• The Mike White hype train officially off and running: With the Jets moving from +4.5 on the lookahead line to a current +3 at Minnesota.
• PFF Greenline likes Minnesota as short home favorites — and now is the perfect spot to lock into with this spread expected to stay at -3 until kickoff.
• Aaron Rodgers' Packers -3 at Bears is one of best early bets available in Week 13: It's finally a spot for Rogers to show out — and he's not interested in relinquishing the opportunity.
Last updated: Nov. 29, 1:00 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 7 mins
Market Movers NFL Week 13
The goal every week in this space is highlighting spreads that have already moved, ones that still have value and other big line changes that could occur based on injuries or various market manipulation-type techniques.
Let’s start by checking where the spreads in Week 13 have been at critical points in the past.
|Away Team||Home Team||Preseason Spread||Lookahead Spread||Week-of-Open Spread||Current Spread|
Another valuable datapoint often is the injury situation for all teams. One of the best ways to find value early in the week is digesting injury information quicker and more accurately than the rest of the market. This can be done by understanding who is returning and helpful to the team and also who is now hurt from the previous game but hasn’t been added to the official game status for a team until later in the week.
To start, let's take a look at the prior week injury information for every team and what that means for their Week 13 outlook.
There are also a few situations from Sunday and Monday that are relevant from an injury perspective and could impact the spread of games for the upcoming week. Here's a roundup of all the key news with highlights and thoughts on how long the potential issue is for the player in question.
And always check out Mario Pilato's weekly injury recap and analysis.
Let’s dive into the games whose lines have already moved and others that could have the most spread movement as we head closer to kickoff.
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• The Mike White hype train is officially off and running, with the Jets moving from +4.5 on the lookahead line to a current +3 at market leading books: Neither team left Week 12 with significant injury news, as both remain among the league’s healthiest teams heading into this matchup.
• Minnesota still being lumped in with the New York Giants as teams whose records outweigh their on-field product: Bookmakers continue to project some sort of regression for the Vikings, who were the most recent benefactors of the NFL still not knowing what exactly constitutes a catch. Advanced stats also dinged Minnesota's Thanksgiving win because of a kickoff-return touchdown, which was needed as the Vikings let Mac Jones look like a bonafide quarterback on Thanksgiving.
• For all of their warts, the Vikings still have this matchup's best quarterback and offense, including perhaps the NFL's most valuable non-QB: As short home favorites, PFF Greenline likes Minnesota's side. This looks like the perfect spot to lock into with this spread now expected to stay at -3 until kickoff.
• QB question marks at the forefront of everyone’s mind in division rivalry: Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears throughout his career, and this points to the perfect spot for him to finally show out in 2022. The question is whether he'll have the opportunity as the Packers must answer this offseason's pressing Jordan Love question. The problem is Aaron Rodgers seems uninterested in relinquishing the starting role easily, potentially turning this into a front-office nightmare if someone in the Packers organization tries to bench him.
• Justin Fields could be set to return, but this spread has trickled out slightly in the Packers' direction after a lookahead line at +2.5: Outside of Fields' questionable status, Chicago is dealing with injuries at an already-thin WR unit, where Darnell Mooney is out indefinitely and Chase Claypool also left Week 12 a little banged up.
• Fields would need to be absolutely magical to overcome this, which is why the Packers -3 is one of the best early-week bets available: It’s not the best of the number, but buying into the Aaron Rodgers narrative for one more week should allow us to recoup some of the losses he’s been responsible for this season.
• Game of the Year Rematch: The Chiefs look to avenge their playoff exit against a surging Bengals squad. The spread moved off +3 lookahead down to +2.5, and could go further in the Bengals' direction once Ja’Marr Chase is officially active.
• Kansas City's banged-up secondary could struggle to slow Bengals offense passing at the highest rate in the NFL: Even so, PFF Greenline likes the Chiefs' side of the spread. And waiting for an even better number could pay off as we head closer to kickoff.
• The real betting value could end up on the total: As neither defense should have much success getting off the field Sunday. It opened at 51.5 before pushing up to 52.5, but it could see the biggest boost from late-week injury news, making now the perfect time to lock the Over.
Ben's ‘Market Movers' picks went 3-0 in Week 12. His overall betting record (college/NFL) this season is 77-95 (-3.37).