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2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: Jonathan Taylor still has a sky-high ceiling in 2023

2H99NEE Houston, TX, USA. 5th Dec, 2021. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) carries the ball during the 1st quarter of an NFL football game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. Trask Smith/CSM/Alamy Live News

  • Jonathan Taylor requests a trade: Like most running backs, Taylor isn’t happy with his contract. Based on the owners' unwillingness to trade him and the recent running back market, we’ll largely assume he remains on the Colts and shows up right before Week 1.
  • Taylor could lead the league in rushing yards: Taylor is at his peak where other volume runners are getting older, which could lead to Taylor being the best rusher this season.
  • Having Anthony Richardson could hurt his fantasy value: Shane Steichen’s offense the last two seasons saw a quarterback sneak for 1-2 yards better than anyone else, and now with the Colts, he has an even bigger quarterback who might take some touchdowns away from Taylor.
Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

The fantasy football outlook series takes an in-depth look at a single player’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. For help on draft strategy, rankings or for more details about other players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.

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Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 31

Jonathan Taylor‘s player outlook

Taylor is one of the league’s best young runners.

  • His 90.8 PFF rushing grade over the last three seasons is fifth-best among running backs with at least 500 carries. Every running back above him is older. Three of the four ahead of him will be 28 or older by the end of the season. 
  • Taylor ranks second best over the last two seasons in rushing yards per game (95.4), yards after contact per game (66.6), rushing touchdowns per game (0.79) and rushing fantasy points per game (13.9).
  • Part of his success is simply volume. His 524 carries over the last two seasons rank fifth despite missing some time last season due to injury, which includes 39 carries when the Colts have been within five yards of scoring — most for a running back. He’s converted 15 of those into touchdowns.
  • The other part of his success has been breaking runs into big plays, as 13.5% of his carries have gained at least 10 yards over the last two seasons, which ranks fifth-most.
  • Similarly, he’s turned 3.6% of his carries into 20 or more yards, and 1.7% into 30 or more, ranking fourth and second-best respectively.
  • This has only added up to the fourth-most PPR points per game among running backs over the last two years 18.5 due to his limited work as a receiver.
  • He’s consistently averaged 2.4-2.5 receptions per game for a career 18.7 receiving yards per game.
  • Taylor dealt with a high ankle sprain last season, which forced him to have surgery in January and miss organized team activities this summer.
  • He started training camp on the A/PUP list, but it’s at least possible this has more to do with Taylor holding out for a new contract than it does the ankle injury. Typically, a player would have fully recovered by this point.

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