We’ve focused a decent amount of attention on the AFC South this offseason, and for good reason. Philip Rivers joined Frank Reich and DeForest Buckner in Indianapolis, Houston made a bunch of moves that made us all double-take and Tennessee quietly had a decent offseason, keeping Ryan Tannehill together with Arthur Smith after their uber-productive second half to 2019.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have been notably left out of the discussion. According to our simulations, they have the lowest mean win total (6.2), the lowest odds to make the playoffs of any NFL team (15%) and the best projected 2021 draft position (pick 9.55, the only team with an average 2021 draft position below 10).
Doug Marrone is also the second-most-likely coach to be fired first, while Jay Gruden and Gardner Minshew will have to gel in a shortened offseason. The team lost Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye and Calais Campbell over the past 12 months, and while they made some plays by taking C.J. Henderson and K’Lavon Chaisson in the first round of the draft, the short-term outlook for the team defensively, previously their calling card, looks bleak.
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The market certainly agrees with this sentiment, as their win total of 5 (with the over priced at +150 on FanDuel Sports Book) is the lowest line in the NFL, and their odds to make the new seven-team AFC playoffs (currently +750) are the longest of any team, as well.
Despite all of this, we’re going to go OVER the aforementioned five wins, and here’s why.