- The Detroit Lions change offensive coordinators: John Morton replaces Ben Johnson, which could cause the offense to decline, but it could also lead to more passing and big plays, which could help Jared Goff’s fantasy value.
- Dak Prescott‘s 2025 Challenge: With the Dallas Cowboys facing a significantly more demanding schedule and concerns about recent injuries, Prescott's fantasy value in 2025 remains uncertain, despite his past performances and potential.
- Subscribe to PFF+: Get access to player grades, PFF Premium Stats, fantasy football rankings, all of the PFF fantasy draft research tools and more!
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
While the top few fantasy quarterbacks have been relatively consistent from one year to the next, almost every other team has a quarterback capable of finishing in the top 10 in fantasy. Most starting quarterbacks have finished top 10 sometime in the last few years, while others have a quarterback who is within their first few years in the league, so there is plenty of reason to believe they could improve.
This means the gap between QB6 and QB22 is relatively small, making any quarterback who is drafted early in that range a reach because you can add someone of similar value later.
Here are the three quarterbacks who are being overvalued the most because there is some cause for concern, even though there is a decent chance they could succeed. There is also a similar decent chance that those drafted a few rounds later could be equally successful.
The average draft position listed is from a consensus between ESPN, Sleeper and Yahoo! for where the player is picked on average in a 12-team, redraft league.
Last updated: Thursday, July 17
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (ADP: 6.09)
Nix was the 12th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. He beat out Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in training camp to be the Denver Broncos’ Week 1 starter. He was off to a slow start, throwing one touchdown pass over the first four weeks and earning a sub-50.0 PFF offensive grade in three of four games. He was QB22 over those first four weeks, but QB5 over the rest of the season.
He averaged 2.2 passing touchdowns per game over his last 13 games, which was a big part of his success from a fantasy perspective. He only achieved 300 passing yards in two games, and he needed a completion percentage of over 80% in order to reach that many passing yards. He posted three games over the second half of the year with an 80.0-plus PFF passing grade, finishing another three games in the 70.0s. This meant he also had some bad games, which is to be expected for a rookie. His 72.8 passing grade ranked seventh best among the 17 rookies with at least 500 snaps in their rookie season. His passing grade was better than fellow rookies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
It’s fair to expect Nix’s touchdowns per game to regress while his quality of play improves, leading to more passing yards per game.
Nix was greatly helped by having the highest graded offensive line in terms of pass protection. The entire line played at least 800 snaps and at least 13 games. Left tackle Garett Bolles had a great rookie season in 2017 and has generally improved as his career has progressed. Center Luke Wattenberg and right guard Quinn Meinerz took notable steps forward in 2024. Nix had an 85.0 passing grade when kept clean and a 39.8 passing grade under pressure. If Nix takes a step back in his second season, it would likely be from injuries to the offensive line.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (ADP: 7.10)
Jared Goff was traded to the Detroit Lions in 2021, and he seemed to continue his decline. However, in 2022, his career started to get a second wind, and his PFF grades began ascending, as did his fantasy production. Goff hasn’t been asked to make the big throws, but his accuracy has kept improving, allowing his receivers to be in a better position to gain yards after the catch. Goff’s dropbacks went down in 2024 because the Lions were winning so much, but his fantasy value improved with more yards per attempt and more touchdowns.
In 2024, he reached a career-high 19.8 fantasy points per game, ranking seventh in fantasy points per game. His rushing production has been minimal throughout his career. His 270.7 passing yards per game over the last two seasons are the most among all quarterbacks. His 18.0 PPR points per game, specifically from passing attempts, is the second-most among all quarterbacks.
Goff has played notably better at home compared to on the road. As 4for4's John Paulsen has pointed out, Goff’s fantasy production at home has stayed a consistent 21.4-21.5 points per game, while his value on the road has slowly but steadily increased.
The Lions have kept nearly all of their offense together, including the top eight skill players on the depth chart and part of the offensive line. Their biggest loss was at the interior of their offensive line, where Frank Ragnow retired and Kevin Zeitler was lost in free agency. Luckily, Christian Mahogany played well as a pass protector in his limited sample size. The Lions drafted Tate Ratledge in the second round, who was a better pass protector than run blocker. This will likely lead Goff to be under pressure a little more often, but it might also lead the Lions to become more pass-heavy.
The Lions had the second-highest team offensive grade last season when you account for everyone outside of the quarterback. If Goff were on an average team, he probably wouldn’t be considered among the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks, but it’s because of this supporting cast that Goff can be considered a top-12 option.
Like any quarterback, an injury to someone else on the offense could be detrimental to their fantasy value.
Goff is in a good position to be a top-12 fantasy quarterback again this season. The Ben Johnson loss adds some variability to his play, but that includes the possibility of more passing and more big plays in the offense. Anyone drafting Goff should have another quarterback that can be in fantasy starting lineups, particularly for some of Goff’s road games, or if it takes the offense a little time to re-adjust with the new offensive coordinator.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: 11.02)
In 2021, Dak Prescott dealt with a calf injury that caused him to miss a game, but he still managed 20.7 points per game. In 2022, a thumb injury on his throwing hand caused him to miss games and fantasy production. His 17.8 points per game that season were the second-lowest of his career, as was his 68.6 passing grade. In 2023, Prescott didn’t miss a game and was never on the injury report. His fantasy points per game rebounded to 20.8, fifth-best among quarterbacks. His PFF passing grade reached a career high.
Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury after eight games of the 2024 season. However, before that point, Prescott wasn’t playing nearly as well as usual. His 15.8 points per game and 67.2 passing grade were both career lows. His accuracy plummeted, leading to an increase in turnover-worthy plays. While his dropbacks per game rose, both his yards and touchdowns per game declined. His rushing production further declined.
Despite the relatively poor play last season, his 2.0 big-time throws per game over the last two seasons rank second-best among all quarterbacks.
Prescott has generally benefited from a favorable schedule in recent seasons. Fifteen of his 37 games have been against teams in the top eight in allowing fantasy points per game to quarterbacks that season. He’s averaged 21.4 fantasy points per game against those opponents. In his 22 games against the rest of the league, he’s averaged 15.1 points per game. The Cowboys' schedule appears to be much more difficult this season. The Cowboys face a top-10 defense in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks in nine of their 17 games, and there are only two games against opponents in the top 10 at allowing fantasy points to quarterbacks. While many defenses are likely to change in quality from 2024 to 2025, facing the NFC North and AFC West for eight non-conference games will be a significant challenge.
The Cowboys moved on from Mike McCarthy as head coach and elevated Brian Schottenheimer from offensive coordinator to head coach. Schottenheimer’s offenses have always ranked better in rushing yards than passing yards, outside of two seasons where the offense was nearly even.
Prescott has seen his scramble rate, designed run rate and average depth of target decrease in recent seasons, and it wouldn’t be surprising if those trends continue. His season-ending injury last year was a hamstring injury, so it’s unlikely he will be running more often after that.
Dallas’ offensive line has generally declined in recent years, which has likely played a part in Prescott’s quality of play declining. In 2021, the Cowboys had the third-highest graded run-blocking line. They were average in 2022 and 2023, and fell to 23rd in 2024. The decline and retirements of Tyron Smith and Zack Martin played a role in the overall line decline. The Cowboys drafted Tyler Booker in the first round to replace Martin, and otherwise, the line remains the same as last year. Ideally, the line will improve due to how much the Cowboys have invested in the line over the last few seasons. However, it’s more realistic that it returns to average.
While Prescott has the upside of a top-five fantasy quarterback when everything is going right, a lot is working against him, including a recent injury history to his legs, poor play last season while healthy, a young offensive line and a much more daunting schedule than recent years. Prescott remains a potential fantasy starter in superflex leagues, but in single-quarterback leagues, several young, high-upside options make more sense as a backup option than Prescott.
© 2026 PFF - all rights reserved.