Sunday Night Football Best Bets: Player props, spread bets and more

Tampa, Florida, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) and wide receiver Allen Lazard (13) congratulate each other after they scored a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Eagles QB Jalen Hurts u9.5 rush attempts: He went over in Indy for the first time since Week 5; potentially disadvantageous game script against slow, run-heavy Packers.

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FanDuel SGP (+1978): Allen Lazard 100 receiving yards + Lazard TD + Aaron Rodgers 250+ pass yards: Lazard is Rodgers' favorite target by a mile in man coverage, which Eagles play at third-highest rate.

Last updated: Nov. 27, 4:30 p.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins


Here are PFF staff best bets in Green Bay PackersPhiladelphia Eagles on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 12:

Ben BrownEAGLES RB MILES SANDERS — UNDER 14.5 CARRIES (-115)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to -125

After going over his rushing-yards prop in his first 6 games: Sanders has gone under in 3 of his past 4 games. The reason boils down to game script, as Sanders will be featured in positive situations but is heavily mixed in with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott when playing from behind.

If the Packers first-half spread gets home: Sanders has no realistic shot of clearing this number. It’s still inflated offering based on his early season usage as this might be the last time we see him at 14.5 unless the Eagles are 2+ TD favorites.

Judah Fortgang: Allen Lazard 125+yards + Lazard anytime TD + Aaron Rodgers 250+ pass yards (+1978)

• Philadelphia plays man coverage at a top-10 rate, and as we studied at PFF this summer, in man coverage, predicting the targeted player is far more predictable than in zone.

Allen Lazard has been Rodgers' favorite target by a mile in man coverage, earning a target on 27% of snaps. Lazard is 9th in the NFL with his 85 PFF Grade against man.

• To further bolster his case, Lazard is 5th in the NFL in Deep Targets, and all it takes is one long reception on the inevitable deep targets he will receive to get us most of the way to our props.

PFF Greenline top play: Jalen Hurts — Under 9.5 carries (+103)

• 13.4% Greenline edge currently is the biggest Sunday night. Hurts reached double-digit carries against the Colts for the first time since Week 5. Perhaps the absence of De'Vondre Campbell in the middle of the Packers' defense should make us wary, but with the recent holes in Green Bay's secondary, and potential for Philly to play from behind, this is a solid bet.

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