• Bet Packers +3.5 1H at Eagles: Green Bay is 3rd in early-down success rate; Philly is seventh-worst in the same metric on defense.
• Bullish case for underdog comes from recent blueprint to playing Eagles: control the ball early and force them into a negative game script. No one plays at a slower pace than the Packers.
• Bet Eagles RB Miles Sanders u14.5 carries: If Eagles aren't in advantageous script, Sanders won't get here sharing with Ken Gainwell and Boston Scott.
Last updated: Nov. 27, 3:30 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
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Styles make fights in football and can often be the reason why a projected lopsided affair doesn’t turn out that way. The bullish case for the underdog is obvious, as the path to beating Philadelphia’s been laid out before the Packers: control the ball offensively and gain an early upper hand. If that happens, the Eagles have continued to struggle in negative game script.
• Green Bay plays at a bottom-five slowest offensive rate in the NFL and averages only 65 offensive snaps a game: Philadelphia’s one poor facet of play is the run defense, which they attempted to correct with the additions of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh.
• The Packers rank third in early-down success rate; the Eagles have been the seventh-worst defensive unit in this same metric: An early run out from the Packers offense could once again set the Eagles back far enough that they aren’t able to recover. With the spread now moving off of +7, the first half number is the better approach sitting right above the key number 3.
• It’s hard to envision the Packers having success if forced to play at a frantic pace to catch up: But their first-half spread offers more than enough value if expecting them to be successful in this matchup: It also offers the opportunity to reevaluate at halftime and potentially lock in some more action on the Packers, with the Eagles' well-documented struggles when playing from behind this season.
Bet: Packers +3.5 1H (-110)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -120
Bet: Eagles RB Miles Sanders — Under 14.5 Carries (-115)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -125
• After going over his rushing-yards prop in his first 6 games: Sanders has gone under in 3 of his past 4 games. The reason boils down to game script, as Sanders will be featured in positive situations but is heavily mixed in with Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott when playing from behind.
• If the Packers first half spread gets home: Sanders has no realistic shot of clearing this number. It’s still inflated offering based on his early season usage as this might be the last time we see him at 14.5 unless the Eagles are 2+ TD favorites.
DERIVATIVE BETS & SAME-GAME PARLAY
• Whether looking at full-game or first-half spread for the Packers: The narrative for cashing fits in both scenarios. It also leads to a dramatic reduction in Miles Sanders rushing opportunities, most impacted when the Eagles are leading compared to their trailing tendencies.
• In addition to the Packers' rushing success, sustained methodical drives would mean an uptick to Rodgers passing attempts: Few explosive plays are likely, but low aDot throws to running backs and tight ends could be the focal point for the offense, especially if playing with a lead.
• PFF’s prop tool likes Rodgers to go over his pass attempt and completion props: But the plus price on his attempts makes for the better option in our same-game parlay. If Green Bay controls the time of possession, we should see this +460 parlay cash easily with the Packers very-much live on the moneyline as well.
Caesars SGP build (+460)
• Packers +6.5
• Miles Sanders U14.5 Rush Attempts
• Aaron Rodgers O34.5 Pass Attempts