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DraftKings NFC Conference Championship Showdown: Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Tampa, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) celebrates after completing a pass during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a NFC Divisional playoff football game at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format. The format blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing six players.

The biggest wrinkle of the format is the ability to choose one captain (CPT), who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format, with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.


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This season, I will analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines, and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.

There are five main components to this conference championship playoff round Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

  • A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers as an illustration of the matching process: 2021 Week 14 when the Minnesota Vikings faced the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Kirk Cousins as Matthew Stafford and Ben Roethlisberger playing Jimmy Garoppolo‘s role.
  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams are based on the results of similar historical matchups.
  • Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2021 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
  • Recent CPT ownership trends are illustrated for both starting lineups.
  • A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups for each player. This allows you to see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.
PFF's new Best Bets Tool allows you to take advantage of the best prop and game betting opportunities for each NFL slate during the 2021 season.

METHODOLOGY

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies to this contest according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration purposes, let’s look at the most similar matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Kirk Cousins QB MIN Matthew Stafford QB LAR
Dalvin Cook RB MIN Cam Akers RB LAR
Justin Jefferson WR MIN Cooper Kupp WR LAR
Tyler Conklin TE MIN Tyler Higbee TE LAR
Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT Jimmy Garoppolo QB SF
Najee Harris RB PIT Eli Mitchell RB SF
Diontae Johnson WR PIT Deebo Samuel WR SF
Pat Freiermuth TE PIT George Kittle TE SF

The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Vikings -3.5, 44.5 O/U versus this matchup at Rams -3.5, 45.5 O/U). All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this showdown slate, would have been:

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Dalvin Cook MIN RB CPT 38.2
Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB FLEX 26.8
Najee Harris PIT RB FLEX 25.4
Justin Jefferson MIN WR FLEX 20.9
Chase Claypool PIT WR FLEX 17.5
K.J. Osborn MIN WR FLEX 17.3

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold, assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

Related content for you:

2022 NFL Conference Championship DFS Cheat Sheet: All contests via Andrew Erickson

CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN

The most unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for a competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT. Should you always choose a QB who typically has the highest absolute fantasy scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable options? RB versus WR?

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