Monday Night Football: Eagles-Buccaneers betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

2RHYCRK Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) warms up before a preseason NFL football game against the New York Jets, Saturday, Aug. 19, 2023, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

• Inflated numbers: This is a sell-high spot for a Bucs passing offense that just passed for over 300 yards against the Bears.

• Step up in competition: The Buccaneers have played better than expected and find themselves 2-0 after beating the Vikings and Bears, but the defense they'll be going against is a big jump in competition. Most notably, that jump comes by way of the pass rush.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

After an action-packed Sunday slate of NFL games, we have two Monday Night Football games to wrap up Week 3. Our best bet for the Monday games will be on the first of the night.

The Philadelphia Eagles travel to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where there is potential for heavy rain pregame. That adverse weather may run into the early part of the game, but it is expected to clear up early, so there should be limited weather impact.

QB Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Under 226.5 Passing Yards (-113 AT FanDuel)

Cornerback James Bradberry returns to the Eagles secondary having missed last week’s high-scoring affair with the Minnesota Vikings — a game in which Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison combined for 230 yards of offense.

The Eagles have given up the third-most passing yards through two weeks but have also faced the second-most passing attempts — because they field the best run defense in the league, teams tend to pass against them at a high rate.

So, while they may have given up a relatively high number of passing yards, they actually rank 22nd in coverage yards per snap and 14th in success rate allowed — and even those numbers are significantly impacted by a week without their starting corner against an offense that includes Justin Jefferson.

Team Metrics
Eagles Buccaneers
Power Rank: Overall 3rd 14th
Power Rank: Defense 7th 19th
Power Rank: Offense 5th 25th
SOS Played 22nd 31st
Avg Offensive Snaps 73.5 71.0
% Run Plays 48.3% 45.3%
% Pass Plays 51.7% 54.7%
EPA Per Run 0.01 -0.13
EPA Per Pass -0.09 0.18

Bradberry's return is a big deal for this Eagles defense, and they are likely not as easy to pass against as their raw totals suggest. Their defense has plenty of big play ability, too, as the team has forced incompletions at the second-highest rate in the league through two weeks.

The Buccaneers have played better than expected and find themselves 2-0 after beating the Vikings and Bears, but the defense they'll be going against is a big jump in competition. Most notably, that jump comes by way of the pass rush.

Through two weeks, the Vikings and Bears fielded the 29th- and 32nd-ranked pass rush win rate, with the Eagles way up in ninth. We should see that translate to less passing success against a secondary expected to be better than their raw numbers.

This is a sell-high spot for a Bucs passing offense that just passed for over 300 yards against the Bears, but the Bears secondary is allowing the second-most yards per coverage snap and the second-highest explosive play rate.

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