Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 1 Betting: Six best PrizePicks plays

2M9MN06 Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) warms up before an NFL football game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

• Lamar Jackson OVER 216.5 passing yards: Jackson is expected to throw more under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

• Tony Pollard OVER 0.5 total TDs: Pollard is the new bell cow in Dallas and should find the end zone, whether that be on the ground or through the air.

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NFL WEEK 1 IS HERE. If you have never played PrizePicks, you are in for a treat. On PrizePicks, you choose two or more players from the board and whether they go over or under their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.

For each week of the 2023 NFL season, we'll be making a list of our six favorite picks for each week. You can take these picks and make a two-, three-, four-, five- or six-leg entry. Let’s get started.

Dak Prescott OVER 0.5 passing yards

It's a free square. There is no need to break it down. Now, let’s dive into some options to pair with it.

Lamar Jackson OVER 216.5 Passing Yards

Lamar Jackson career season-opener stats (four games)
  • 90.4 passing grade
  • 1,047 passing yards (261 yards per game)
  • 12 TDs
  • 1 INT

Lamar Jackson is expected to pass the ball more often under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. That notion combined with the additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and rookie Zay Flowers should have Jackson easily exceeding his passing over.

Tony Pollard OVER 0.5 Total TDs

Tony Pollard RB1 season is here. Pollard has been listed as a potential league winner by PFF lead fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke, and for good reason. Ezekiel Elliott‘s offseason departure leaves 75% of goal-line carries and 11 touchdowns inside the 10 up for grabs.

D.J. Moore OVER 3.5 receptions

There is little analysis and data for this pick with Moore making his debut in Chicago. He does have a tough matchup against the Packers' secondary, but the Bears' offense should get him involved early and often. The preseason showed that quarterback Justin Fields will be targeting his new weapon a good bit, with Moore seeing three targets on just nine receiving snaps.

Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing TDs

Josh Allen is tied for the league lead in games with two-plus touchdown passes since 2020 (37). Allen has addressed that he cannot play the same physical style of football forever, and that may start this year in the form of rushing touchdown regression but finding the end zone more through the air — especially with his new and upgraded receiving weapons.

Drake London OVER 51.5 receiving yards

Across the four games Desmond Ridder played as the starting quarterback in 2022, Drake London averaged 83 receiving yards. London has also been listed as a breakout fantasy player by PFF's Nathan Jahnke, and there is no better time to jump-start that campaign with an over 51.5-yard performance in Week 1.

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