NFL News & Analysis

NFL Betting 2022: 5 mispriced player props in Week 4

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) looks to pass in the third quarter of an NFL Week 2 game against the Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, Sept. 18, 2022, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The Dallas Cowboys won, 20-17. Nfl Cincinnati Bengals At Dallas Cowboys Sept 18 2518

• QB Cooper Rush‘s passing yards prop (229.5): Take the under — the Commanders have allowed 128 rushing yards per game so far at 5.4 yards per carry. There’s little chance the Cowboys put a divisional game on the arm of a backup quarterback. They are going to feed Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard all game long.

• QB Aaron Rodgers‘ interception prop (229.5): Take the over —Rodgers is playing with easily the worst receiving corps he’s dealt with in his career. Because of that, his turnover-worthy play rate has jumped significantly over his MVP campaign, and he’s already had two games with an interception.

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My prop plays went 3-2 last week, keeping us over .500 on the season. And after I touted the inefficiencies of betting overs, the only two overs I backed last week failed to hit. You’d think I’d know better. That’s why the only over I’m picking this week relates to interceptions.

Cooper Rush, Dallas Cowboys: Under 229.5 Passing Yards vs. Commanders (-113)

Rush is a backup behind an inexperienced tackle duo facing a talented pass-rushing defensive line, and he has only barely gone over this prop in one of his two starts. But that’s not what sold me on the under. What sold me on the under is that the Commanders' run defense stinks — they’ve allowed 128 yards per game so far at 5.4 yards per carry and have the seventh-worst run defense grade in the league.

They’re now facing a Cowboys rushing offense that was absolutely rolling with Jason Peters at left guard last week, going for 176 yards on the ground on 30 carries in a win over the Giants

There’s little chance the Cowboys put a divisional game on the arm of a backup quarterback. They are going to feed Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard all game long.

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Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Over 0.5 Interceptions vs. Patriots (+206)

Rodgers has been the single most risk-averse quarterback in NFL history. Betting over interception props for him throughout his career would be a fool’s errand. That being said, he playing with easily the worst receiving corps he’s dealt with in his career. Because of that, his turnover-worthy play rate has jumped significantly over his MVP campaign, and he’s already had two games with an interception.

Below you can see the only times Rodgers has had comparable turnover-worthy play rates throughout his career:

Year TWP Rate Interceptions Games
2022 2.90% 2 3
2017 3.30% 6 7
2010 3.30% 11 15
2008 2.90% 13 16

That paints a completely different picture than the guy we’ve seen throw nine total interceptions the past two seasons. With the odds so juiced to two times your money, this one is worth dabbling on.

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Garrett Wilson, New York Jets: Under 46.5 Receiving Yards (-118)

Tyler Conklin, New York Jets: Under 27.5 Receiving Yards vs. Steelers (-124)

Call me a hater, but I’m going to need to see it before I believe it with Zach Wilson. He averaged only 190 passing yards per game as a rookie and didn’t get particularly rave reviews in training camp. In one of his six preseason dropbacks, Wilson threw an ugly pick directly to a linebacker on a stick route. 

What also worries me about Wilson’s return is his well-known friendship with Braxton Berrios. The slot receiver has been an afterthought in the Jets offense with Joe Flacco at the helm, with five catches for 37 yards on 55 routes so far. With Wilson at the helm last season, however, Berrios commanded 26 targets in his final three healthy games. That could mean the middle of the field targets Wilson and Conklin were seeing go Berrios’ way on Sunday. 

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Dallas Goedert, Dallas Cowboys: Under 45.5 Receiving Yards vs. Jaguars (-121)

Goedert is certifiably “a dude,” so there's no disrespect here whatsoever. He’s just facing two dudes on the other side of the ball leaving the mismatches for Philadelphia elsewhere. Devin Lloyd and Foye Oluokun have combined to be the sixth-highest graded linebacker corps in the NFL so far. Lloyd has two picks and four pass breakups already while Oluokun has yielded all of 84 yards in coverage all season. Because of that, no tight end has gone over the 45.5-yard mark against the Jaguars yet this season. I’m betting on that not changing this weekend. 

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