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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Week 10 Recap
- Emeka Egbuka: WR2 – 23.5 PPR points (13 targets)
- Deebo Samuel: WR25 – 12.9 PPR points
- Wan’Dale Robinson: WR29 – 12.2 PPR points (10 targets)
- Zay Flowers: WR30 – 12.1 PPR points
- Tetairoa McMillan: WR32 – 11.0 PPR points (8 targets)
- Justin Jefferson: WR41 – 7.7 PPR points (12 targets)
- D.K. Metcalf: WR45 – 6.5 PPR points (7 targets)
- Tre Tucker: WR51 – 5.5 PPR points
In the last decade, this was the third-lowest overall scoring week for the wide receiver position when four or fewer teams were on bye. Drake London had the 36th-best wide receiver performance of the 2025 season so far and finished as the WR1 in Week 10 with 24.4 PPR points, highlighting the struggle wide receivers faced this past week.
Potential Breakouts: Week 11
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
WR D.K. Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers – vs. Cincinnati Bengals
After a seven-target, 22.5% target-share performance, Metcalf makes the list again and has a great matchup versus a Bengals defense that has struggled this season. The Bengals are ranked sixth-worst in team PFF coverage grade and fifth-worst in team PFF pass-rush grade. They also allow the sixth-highest rate of open targets to opposing wide receivers and the ninth-highest EPA per play on targets to wide receivers.
WR Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers – vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers currently rank 27th in pass rate (57.4%) and 31st in passing yards per attempt (5.66). These are not conducive to a successful passing environment, no matter how good your PWOPR is. McMillan ranks 12th in season-long PWOPR and seventh in actual WOPR, but currently sits as WR23 in total PPR points.
In games where Carolina is forced to pass the ball, McMillan has WR1 upside. This week’s matchup against the Falcons poses another challenge for McMillan, as teams have been choosing to run the ball against Atlanta (third-highest rush rate faced) — potentially obstructing his target volume.
WR Wan’Dale Robinson, New York Giants – vs. Green Bay Packers
Robinson had a respectable performance in Week 10, but based on his superb Week 10 PWOPR (.678 — ninth-best), he should be scoring more fantasy points. The Giants enter this week in one of the more interesting spots, as Jameis Winston is set to be the starter. In 2024, Winston had 40-plus pass attempts in five of the seven games he started. I doubt this trend continues, but new head coach Mike Kafka might just let Winston air it out against a superior Packers team that has faced the eighth-highest pass rate this season.
WR Justin Jefferson & Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings – vs. Chicago Bears
Justin Jefferson had a 42% catchable-target rate in Week 10 (5/12). J.J. McCarthy currently has the worst accurate throw percentage in the 2025 season at 47.3%. He is the only quarterback below 50% with at least 100 dropbacks. Moreover, since 2020, he ranks eighth-worst in accurate-throw percentage. I mention these metrics, as they affect the entire passing game. But if McCarthy improves, we should see massive upgrades from a Vikings passing attack that has many elite receiving options.
This is a great week to start playing better, as the Bears rank eighth-worst in team PFF coverage grade and 11th-worst in team PFF pass-rush grade. They allow the second-highest EPA per play to wide receivers and the highest yards per reception. Combine these metrics with the fact that the Bears surrender the sixth-most single-coverage situations to develop, and this is a fantastic matchup for both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison if McCarthy can accurately throw the ball.
TE Kyle Pitts & WR Darnell Mooney, Atlanta Falcons – vs. Carolina Panthers
Similar to McCarthy, Penix has struggled getting the ball to his receivers. Currently, he has a 53.9% accurate throw percentage, which slots as the second-worst in 2025. In Week 10, Darnell Mooney had an impressive eight targets, but only two were considered catchable. Mooney posted a very respectable .54 PWOPR (24th overall), and Pitts tallied a .494 (33rd overall) figure, but the disconnect between them and Penix caused them both to end up in my positive regression model this week.
The Falcons lost 30-0 last time they played the Panthers, when Penix had a 29.3 PFF passing grade (fourth-worst week for any QB this season). Yet, this should be a good matchup for the Falcons’ passing attack. The Panthers are an average coverage unit (ranking 16th in team PFF coverage grade) but have the third-worst team PFF pass-rush grade. If Penix is willing to target Pitts, he should have a day, as the Panthers allow the highest EPA per play to tight ends and hold the worst PFF coverage grade on targets to the position.
WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders – vs. Dallas Cowboys
Tucker ranked 20th in Week 10 PWOPR (.557) while only scoring 5.5 PPR points. Tucker and the Raiders draw the Cowboys this week, who have been problematic on defense. The Cowboys currently have the second-worst team PFF coverage grade and an average pass-rush grade (15th). Dallas has particularly struggled against wide receivers, giving up the highest EPA per play and the highest percentage of open targets to the position. The biggest obstacle for Tucker will be if the Raiders lean into their run game, as Dallas owns the second-lowest team PFF run-defense grade.
WR Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders – vs. Miami Dolphins
Samuel helped his fantasy score out last week with a touchdown, but outside of that one play, he underwhelmed — only earning four receptions and 29 yards. The Commanders travel to Madrid to face the Dolphins, who have been bad in coverage this season, ranking as the seventh-worst team PFF coverage grade and having the most missed tackles versus wide receivers. Teams have been choosing to run the ball on the Dolphins, as they have the seventh-highest rate of runs faced. This works out as a solid matchup for Samuel, who is particularly good at forcing missed tackles: He ranks fifth in total missed tackles forced among wide receivers.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns – vs. Baltimore Ravens
Coming off a very good fantasy week (19.8 PPR points) and a superb opportunity week (12 targets), Jeudy’s fantasy status should be ascending. His actual WOPR and his season-long PWOPR both rank 19th-best, while his PPR FPpG is just 71st (7.5). Similar to McCarthy and Penix, Dillon Gabriel has struggled with accuracy, holding the eighth-worst accurate throw percentage this season. If Gabriel and the Browns can fix his accuracy issues, Jeudy could be in store for a phenomenal resurgence in the second half of the season.
This week, he matches up against the Ravens, who have the 11th-best team PFF coverage grade but have issues generating pass rush, with the fourth-worst team PFF pass-rush grade. Week 12 is another great matchup for Jeudy as long as Gabriel can get the ball to him.
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