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Futures bets PFF is high on entering Week 2

Week 1 has come and gone, and there was plenty to chew on.  Was the market too overzealous about the Indianapolis Colts as the favorite in the AFC South?  The same question could be asked about the Minnesota Vikings, who by the end of the offseason edged ahead of the Green Bay Packers in the race for the NFC North in bettor’s eyes.  Was the market too down on teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Football Team, or was Week 1 an aberration for both?

In this article, I want to use the results of our season simulation to look at the futures market and shed some light on some bets I have made.  For other bets that I’ve made this offseason, you can look here.  All lines are taken from the FanDuel sportsbook:

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Kansas City +550 to win the Super Bowl

I’m not sure why the Baltimore Ravens pulled even with the Kansas City Chiefs this week in terms of odds to win the Super Bowl.  While they were certainly impressive, so were the Chiefs, and they didn’t have to empty the chamber much at all, with Patrick Mahomes failing to complete a pass traveling over 20 yards in the air.  Furthermore, it looks like the Ravens have a formidable foe in their division in the Pittsburgh Steelers, something the Chiefs do not have.

Sep 13, 2020; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs with the ball against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Seattle +1400 to win the Super Bowl and +195 to win the NFC West

We were on Arizona +7 against the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, and while the play covered, it had much more to do with the paltry play of the defending NFC champs than it did the play of Kyler Murray, who averaged less than six yards per pass attempt with a 6.5-yard ADOT.  The 49ers' schedule gets really hard really quick, leaving the door open for Seattle and their ninth-easiest schedule to win the NFC West and vie for the one-seed in a flat NFC.

Green Bay +2600 to win the Super Bowl

This is a purely mathematical play, as we have the Packers with a 7% chance to win the Super Bowl, which is almost double the 3.7% percent chance you’d need to break even on this bet.  Aaron Rodgers was the highest-graded quarterback of week 1, and the rest of the division looked awful.

Tennessee +125 to win the AFC South

We like the Tennessee Titans, going off at over +160 or so, to win the division before the week, and things just got better. Winning in Denver in September when your kicker misses four kicks and you’re inefficient running the ball is a steal, but one thing that happened in that game that should give weary Titans fans and backers some cause for optimism: Ryan Tannehill produced a game-winning drive where he couldn’t rely on the play-action that made him so efficient a season ago (over 13 yards per pass attempt on such plays). That was a big question mark we had about him going in, and he answered in the affirmative.  They have a decent test this week at home in Jacksonville (where they are nine-point favorites).  2-0 is a really good possibility, and if that happens this price will be a lot higher.

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