NFL Week 4 Same-Game Parlays: Bet on Justin Herbert, Josh Palmer and the Chargers offense

2RY2FP7 Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Bruce Kluckhohn)

• Figuring it out: While it has been a slow start to the season for the Jags’ passing offense, there is still reason for optimism. Drops are notoriously noisy, and no team has dropped more passes than the Jaguars.

• WR Christian Kirk in a good spot: The Falcons play mostly zone coverage, where Kirk has earned a target on 28% of his snaps since coming to Jacksonville compared to 17% for WR Calvin Ridley and 20% for TE Evan Engram. With WR Zay Jones out, this should be a condensed target share with Kirk as the lead target in a terrific matchup.

• Get $200 in bonus bets: New FanDuel customers who bet $5 or more receive $200 in bonus bets. Join FanDuel today!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

Story: WR Tank Dell and QB C.J. Stroud dominate the Pittsburgh Steelers’ man coverage

Over the last two years, Pittsburgh has played man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Enter rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, who has shredded man coverage this season.

In his limited sample, Dell has been the best receiver in football against man coverage. He is the best separator and leads the NFL in yards per route run. While that will likely not hold, this line is badly mispriced if the above graph is even directionally right.

Against man coverage — where targets are more predictable — Dell has led the Texans in target share by a healthy margin. And given that he’ll be running his routes against CB Levi Wallace, who ranks 86th at his position in PFF grade — Dell should be targeted often and with success.

FanDuel build: +2496

Story: WR Josh Palmer excels in No. 2 role in a Los Angeles Chargers win

The injury to Mike Williams leaves a massive hole in the Chargers offense. This should lead to plenty of opportunities for Josh Palmer, who has been among the game’s best separators this year, having generated the fourth-most separation of any wide receiver.

But perhaps more important is that Palmer, with his 13.1-yard average target depth, is set to take over Williams' role as the deep threat. Against this porous Raiders secondary, he will have numerous chances at some huge plays that can elevate him to a ceiling game.

The books are pricing in Palmer’s prop at his median production from last year (44.5), but he is entering a completely different role as the No. 2 target and downfield threat in a more prolific offense against a bad pass defense.

Build: +3700 on DraftKings

Story: Jacksonville Jaguars lean on WR Christian Kirk en route to a big passing day

While it has been a slow start to the season for the Jags’ passing offense, there is still reason for optimism. Drops are notoriously noisy, and no team has dropped more passes than the Jaguars.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is still second in the NFL in PFF grade and big-time throws, the kind of throws that often lead to ceiling games.

And this might just be the right spot for the Jags in their home away from home, especially for Christian Kirk, who is set to face off against Dee Alford in the slot. Alford has allowed the eighth-most separation so far, and teams targeting him have produced the equivalent EPA of a traditional MVP season.

Better yet, the Falcons play mostly zone coverage, where Kirk has earned a target on 28% of his snaps since coming to Jacksonville compared to 17% for WR Calvin Ridley and 20% for TE Evan Engram. With fellow receiver Zay Jones out, this should be a condensed target share with Kirk as the lead target in a terrific matchup.

PointsBet build: +4000
Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr