To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.
We nailed the Taysom Hill–Alvin Kamara stack last week, as the duo poured it on against the hapless New York Jets. But, unfortunately, we whiffed on James Robinson, who only saw an incomprehensible six touches. Mercifully, the Urban Meyer era is over in Jacksonville, so perhaps Robinson will finally get to shine like the star he is.
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WR Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams (4% projected rostership)
The Rams have been ravaged by COVID-19, and they are likely to be missing Odell Beckham Jr. this week. That only condenses the team’s target distribution and makes both Jefferson and Cooper Kupp outstanding DFS plays.
Kupp will rightfully be the highest-rostered player in all DFS tournaments on Sunday — he is currently popping at 29% in rostership projections, and that number will rise throughout the weekend. This creates an incredible leverage opportunity for rosters that include Jefferson instead of Kupp.
If Jefferson reaches his ceiling outcome of 100 yards and multiple touchdowns, then it is highly unlikely Kupp matches that production and pays off his exorbitant $9,000 price on DraftKings and FanDuel. In this Jefferson smash hypothetical, you are not only capturing a monster DFS score at extremely low rostership, but you are also actively hurting every single Kupp roster and maximizing your path to the top of the leaderboard.
The Seahawks defense is a pass funnel. Here is the production they are allowing this season.
|518 pass attempts||31st|
|3,770 passing yards||32nd|
|2,107 yards after the catch||32nd|
WR Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans (3% projected rostership)
Jones unsurprisingly imploded as chalk in his return to action last week. His usage metrics paint the picture of a veteran player being eased back into action, as he ran a route on 59% of Ryan Tannehill’s dropbacks in a Titans blowout. The future Hall of Famer is significantly more likely to see a usage spike against a Steelers defense that has surrendered 36, 19, 41 and 41 total points in their last four games.
Check out the passing production they have allowed since Week 10:
|7.8 yards per attempt||29th|
|30 catches of 15-plus yards||32nd|
|19% rate of catches for 15-plus yards||32nd|
Over that four-game stretch, Pittsburgh has allowed the following notable receiving lines.
- Justin Jefferson: 7-79-1
- K.J. Osborn: 3-83-1
- Tee Higgins: 6-114-1
- Mike Williams: 5-97-1
- Keenan Allen: 9-112
This is a very high-risk, high-reward play that could launch your roster to the top of the leaderboards. Jones can be stacked with Tannehill and correlated with any combination of Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool or Najee Harris.
TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons (6% projected rostership)
The Falcons' rookie tight end has not done much of anything since his 163-yard outburst back in Week 7. However, he is still seeing consistent usage, with at least five targets in every game. Pitts is due for an eruption game and perhaps it comes against a 49ers defense that has been a pass funnel over the last six weeks.
Here is the production San Francisco is allowing through the air over that stretch.
|1,526 passing yards||30th|
|7.7 yards per attempt||29th|
|39 catches of 15-plus yards||30th|
The 49ers have given up these notable receiving lines since Week 9:
- Tee Higgins: 5-114
- Ja’Marr Chase: 5-77-2
- Tyler Lockett: 7-68-1
- Cooper Kupp: 11-122
- Christian Kirk: 6-91
George Kittle is coming off back-to-back explosions and will be the most rostered tight end by a landslide. Pivoting to Pitts in the same game offers an extra strategic advantage if correlated with a different 49ers skill player, either Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or Elijah Mitchell. This 49ers and Falcons game is definitely one to target, with the second-highest point total (46) on the main slate.
PFF’s fantasy projections are high on Pitts and rank him as the No. 3 tight end this week.