NFL Week 7 Betting Trends: Injured 49ers defense Mahomes' next road victim?

Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa (97) celebrates with safety Talanoa Hufanga (29) after making a sack against the Los Angeles Rams during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

• Patrick Mahomes is 11-4 to the Over in his past 15 road games: And with the Niners' defense banged-up, there's no fault in citing this trend as a reason to bet the Chiefs' team total Over.  

• With Daniel Jones 14-6 ATS on the road in his career, and Big Blue 2-0 SU away from Met-Life this season, these coinciding trends are compelling reasons to bet the upstart Giants at Jags in Week 7. 

• Since 2020, Bill Belichick 5-1 ATS as Home Favorite of 7+ points: A larger sample size would be preferable, but Pats consistently take care of business at home vs. lesser opponents, like Chicago.  

Last updated: Tues. Oct. 18, 4:40 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 5 mins


Here's a sampling of obscure, and actionable trends in Week 7 marquee games:

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5)

º The Cardinals have lost 7 Straight at Home

º Arizona HC Kliff Kingsbury is 10-17 ATS at Home

• The Cardinals have consistently performed below expectations at home, the epitome of declining Home Field Advantage (HFA) in recent years. Conversely, Arizona has excelled on the road in this same timeframe (19-7-2 ATS as the road team since Kingsbury’s arrival) and there may be credence to the belief that oddsmakers struggle to set accurate lines for the Cardinals.

º Since 2018, when NFC Teams meet on TNF, the Home Team is 10-17 ATS

• Such matchups between NFC opponents have been skewed to the road team in recent years, and this phenomenon continued last week as the Bears failed to defend Soldier Field versus the Commanders. This trend, however, is likely to revert back to the mean over time. Similar games between AFC opponents have been slightly skewed to home teams (29-34-1 ATS on Thursday Night since 2018). 

º Since 2018, the Saints are 24-11 ATS and 27-8 SU on the Road

º Since 2018, the Saints are 9-2 ATS and 8-3 SU as a Road Underdog

• The Saints have been one of the NFL's best on the road over the past few seasons. However, a majority of this success was a function of the Drew Brees / Sean Payton era. Be hesitant in backing the Saints as a short dog solely because of their recent success on the road. 

º Saints potential starting QB1 Taysom Hill is 7-2 to the Under and 7-2 ATS as a starter, including 5-1 on the road

• Pretty ample evidence here to back the Saints if they're ultimately led by Hill Thursday night.

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5)

º Since 2012, the Titans are 3-7 ATS and 2-8 SU when hosting the Colts

• For the past decade, the Colts have had Tennessee’s number in Nashville. However, these results should have no bearing on this game’s outcome. Of the Titans’ eight SU losses over that span, six were at the hands of QB Andrew Luck, and only twice have they lost as a favorite.

º Since 2018, QB Matt Ryan is 6-4 SU as a Divisional Road Underdog 

• Ryan’s recent success in this spot is a result of his Atlanta Falcons tenure, and his success versus the NFC South cannot be projected onto this game.

º The Colts have covered 6 straight games as a road underdog. 

º Including the Postseason, Colts HC Frank Reich is 4-1 ATS as a Divisional Road Underdog, with all five games going Under 

• Reich has consistently rallied his team in spots like this, but one should be hesitant to assume similar success versus the Titans Sunday. The sample size of games simply is not large enough, however there is no fault in those citing this as additional reasoning to back the Colts, or an Under. 

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars (-3, 42.5)

º Since 2018, Jacksonville is 2-7 SU and ATS as a Home Favorite

º Since 2018, Jacksonville is 0-9 SU and ATS versus the NFC at Home

• The Jaguars have struggled under the weight of expectations — and have been an extremely profitable fade in spots like this. There should be reluctance in assuming similarly poor results in the first year of HC Doug Pederson’s tenure, but such failures in unfamiliar circumstances may be synonymous with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

º Giants QB Daniel Jones is 14-6 ATS on the Road

• Jones' success on the road is well known, and New York is 2-0 SU away from MetLife Stadium so far this season. These coinciding trends may be reason enough to back the upstart Giants.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers (+3, 48.5)

º San Francisco has covered 6 straight home games

º Jimmy Garoppolo is 3-0 SU and ATS as a Home Underdog

• Jimmy Garoppolo’s success is this spot is trivially interesting, however the sample size is far too small for it to be actionable. Additionally, the 49ers' recent success at home is notable, but regression should be expected. 

º Patrick Mahomes is 11-3 SU following a loss

• Patrick Mahomes’ record of 11-3 following a loss is no deviation from his all-time record of 54-15. These winning percentages are nearly identical, and it is no more likely that he beat San Francisco on Sunday than it is that he would win any other game.

º Patrick Mahomes is 11-4 to the Over in his past 15 regular-season games on the Road

• Perhaps oddsmakers have incorrectly assumed that Kansas City’s offense is not as sharp on the road. The 49ers' defense is banged up, and there is no fault in citing this trend as a reason to back a Chiefs team Over.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Miami Dolphins (-7, 44.5)

º Since 2021, Home Favorites vs Non-Division Opponents are 1-8 ATS and 3-6 SU on SNF

For those who are skittish of the Dolphins, this has been an extremely profitable spot to bet on the underdog. This trend is likely more noise than it is actionable information, but there is certainly a chance Miami is getting too much credit at home on Sunday Night.

º Tua Tagovailoa is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a Home Favorite

º Tua Tagovailoa is 10-3 ATS at Home 

• In his early career, Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has excelled at home. It is doubtful this success will project onto the rest of his career, but it has been a losing proposition to fade the Dolphins young QB in this spot. 

Chicago Bears @ New England Patriots (-8, 39.5)

º Home Teams on MNF are 25-14-1 ATS vs an Out-of-Conference Opponent since 2012

• The inherent unfamiliarity between such teams has been skewed as an advantage to the home team on Monday nights. Notwithstanding, this trend is absent any other information regarding the games, and should not be a blind indicator to back the Patriots. 

º Since 2020, Bill Belichick is 5-1 ATS as a Home Favorite of 7 or more points

• Such success is surprising considering 2020 coincided with QB Tom Brady’s departure from New England. It would be preferable that this sample size were larger, but New England has consistently taken care of their business at home versus lesser opponents. 

 

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