• QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco’s defensive injuries offer Murray a winnable Week 15 matchup.
• QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens: Lawrence’s high-ankle sprain severely impedes his ability to throw on the move.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
NFL Week 15 action is here. For fantasy football managers who passed on the elite quarterback tier, start-and-sit decisions must now be made. Below are two quarterbacks with advantageous matchups to target, two quarterbacks with difficult matchups to avoid and one streaming option possessing a top-12 finish in their range of outcomes.
QB Matchups to Target
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers
Murray is set to build on his pre-Week 13-bye season-best 79.2 PFF grade in a high-scoring shootout against San Francisco’s injury-depleted defense. He is a high-end Week 15 QB1.
The game’s 47.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 15’s second highest.
#FTTB recently lost star safety Talanoa Hufanga + his primary backup, George Odum
DT Arik Armstead (foot/knee) sidelined
Week 14 injuries+
DT J. Hargrave, hammy
CB C. Ward, groin
LB O. Burks, knee
LB Dre Greenlaw, hip (returned)
CB D. Lenoir ejected – suspension? https://t.co/PXeGmsXWSj— Nic Bodiford (@NicBodifordNFL) December 11, 2023
San Francisco’s recent safety injuries reduce the defense’s ability to prevent explosive pass plays, and the pass defense further suffered significant personnel hits in Week 14. Interior defenders Arik Armstead (foot/knee) and Javon Hargrave (hamstring strain) have earned 85.1 and 89.9 PFF pass-rushing grades, respectively, both of which rank in the top five among 124 NFL interior defenders with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps. Both are long shots to play this week, as is No. 1 cornerback Charvarius Ward, whose 78.9 PFF coverage grade ranks 10th among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 330 coverage snaps.
The 49ers' linebacker corps devastatingly lost premier coverage defender Oren Burks to a multi-week knee tendinitis issue. His 84.1 PFF coverage grade ranks seventh among 79 NFL linebackers with at least 125 coverage snaps. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw’s 75.5 PFF coverage grade sits 10 spots lower. Both hip and ankle injuries jeopardize his Week 15 availability.
Before Murray’s Week 10 return following ACL reconstruction, Arizona’s offense ranked 29th in success rate (37.5%) and 27th in expected points added per play (-0.167). Thanks to a Herculean effort from the diminutive quarterback, Arizona’s offense ranks 12th in success rate (42.4%) and 16th (-0.043) in EPA per play over the past four weeks. San Francisco’s juggernaut offense ranks second in season-long success rate (49.1%) and first in season-long EPA per play (0.178), signaling an extremely fantasy-friendly game environment.
Fantasy managers should expect Murray’s play to continue to improve following the team’s Week 14 bye. Among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Murray ranks first in turnover-worthy play rate (1.2%) despite a fourth-ranked average depth of target (9.4).
San Francisco’s defensive losses should result in comfortable rushing lanes for Murray and his 79.9 PFF rushing grade, which ranks ninth among 34 NFL quarterbacks with at least 20 rushing attempts. His 0.14 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt ties for 13th and his 4.7 yards per rushing attempt ranks 14th.
Murray has scored green-zone rushing touchdowns in three games this year despite 6-foot-2, 220-pound backup quarterback Clayton Tune stealing one in a specialized Week 10 one-yard-line package.
Murray quietly profiles as an elite Week 15 QB1.
QB Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders
Stafford is scheduled to continue his three-week QB1 hot streak against Washington, carrying into the matchup a ninth-ranked 80.3 PFF passing grade among qualifying NFL quarterbacks.
The game’s 48.5-point FanDuel over/under ties for Week 15’s highest. FanDuel implies Los Angeles to score 27.5 points.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Los Angeles a 22.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, Week 15’s best.
Washington’s dismal defense is surrendering explosive plays at will, and their high-volume passing offense pushes opponents into pass-heavy game scripts. Los Angeles’ own offensive and defensive dynamics mesh well for fantasy purposes, signaling high-scoring fantasy results.
The table below ranks in parentheses Los Angeles' and Washington’s offensive performance data.
| Los Angeles Rams | Washington Commanders | |
| PFF Offense Grade | 76.8 (No. 10) | 70.4 (No. 17) |
| Offensive Plays Per Drive | 5.9 (No. 9) | 5.6 (T-No. 17) |
| Offensive Plays Per Game | 63.9 (T-No. 16) | 65.5 (No. 10) |
| Pass Play % | 60.2% (No. 20) | 70.2% (No. 1) |
| Success % | 44.5% (No. 8) | 42.7% (No. 14) |
| EPA Per Play | 0.023 (No. 9) | -0.092 (No. 24) |
| Explosive Pass Plays % | 15.4% (No. 5) | 12.7% (No. 21) |
The table below ranks in parentheses Los Angeles' and Washington’s defensive performance data.
| Los Angeles Rams | Washington Commanders | |
| PFF Defense Grade | 64.0 (No. 27) | 65.1 (No. 25) |
| Opponent Off. Plays Per Drive | 5.8 (T-No. 21) | 5.8 (No. 17) |
| Opponent Off. Plays Per Game | 64.4 (No. 20) | 63.2 (T-No. 12) |
| Success % Allowed | 43.4% (No. 20) | 42.1% (No. 12) |
| EPA Allowed Per Play | -0.016 (No. 20) | 0.073 (No. 32) |
| Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % | 13.2% (No. 18) | 17.6% (No. 32) |
Washington has a chance to return starting edge rusher James Smith-Williams (hamstring strain) and starting cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr. (elbow), which counterintuitively bodes positively for Stafford. Smith-Williams has just one NFL sack this season and a 50.7 PFF pass-rush grade, which ranks 93rd among 98 edge rushers with at least 145 pass-rushing snaps. Among 102 NFL cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps, Forbes’ 59.9 PFF coverage grade ranks 69th and his 6.3% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks dead last.
The unit lost its highest-graded coverage linebacker, Jamin Davis (56.5 PFF coverage grade), to a season-ending Week 13 shoulder injury.
Among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Stafford ranks ninth in big-time-throw rate (5.8%), fifth in past-the-sticks throwing rate (44.3%) and turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%) and tied for 10th in yards per passing attempt (7.3).
Stafford should routinely produce explosive pass plays this week, solidifying his status as a Week 15 mid-tier QB1.
QB Matchups to Avoid
QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence took the field against the Cleveland Browns last week despite suffering a Week 13 high-ankle sprain. His trademark ability to throw on the run was badly impacted, and his Week 15 prospects are even more grim. Lawrence’s 80.3 PFF passing grade ties for third among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, but he is closer to a borderline QB2/3 in fantasy football than a top-three quarterback against Baltimore.
FanDuel implies Jacksonville will score just 20.0 points.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Jacksonville a -26.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 15’s seventh worst. Baltimore’s pass rush ranks seventh or better in pass-rush win rate (49.6%), quarterback pressure rate (39.9%) and pass-rush productivity (31.6).
Baltimore’s nearly elite pass rush will create problems, and the team's top-tier secondary exchanged No. 1 cornerback Marlon Humphrey’s return for a Week 14 MCL sprain suffered by defensive back Kyle Hamilton.
While Humphrey's 60.2 PFF perimeter coverage grade ties for 44th among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 230 perimeter coverage snaps, his 0.79 yards allowed per coverage snap impressively ties for sixth. Hamilton’s potential loss is notable; his 84.1 PFF slot-coverage grade ranks third among 61 NFL slot defensive backs with at least 100 slot coverage snaps. Cornerback Arthur Maulet’s 58.8 PFF slot coverage grade ranks 41st, but Lawrence is without starting slot receiver Christian Kirk (core muscle surgery), whose 74.6 PFF slot receiving grade ranks seventh among 33 players with at least 155 slot snaps. His 2.18 yards per slot route run ranks third.
The table below compares Lawrence’s passing data when throwing on the move, pre- and post-injury.
| Weeks 1-13 | Week 14, Post-Injury | |
| PFF Passing Grade | 68.5 | 56.7 |
| Big-Time-Throw Rate | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Adj. Comp. % | 72.0% | 50.0% |
| Yards Per Pass Att. | 8.7 | 2.8 |
| Past-The-Sticks Throw % | 41.0% | 0.0% |
Baltimore’s elite coverage unit ranks second in both success rate allowed (39.7%) and EPA allowed per pass play (-0.188) while topping the charts in yards allowed per coverage snap (4.76) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (9.1%).
Fantasy managers should not start Lawrence in Week 15.
QB Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Ridder is coming off a career-high 347 passing yards en route to a QB4 finish, but his Week 14 58.9 PFF offense grade reveals the performance’s fraudulent nature. Carolina’s defense was slowed by mid-season injuries, but the unit’s health significantly improved over the past two weeks, signaling a return to the QB2 range for Ridder. He should not be started in 12-team formats.
The game’s 34.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 15’s second-lowest game total. FanDuel implies Atlanta will score just 18.75 points.
Carolina critically returned No. 1 cornerback Jaycee Horn from injured reserve in Week 13. Horn’s 88.7 PFF perimeter coverage grade ranks fourth among 114 NFL cornerbacks with at least 50 perimeter coverage snaps. PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Atlanta's No. 1 wide receiver Drake London a below-average 26.2 receiving matchup advantage rating against Horn.
Despite Ridder’s career-best sum, his performance yielded below-season-long-average results in both turnover-worthy play rate (6.3% to 5.4%) and adjusted completion rate (69.2% to 71.5%). This bodes poorly for future showings, as his respective season-long averages both fall outside the position’s top 32, ranked among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks.
Ridder likewise inflated his production with a green-zone rushing touchdown; his 3.8 yards per rushing attempt in Week 14 correspondingly falls below his 4.2-yard season-long average.
Ridder is unlikely to reproduce his high-scoring results against Carolina’s recently improved defense.
The table below ranks in parentheses Carolina’s Weeks 13-14 coverage data among NFL teams.
| Carolina Panthers | |
| PFF Coverage Grade | 81.1 (No. 2) |
| Success % Allowed | 39.7% (No. 11) |
| EPA Allowed Per Play | -0.237 (No. 7) |
| Catch % Allowed | 66.7% (T-No. 14) |
| Forced Incompletion % | 18.8% (No. 3) |
| Yards Allowed Per Coverage Snap | 5.53 (No. 10) |
| Explosive Pass Plays Allowed % | 8.6% (No. 6) |
Ridder should not be started in 12-team formats.
Streamer of the Week
QB Jake Browning, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning repeats as the week’s premier streaming option after producing an 83.3 PFF offense grade in Week 14, the second-best mark. Browning’s remarkable play against the blitz coupled with his green-zone rushing efficacy warrants a top-12 positional ranking against Minnesota’s blitz-dependent defense.
FanDuel implies Cincinnati will score 21.25 points as 3.5-point home favorites.
PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Cincinnati a 20.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 15’s second best.
PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives No. 1 wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase an excellent 87.9 receiving matchup advantage rating, Week 15’s third best.
Minnesota’s 54.4% blitz rate is the only such rate in the NFL over 48.0%, and although the team’s 20 NFL sacks via the blitz rank second, their blitz-based efficiency metrics rank 26th or worse — 38.0% pass-rush win rate, 36.6% quarterback pressure rate and 28.7 pass-rush productivity score. The unit’s performance on non-blitzed pass-rushing snaps is even worse, ranking 26th in sacks (14.5), 31st in pass-rush win rate (32.4%) and dead last in both quarterback pressure rate (22.7%) and pass-rush productivity (17.9).
Minnesota’s ineffectual blitz dependency ensures a high-volume, fruitful showing for Browning.
Browning dynamically dices up defenses when blitzed.
The table below ranks in parentheses Browning’s passing data on blitzed dropbacks among 46 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 blitzed dropbacks.
| Jake Browning | |
| PFF Passing Grade | 84.7 (No. 3) |
| Big-Time-Throw % | 6.7% (T-No. 3) |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 0.0% (T-No. 1) |
| Past-The-Sticks Throwing Rate | 51.8% (No. 5) |
| Adjusted Completion % | 78.3% (No. 8) |
| Yards Per Pass Att. | 9.1 (No. 4) |
Extra rushers are not required for Browning to perform at a high level. Among 42 NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, Browning ranks 11th in turnover-worthy play rate (2.4%), second in both yards per passing attempt (9.1) and first in adjusted completion rate (83.3%).
Browning also demonstrates above-average rushing ability, particularly in the green zone. He has converted both of his rushing attempts from the opponent’s one-yard line over the past two weeks. Among 43 NFL quarterbacks with at least 12 rushing attempts, Browning ranks tied for 13th in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.15), fifth in explosive run play rate (23.1%), fourth in yards per rushing attempt (5.9) and first in yards after contact per rushing attempt (5.7).
Browning is a Week 15 QB1.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.