Fantasy News & Analysis

NFL Week 14 DFS tournament picks

Jacksonville Jaguars running back is wrapped up by James Robinson (25) San Francisco 49ers linebacker Marcell Harris (36) during the second quarter at TIAA Bank Field Sunday, Nov. 21, 2021 in Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the San Francisco 49ers during a regular season NFL game. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki Cp Jags 49ers 43

To win a DFS tournament, building a unique roster that embraces the randomness within each NFL game is essential. We must identify players and game scenarios the rest of the field is overlooking so that when these low-rostered plays hit, rosters soar past the competition and into first place.

Last week, we nailed the Antonio Gibson play and a Kirk CousinsJustin Jefferson stack. Jefferson was the crown jewel, as he broke the slate with a monster 11-182-1 receiving line — the tournament-winning upside we should be chasing.

Here are this week's DFS tournament picks. Be sure to check out PFF's projected DFS rostership percentages and DFS lineup optimizer to help you rack up those massive scores.

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RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (9% Projected Rostership)

Jacobs is approaching bell-cow territory. The Raiders' star running back racked up a career-high nine receptions on nine targets last week — on top of a 13-52-1 rushing line — and tallied 112 total yards with a touchdown on 24 touches two weeks ago. And we can project Jacobs to be involved in any game script this week, given that Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Jalen Richard is dealing with COVID-19.

Jacobs boasts a matchup against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that Denver's Javonte Williams just shredded. The Raiders' best chance to win this game is to control the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines by pounding the football with Jacobs.

Here is the rushing production Kansas City is allowing this season: 

PFF Metric Rank
85 rushing first downs 22nd
2.9 yards after contact per attempt 28th
4.6 yards per carry 29th

PFF’s consensus fantasy rankings have Jacobs as the overall RB6 this week. PFF's fantasy projections are even higher at overall RB5.

Lock Jacobs into your roster as a high-floor and high-upside option you can surround with riskier low-floor and high-ceiling players.

QB Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints (5% Projected Rostership)

It is hardly ever pretty, but Hill always racks up fantasy points when he is under center. Last Thursday’s performance is the perfect example, as he scored over 20 fantasy points despite tossing four interceptions and looking mostly dreadful for the entire game.

The simple fact is that rushing quarterbacks remain a cheat code in fantasy football.

Let’s take advantage of Hill’s rushing ability this week as he sets his sights on a terrible New York Jets defense. The Saints quarterback is dealing with a finger injury, which should lead Sean Payton to craft a game plan built around utilizing Hill’s legs. The return of Alvin Kamara should only open lanes on the ground even more.

The Jets run defense is the gift that keeps on giving in fantasy football. Philadelphia's Miles Sanders popped them for 142 total yards last week, while Kenneth Gainwell tacked on another 87 yards and a touchdown.

Here is the rushing production the Jets have allowed this season:

Data Rank
1,601 yards allowed 30th
46 runs of 10-plus yards 29th
4.5 yards per carry 27th
21 touchdowns 32nd

Hill is far too cheap on DraftKings at $5,600 and $7,700 on FanDuel, and we all know paying down at quarterback allows fantasy managers to jam in other expensive studs in great matchups. For example, use Hill at quarterback and stack up the Bills and Bucs skill players in a potential shootout.

Fantasy analysts Ian Hartitz, Andrew Erickson and Nathan Jahnke rank Hill as a top-10 quarterback in their Week 14 fantasy rankings. PFF’s strength of schedule rating gives New Orleans the sixth-best rushing matchup this week.

PFF’s WR/CB Matchup Chart is a fantasy football tool you can use to help set the best lineups. You can toggle between showing the Matchup Advantage column against all projected coverage or the individual defenders.

RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (3% Projected Rostership)

The squeaky-wheel narrative is in full force with James Robinson this week. He is indisputably the Jaguars' best offensive player yet was stunningly benched for Carlos Hyde after an early fumble against the Rams. Of course, when Hyde fumbled later in the game, he simply trotted right back out there for the very next series. There is seemingly no rhyme or reason to anything happening in Jacksonville right now.

Robinson is not happy. He sat down earlier this week with Action Sports Jax, a local radio station, and openly petitioned for the football.

Even his teammates are standing by his side, most notably Trevor Lawrence:

Urban Meyer is at risk of losing his team’s locker room if he continues with this charade any longer. He spoke about a productive conversation with Robinson after reviewing highlights from their game against the Titans earlier this season. Tennessee smashed the Jaguars 37-19, but Robinson looked like a true superstar with an 18-149-1 rushing line.

Tennessee possesses a middling rush defense, which has surrendered 2.9 rushing yards after contact per attempt (26th among defenses) and 12 rushing touchdowns (21st).

PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals betting opportunities (“edges”) within game bet and player prop markets. The higher the edge, the greater the opportunity.

This is an extremely risky play that nobody will be on. After all, Robinson is more likely to score 5 fantasy points than 25. However, there is the very real scenario that Jacksonville decides to feature Robinson with 20-plus touches in a determined effort to restore the relationship with their star back.

Chase that 25-fantasy-point upside at Robinson’s very affordable price of $5,800 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel. 

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