If you go bold, take big risks on every choice in fantasy football, odds are great you’ll lose. The simple truth is that, by and large, it’s smart to agree with the consensus. It’s the consensus for a reason, and the wisdom of the crowd means that, usually, venturing too far afield means you got lost in the wilderness.
But you can’t follow the crowd every time.
Everybody has players on whom they plant their flag each season. For some, it’s just their favorite players and favorite teams. For the PFF Fantasy analysts, though, it’s the guys who stand out because of the particular analysis don’t by each writer.
All week long, some of our writers — Scott Barrett, Tyler Loechner, Walton Spurlin, Pat Thorman, George Kritikos, and me — have been offering up their bold predictions for the 2017 season. These predictions weren’t dart throws or random guesses; they were borne of the depths of our data, and more research than, honestly, is really healthy.
Below are the highlights of the week — each writer’s self-selected single boldest call. Follow the links below to each writer’s full bold predictions piece. And save the below. Either you’ll come back in the winter to tell us how smart we were, or come back in the winter to tell us how dumb we are. Either way, it’s good to come back.
Kenny Britt will outscore at least 30 wide receivers being drafted ahead of him.
(From Scott Barrett’s bold predictions)
Britt currently has an ADP of WR50 in PPR leagues. Last season he finished 27th at the position, and 26th on a point-per-game basis. This discrepancy (in ADP and fantasy finish) is one of the five highest at the position.
This impressive finish was despite having, arguably, the toughest cornerback schedule in the league. Last season, Britt ran 35.7 percent of his routes against top-25-graded cornerbacks, the highest rate in the league.
His ranking looks even more impressive when also factoring in the poor quarterback play he was saddled with last season. Collectively, Los Angeles quarterbacks averaged a passer rating of 70.4 — the second-lowest rating in the league. Still, Britt managed to rise far above it. When Rams passers targeted Britt last season, they averaged a passer rating of 96.2. When targeting all other Rams receivers, they averaged a passer rating of 63.9. This was the largest positive differential for all wide receivers last season.
Although quarterback play is still a concern, as is strength of schedule, it’s reassuring to know he overcame both obstacles last season.
Finally, Britt should benefit from a lack of target competition surrounding him, assuming Josh Gordon is not reinstated. Active tight ends on the Browns roster currently combine to amass only 12 career receptions at the NFL level. Among active wide receivers, outside of Britt, Corey Coleman is the only wide receiver on the roster with more than 20 career receptions. Though Coleman is currently being drafted ahead of Britt, Britt was given WR1 money this offseason, and in my mind, is the far more likely choice to lead the team in targets. Battling a hamstring injury this Spring, early reports indicate Coleman’s role as even the No. 2 wide receiver on the team may be in jeopardy.
Coleman struggled last season, albeit dealing with injuries and poor quarterback play. He ranked bottom-20 in yards per route run, WR rating, and yards-per-target average. He had just three receptions of 25 or more yards last season, which ranked 73rd at the position. This accounted for 39 percent of his total yards, and came against two of our bottom-20-graded cornerbacks.
Leonard Fournette will be the No. 5 rookie fantasy RB this year in PPR leagues
(From Tyler Loechner’s bold predictions)
I’ve hitched my wagon to the Fournette-is-overrated-as-a-rookie wagon, so why not just double down and tighten the screws?
Fournette is obviously a good player, but he’s also obviously on a bad team with a terrible quarterback. If you want to see my whole case against Fournette, check out the link above.
Even though I currently have Fournette ranked as my No. 1 rookie running back, I could still see Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, and one of the other rising running backs — including the aforementioned Kareem Hunt or Marlon Mack — outscoring Fournette in PPR formats.
Fournette has already re-injured the foot that was problematic in college, and he is set to miss the team’s third preseason game (and likely fourth as well). I’m not in the business of predicting injuries, but a lingering foot issue is an obvious concern. McCaffrey, Cook, and Mixon are all in better positions in terms of how strong their teams are, too, which should lead to more scoring opportunities.
So one year after the No. 4 overall pick in the NFL draft led the league in rushing (Ezekiel Elliott), I’m predicting the newest No. 4 overall pick in the draft (Fournette) to not even finish in the top three among fantasy running backs as a rookie.
Tevin Coleman outscores Devonta Freeman in the second half of 2017
(From Daniel Kelley’s bold predictions)
Let’s run through it, shall we? Coleman bested Freeman in all sorts of advanced stats in 2017. Breakaway percentage? Coleman 40.5, Freeman 37.5. Yards per route run? Coleman 2.58, Freeman 1.59. Pass-blocking efficiency? Coleman 93.9, Freeman 88.4. And remember, just two seasons ago, Coleman actually beat out Freeman for the team’s starting job before he got hurt and Freeman took over. On top of that, Coleman improved over the year last year (3.63 yards per carry through Week 12, 5.43 after).
These things are sometimes overstated, but Falcons head coach Dan Quinn made Tevin Coleman the third-round pick in his first draft in charge of the team, making him “his guy.” Freeman came a year earlier. With Quinn having hand-picked Coleman and new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian having no obvious link to either guy, there’s not really any long-term tie that should lock Freeman into a job. If both stay healthy, I expect Coleman to eventually supplant Freeman atop the Atlanta backfield pecking order.
Joey Bosa will post at least 20 sacks in 2017
(From Walton Spurlin’s bold predictions)
Bam! I said it. If we’re making bold predictions, then we may as well go big or go home. Bosa will add his name alongside such legends as Michael Strahan, Jarred Allen, Mark Gastineau and J.J. Watt (twice) as defensive ends who have posted 20 sacks in a season.
After missing the first four games due to a contract dispute Bosa hit the ground running, racking up 4 sacks in his first three NFL games. Bosa also closed the season strong, posting at least one sack in each of the final five games of the season and finishing his rookie campaign with 10.5 sacks.
Bosa has great quickness off the snap and proved capable of getting to the quarterback from both the left as well as right end. Although he lined up on the left more often (roughly 67 percent of the time) Bosa did post 4 sacks from the right end. Bosa was also credited with 11 quarterback hits and another 37 quarterback hurries, so the upside is there to easily surpass his 2016 production.
Bosa will also benefit from an entire training camp and preseason working under new defensive coordinator Gus Bradley and the new 4-3 scheme he’ll be in. Bradley will utilize his talented DE all along the front creating mismatches for Bosa. The presence of Melvin Ingram lining up opposite Bosa is also a huge boost as Ingram had 8 sacks along with 10 QB hits and 54 QB hurries a year ago.
Offensive coordinators will not be able to double team Bosa with Ingram bringing consistent pressure as well. Bosa is only 22 years old and set to challenge J.J. Watt for the league lead in sacks in 2017. Yes. I said that, too.
Tom Brady takes back the single-season touchdown record
(From Pat Thorman’s bold predictions)
It won’t be easy, as Peyton Manning beat Brady’s then-record 50 by five. In 2007, Brady threw 15 touchdowns from inside the 5-yard line. Lately, it has been half that total, at best. He paced at 37.3 touchdowns last year. Add several more layups, throw in a healthy Gronk and Brandin Cooks, and 56 is in sight. Even with Julian Edelman gone, what else does he have left to prove?
All four NFC West teams end up with a 1,000-yard rusher
(From George Kritikos’ bold predictions)
This seems like a low bar, but consider the fact that there were only 12 running backs who cleared the mark in 2016. David Johnson is the easy one to predict. He finished seventh in rushing last year and has every reason to repeat the feat. Carlos Hyde fell just short by 12 yards. Betting on his health is usually a losing proposition, but the new coaching staff should lean on Hyde and give him a better scheme in which to succeed. Todd Gurley should get the volume again, his 278 carries ranked fifth in the league, but his breakaway rate was 43rd (out of 53 qualified running backs) so he struggled to create big runs. Expect that to normalize given Gurley’s talent and improvements to the team.
The hardest team to figure out is the Seattle Seahawks. Thomas Rawls, the human sour patch kid, gave us plenty of bitterness last year after a rookie year that tasted so good. He sprained an ankle in the first preseason game, but should be back for the season. Meanwhile, the continually slimming-down Eddie Lacy has failed to stand out in preseason, but Lacy was one of 29 runners to surpass 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. That seems like a long time ago, but considering Lacy has never averaged under 4.0 yards per carry and has averaged 15 carries per game for his career, meeting those marks would put him in range for that third 1,000-yard season. The Seahawks like to run and Lacy is built for it, let’s see what happens.
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