Week 18 NFL odds are live, and we’ve tried to identify early spreads to bet now before the lines move. The final regular-season slate includes games with little meaning for either team, so it was more of a challenge to find betting value.
Last week, our spread bets flopped while the teaser legs came through. Our “lock of the week” performed as well as Antonio Brown did Sunday (yes, it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who didn’t cover 13 points). We went 3-0 on teasers and 0-3 on sides.
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Make sure you check PFF’s betting dashboards when our weekly model predictions go live on Tuesdays, and of course, monitor the Best Bets and Player Props tools to find the very best betting value as college football bowl season and the NFL regular season wind down. Both the NFL and NCAA betting dashboards are plus-30 or more units on the season against early lines, after another positive week for the NFL.
Week 18 is here, so let’s dive in.
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Week 18 NFL Football Betting Odds (spread, total)
Find all current spreads and PFF’s model predictions on our NFL scores page
Saturday 4:30 P.M. and 8:15 P.M. ET
Sunday 1 P.M. ET
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (+11, 46.5)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 44)
Washington Football Team @ New York Giants (+5.5, 38.5)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5, 44)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5, 42)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (-3, 44)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans (+10.5, 42.5)
Sunday 4 P.M. ET
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+4.5, 40.5)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+5.5, 39.5)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5, 42.5)
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5, 44.5)
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (-6.5, 48)
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-17, 45.5)
Sunday Night Football
Week 18 Best Early NFL Bets
- Philadelphia Eagles (+8.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys
- Las Vegas Raiders (+8.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Arizona Cardinals (-0.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Wong teasers have not done particularly well as of late, but we go back to the well. As a reminder, in order for a standard -110 teaser to have value, you need both sides to be expected to hit at a rate of 72.4% (the square root of the break-even 52.4% you need for the whole bet). If you’re getting -120, which is standard, then it’s 73.9%. Without handicapping games, you’re basically asking the six points to get you 25%. That’s hard to do if you’re not crossing 3 or 7 and/or the total is extremely low (i.e., points are worth more).
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (+4.5)
Point (George Chahrouri): Is there any other way to finish a season than to bet on the Falcons? Atlanta somehow had a chance to win a game they ended up losing by 14 this week in Buffalo. The Falcons will now face the Taysom Hill-led Saints to close out the regular season. The Saints are playing to make the playoffs, but Atlanta is certainly not going to let them away with an easy win to get a better draft pick.
Hill has not been so great as a passer this year, ranking just 26th among 32 starting quarterbacks in PFF's spread power ranking. This is simple: The better quarterback is at home and getting points. Matt Ryan hasn’t been the better quarterback all that often, but he sure is here. The Saints struggled to put away Sam Darnold and the Panthers at home this past week, so while they might squeak out the win here, it shouldn’t be by more than four points.
Counterpoint (Eric Eager): So, while I like this pick, we are already basically on the Falcons moneyline in this one (unless you bet with us really early at Falcons over seven wins, in which case you’re assured at least a push). If you have some Falcons over 7.5 wins, this is an Atlanta win you absolutely need. And since it’s an underdog, you might view it as throwing good money at bad.
Additionally, after spending most of the season without their No. 1 wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, the Falcons will likely be without Kyle Pitts, the first rookie tight end since Mike Ditka to rack up more than 1,000 yards in a season. Matt Ryan and Arthur Smith are still good enough to win this game, but the Saints' defense — which ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed coming in — could muck this contest up to a degree to which it's frustrating for Falcons backers.
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San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Point (EE): While we like to bet plays here at good numbers, it doesn’t look like you’re going to get to +6 anytime soon here. The big uncertainty is who is starting at quarterback for the 49ers, as Trey Lance’s 66.8 overall grade (pending review) on 24 dropbacks against a team full of replacement-level players in the Houston Texans was probably not enough to unseat a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo. However, it’s probably not reasonable to assume Jimmy G will be healthy.
Thus, it’s a healthy Lance versus a banged-up Garoppolo here in a game against a team the 49ers have handled for the past two-and-a-half years, winning five straight games and four of five against the number. Matthew Stafford has thrown 11 interceptions in the past eight games, including six in the past three. A continuation of said dynamic might make it so it doesn't matter who plays quarterback for the 49ers, presenting some value if you want to back the Niners.
Counterpoint (GC): The worry here is the 49ers' starting quarterback, regardless of who it is. It's rumored that Jimmy Garoppolo will try to gut it out despite having his hand snapped, crackled and popped by virtue of John Lynch’s powerful Christmas Eve prayers.
Trey Lance looked shaky at times against the lowly Texans in Week 17 and has made a turnover-worthy play on 4.3% of his dropbacks this season, which is well above the league average. The 49ers smacked the Rams in Week 10 by a 21-point margin (31-10) but might not have the quarterback play to keep this one close.