Betting News & Analysis

NFL Betting 2022: 5 mispriced player props in Week 7

Browns running back Kareem Hunt runs during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday, Sept. 22, 2022, in Cleveland. Brownssteelers 40

• Take the under on Kareem Hunt rush attempts: The Browns may be playing catchup a good deal, which doesn’t bode well for Hunt’s usage.

A.J. Dillon crushing his receiving totals so far: The Packers running back He’s already gone over this total in half of his games, and it would be more if not for the fact that he's dropped four of his 17 targets.

• Trust Andy Reid: The Chiefs head coach is no dummy and knows attacking this 49ers linebacker corps is a fool’s errand, making a play on Clyde Edwards-Helaire under 2.5 reception prop a decent bet.

Last updated: 06:00 am ET Friday


My prop column had its best week of the season in Week 6, going 4-1 with only Tom Brady’s under spoiling the day. That brings my record to 18-13 on the season, with the bets up 5.52 units.

Here are the matchups I’m targeting this week.

RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns: Under 9.5 carries (-145)

The game script for this one is likely to look like the one we saw a week ago: The Browns are dead last in run-defense grade this season and will be facing a Ravens offense that ranks first in the league in yards per carry (6.0).

While a good deal of that comes from Lamar Jackson scrambling, they’ve still feasted when he’s gotten involved in the run game, as he's averaging 8.8 yards per carry on option runs. This means the Browns may be playing catchup a good deal, and that doesn’t bode well for Hunt’s usage.

Kareem Hunt: Under 9.5 carries (-145)
$10 returns $16.90 on BetMGM

QB Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts: Under 0.5 Interceptions (+104)

There’s reason to believe Ryan has turned a bit of a corner after a horrendous start to the season. His Week 6 game against the Jaguars was his first game all season without a turnover-worthy play. Plus, interceptions take two to tango, and no secondary has less ball production than the Titans' this year. Their six combined picks (two) and forced incompletions (four) are the fewest of any secondary in the NFL.

Matt Ryan: Under 0.5 interceptions +104
$10 returns $20.40 on BetMGM 

RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay Packers: Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-111)

Dillon has been a surprisingly big factor in the Packers receiving game. He’s already gone over this total in half of his games, and it would be more if not for the fact that he's dropped four of his 17 targets.The Commanders' linebacking corps is also nothing special in coverage, with only nine stops (sixth fewest), one forced incompletion (fourth fewest) and no picks this season.

A.J. Dillon: Over 10.5 receiving yards -111
$10 returns $19.01 on BetMGM

QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 2.5 Touchdowns (+148)

Any time you can get this much juice for Mahomes, you pull the trigger, especially when the banged-up 49ers defense looked as poor as it did a week ago. While they were the most dominant defense against the pass the first five weeks, injuries to Emmanuel Moseley, Talanoa Hufanga and Nick Bosa drastically altered the look of a 49ers defense that allowed Marcus Mariota to go 13-of-14 passes for 129 yards and two scores last week.

Patrick Mahomes: Over 2.5 touchdowns +148
$10 returns $24.80 on BetMGM

RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: Under 2.5 Receptions (-145)

While Mahomes seems like a good bet to sling it around, the chances of those going to Edwards-Helaire look slim. Andy Reid is no dummy and knows attacking this 49ers linebacker corps is a fool’s errand. The 49ers' linebacking corps has combined for 28 defensive stops this season, six more than any other group in the NFL.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Under 2.5 receptions -145
$10 returns $16.90 on BetMGM

 

A $20 bet on a five-leg parlay with these picks would net
$529.12 at BetMGM

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