NFL Week 15 Recap: Immediate fantasy football takeaways from Saturday's games

• Battle of the backup quarterbacks: The first two games of the day include four backup quarterbacks starting, with Nick Mullens against Jake Browning for the Minnesota Vikings and Cincinnati Bengals and then Mitchell Trubisky and Gardner Minshew for the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts.

• Minnesota’s offense benefits with Justin Jefferson back: Both Jefferson and Jordan Addison reached 50 receiving yards, which they’ve done in every game this season when playing at least 60% of offensive snaps.

• Chase Brown leads the Bengals’ backfield: The rookie running back was the primary ball carrier for Cincinnati over Joe Mixon before a trip to the blue medical tent.

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Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Jordan Addison: 6 receptions, 111 yards, 2 touchdowns
• Ty Chandler: 23 carries, 132 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 25 receiving yards

Ty Chandler leads the way for Minnesota: Alexander Mattison was inactive with an ankle injury.

• Mattison has led the backfield all season. Chandler started the season as the backup, fell to a third-stringer when the Vikings traded for Cam Akers and became the backup again once Akers landed on injured reserve.
• With Mattison out, Chandler became the every-down back. Kene Nwangwu took a few plays at a time and C.J. Ham took a few snaps on third-and-long, as he’s done all season, but Chandler dominated snaps in a way we haven’t seen from a Vikings running back since early in the season.
• Chandler’s rushing yardage total was the best by a Vikings running back in a game this season. He also scored his second rushing touchdown of the year, leading the Vikings' running backs. Akers scored once, and Mattison hasn’t run for a touchdown all season.
• The Vikings face the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers over the next two weeks. The Lions matchup isn’t great, but the Packers matchup will be good, assuming Mattison isn’t back by then.
• It is worth holding onto Chandler in case he is a starter in that game. Even if Mattison returns this season, he might not be at 100%. As such, Chandler could remain the starter.

Justin Jefferson is back: Jefferson played his first full game since Week 5.

• He missed seven games while on injured reserve with a hamstring injury. He returned last week but lasted only 13 snaps before suffering a chest injury that kept him out for the rest of the game.
• Jefferson returned to his usual role at the top of the Vikings’ depth chart, taking a few plays off for runs. He led the team in targets, catching seven passes for 84 yards.
• Jordan Addison was second on the depth chart, playing in two-wide receiver sets. He played the same role last week when Jefferson was healthy but was only featured in 11 personnel during the first five weeks of the season.
• K.J. Osborn was relegated to the third wide receiver spot while Brandon Powell, who had been the slot receiver for most of the season, didn’t play at all on offense.
• Osborn was losing snaps last week to Jalen Nailor, but Nailor was inactive for this game after suffering a concussion last week.
• Jefferson can safely be put in fantasy starting lineups, Addison will remain a borderline starter and Osborn and Powell shouldn’t be considered going forward.

The Bengals’ two-back committee: Chase Brown spent most of the game leading the backfield in both carries and targets.

• Brown barely played the first six weeks and then missed four games on injured reserve. He returned in Week 12, cut into Mixon’s playing time in Week 13 and took over for Trayveon Williams in Week 14.
• Mixon was the starting running back, but whenever Brown subbed in, he was typically the player receiving the ball.
• He ran the ball six times in the first three quarters, compared to four carries for Mixon. He also led in targets, three to one.
• Brown left for the blue medical tent late in the third quarter and didn’t return to the game again until late in the fourth quarter. This led Mixon to finish the game as the team leader in carries.
• The Bengals face the Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs over the next two weeks — two average matchups.
• Assuming Brown’s injury isn’t too serious, he is worth a waiver wire target in case he continues his ascension next week. That would make him a potential start option in Week 17.

Monitor Ja’Marr Chase’s health: Chase left for the locker room at the two-minute warning with a shoulder injury.

• Chase’s playing time was normal before that point, and he was leading the team in receiving yards (64) off four receptions.
• Chase returned to the sidelines for overtime out of uniform.
• Trenton Irwin was Chase’s initial replacement, but the Bengals used all three backup wide receivers during the last two minutes. They similarly used all three of their backup wide receivers for a few snaps each throughout the game.
• Considering how much the Bengals were willing to rotate players, it’s better to leave Irvin and others on the waiver wire if the Chase injury is serious.
• If Chase misses time, that would mean a higher target share for Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, so both players would be worth considering more than usual.

Miscellaneous Notes

• This game featured the two players who aren’t quarterbacks or halfbacks who have taken the most backfield snaps on third downs this season. C.J. Ham had 53 backfield snaps on third downs this season before this game, and Drew Sample had 36. No one else in the NFL has more than 20.
• This is partially why neither team’s primary running backs get too involved in the passing game on third downs.
• T.J. Hockenson’s playing time was limited at times in November due to a rib injury, but this was the second straight game where he played more than usual.
• Tee Higgins’ playing time was also somewhat limited throughout October and November due to injuries, but this was his highest percentage of offensive snaps since September.
• Higgins scored twice in this game, making it the second time he has done so this season. He hasn’t had a single game this year with only one touchdown reception.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

• Diontae Johnson: 4 receptions, 62 yards, 1 touchdown
• D.J. Montgomery: 2 receptions, 48 yards, 1 touchdown

Monitor Zack Moss’ health: The Colts’ starting running back left the game after being brought down by a horsecollar tackle on his touchdown reception. He didn’t return.

• At first, he was officially questionable to return with a right arm injury. He was ruled out late in the third quarter.
• He played 100% of the offensive snaps before the injury, recording 13 yards from four carries and 20 yards and the touchdown across on receptions.
• The Colts proceeded to use a two-man running back rotation with Trey Sermon and Tyler Goodson. Both players played a few snaps before the other took over. 
• The two backups were much more effective than Moss has been in recent weeks. Sermon ran 17 times for 88 yards, while Goodson ran 11 times for 69 yards. Even if Moss is healthy next week, we might see a bit more of a rotation at the position.
• Next week, the Colts play an Atlanta Falcons defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs. This will probably be a situation to avoid unless Jonathan Taylor is ready to play.

Monitor Michael Pittman Jr.’s health: Pittman suffered a concussion in the second quarter and was quickly ruled out.

• Pittman played 100% of the offensive snaps — as usual — before the injury. He got off to a great start, catching four passes for 78 yards.
• While Josh Downs took his place for one play immediately after the injury, D.J. Montgomery took his place for the rest of the game.
• Montgomery was an undrafted free agent who signed with the Cleveland Browns in 2019. He played three games for the New York Jets in 2021 and had taken a few snaps in each of the last three games for the Colts. He had three career receptions heading into this game.
• Montgomery must have played well enough in practice recently because veteran Isaiah McKenzie was a healthy inactive for the first time this season. 
• Montgomery caught two passes for 48 yards and a touchdown.
• While there is a decent chance Pittman misses a game, the Colts will soon take on a Falcons defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Anyone who needs a replacement for Pittman next week might be better off looking at a wide receiver from another team.

Jaylen Warren leads the Steelers' backfield: Najee Harris received more playing time than Warren in recent weeks, but that trend reversed in Week 15.

• Warren racked up 230 yards and two touchdowns across 24 carries from Week 10 to Week 11. After the firing of Matt Canada, he seemed destined for a larger role. But instead, he was clearly behind Harris in Weeks 12 and 13.
• He played 53% of the offensive snaps last week, the highest mark of his career and only his third game above 50%-plus snap share. He averaged 1.6 yards per carry in that game but caught four passes for 29 yards.
• Tonight, he played well over 53% of the offensive snaps. He led the team in rushing yards and yards per carry and he led the team in receptions.
• The game script was in favor of Warren receiving a lot of snaps, but the Steelers have been in this game script before, and he’s never played this frequently.
• The Pittsburgh Steelers’ remaining games are against the Cincinnati Bengals and Seattle Seahawks. Both should be competitive games where we also see a lot of Warren, and both of those teams have allowed a decent amount of production to running backs. This could push Warren to being a fantasy starter in some leagues.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Mitch Trubisky was benched with two minutes left in favor of Mason Rudolph. There is a chance Rudolph will start next week.
• Will Mallory had been heavily involved in the tight end rotation in recent weeks. He put up the most fantasy points of his career last week (9.6 points) but was a clear fourth in the rotation in this game.
• Pat Freiermuth took a higher percentage of offensive snaps in this game compared to other recent weeks, which was likely game-script-related.

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions

• Sam LaPorta: 5 receptions, 56 yards, 3 touchdowns
• Jahmyr Gibbs: 10 carries, 96 yards, 1 touchdown; 2 receptions, 8 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown

Jameson Williams becomes more involved: Williams took to the field more than usual and saw more targets than usual.

• Williams returned from his suspension in Week 5. By Week 10, he was consistently playing over 50% of the offensive snaps, typically rotating with Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond for the second, third and fourth wide receiver spots behind Amon-Ra St. Brown.
• His target share was 12% or less in five of the eight games in which he ran at least 15 routes.
• He has only two games with three-plus targets. He saw six targets in Week 7, but only two of those six were catchable, and he dropped both of them.
• His other three-plus-target game was tonight. He was targeted seven times for a career-high four receptions.
• His playing time hasn’t changed much in 11 personnel, but over the last two weeks, he’s consistently been on the field in 12 personnel.
• The Lions used less 13 and 21 personnel than usual this week, which are personnel groupings Williams typically isn’t on the field for, which also helped Williams’ playing time.
• Williams played 73% of offensive snaps in the first three quarters. He suffered an injury at the start of the fourth quarter and was able to return, but it likely impacted his playing time. 
• He still shouldn't be in line for a starting spot in 2023, but it’s at least good to build some positive momentum for 2024.

Denver still doesn’t have an answer at tight end: The Broncos have recently made changes at tight end, but they haven't led to more production.

• Heading into Week 15, the Broncos' tight ends accounted for 29 receptions, the second-fewest among offenses. Every other team has at least 40.
• Adam Trautman has spent most of the season as the team’s primary receiving tight end, but his 0.5 yards per route run before this week ranked last among the 26 tight ends with at least 250 routes.
• Denver elevated former New Orleans Saint Lucas Krull from the practice squad in Week 10 to play in clear passing situations. He didn’t catch his only target and stayed on the practice squad for the following two weeks.
• He was elevated again for Weeks 13 and 14 and caught a 35-yard pass last week. He was signed to the 53-man roster today. 
• Trautman and Krull each caught one pass as the Broncos attempted their comeback, but the two tight end receptions are still well below league average.
• Greg Dulcich‘s three-week practice window has opened. He practiced in full on Wednesday but didn’t practice on Thursday.
• It might be too late for Dulcich to help any fantasy managers this year, but he can at least greatly improve his 2024 fantasy draft stock if he returns and has a good game.

Miscellaneous Notes

• Jerry Jeudy missed some time in the fourth quarter after taking a big hit, but they put him back on the field for the last two minutes despite the Broncos having no chance of winning, so he is likely fine.
• Jaleel McLaughlin started over Javonte Williams for the second time this season, the first time coming when Williams first returned from injury. However, Williams was still the clear top running back throughout the game.
• Lions backup tight end Brock Wright suffered a groin injury and didn’t return. Third-string James Mitchell took over in two-tight end sets over the rest of the game. Sam LaPorta consistently plays around 85% of offensive snaps, so this had a minimal impact on his playing time.
• LaPorta is up to 70 receptions, surpassing Kyle Pitts for third all-time in receptions by a rookie tight end. He needs 12 in the last three weeks to surpass Keith Jackson and Jeremy Shockey for most all-time.
• LaPorta is also up to nine receiving touchdowns after his three-touchdown game, moving him to third all-time for rookie tight ends. He’s one touchdown behind Rob Gronkowski in 2010 and three behind Mike Ditka in 1961.

Table Notes

• Snaps include plays called back due to penalties, including offensive holding or defensive pass interference. The other three stats have these plays removed.
• Targets may differ from official NFL sources. The most likely discrepancy would be from a clear thrown-away pass, where the NFL may give the target to the nearest receiver, while this data will not.
• Carries are only on designed plays. Quarterback scrambles won’t count for the total number of carries in the game.