Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 7 late-Sunday Staff Bets: Player props, spread bets and more

Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson (2) comes off the field in the third quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Jets QB Zach Wilson u0.5 pass TDs (+175) at Broncos: Jets passing 2.9% less than expected this season — a trend that should continue in a tough road spot.

• Denver ‘D' has allowed 1 TD pass since Week 1; Wilson has thrown a touchdown in only 1 of 3 starts.

Bet Patrick Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs (+156) at San Francisco: 16.3% PFF Greenline edge is game's greatest on bets not involving new 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey.

Here are PFF staff best bets in the late-Sunday Week 7 window:

Ben Brown: New York Jets TE Tyler Conklin — Under 1.5 receptions (+135) at Denver Broncos

• For the first time since returning from injury, C.J. Uzomah played a higher percentage of snaps than Tyler Conklin. Conklin ran a slightly higher number of routes, but these two, for all intents and purposes, are interchangeable, except blocking, where Uzomah's been considerably better this season. Blocking leads to snaps for tight ends, and if Conklin sees a small dip in a negative game script, he might not even see enough targets to go over this number. If he does, this still looks like a coin flip with the price heavily in our favor.

Arjun Menon: New York Jets QB Zach Wilson — Under 0.5 pass touchdowns (+175) at Denver Broncos

Tommy Jurgens: Seattle Seahawks +5 at Los Angeles Chargers

Seattle's offense is no longer a mirage, and a third of the way into the season it can be said confidently that OC Shane Waldron's unit is one of the best in the NFL. Expect for the Seahawks to have an offensive redemption following their pedestrian performance in Week 6, and for QB Geno Smith to dice up the Chargers’ secondary on play-action passes, on which he's currently graded as PFF’s third-best passer.

PFF Greenline top play: Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — Over 2.5 pass TDs (+156) at San Francisco 49ers

• Mahomes o2.5 pass TDs with this much juice is too tough to resist. He's 11-4 to the over in his past 15 road games, and 11-3 coming off a loss. PFF Greenline shows a 16.3% edge — our strongest bet not involving unders on new 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey in this game. With too many unknowns relative to Run CMC's impending workload in his debut by the Bay, we play it “safe” here and go with the bet Mahomes has cashed in 2 of 3 on the road this season and in 2 of his past 3 games.


PFF staff best bets are 56-42 entering Sunday in Week 7.

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