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Week 14 fantasy football waiver wire pickups, trade candidates and start or sit roster decisions based on PFF routes run

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (85) celebrates a touchdown catch in the second quarter during a Week 13 NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, Dec. 5, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. Los Angeles Chargers At Cincinnati Bengals Dec 5

Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and chasing target volume has always been a winning strategy — especially in PPR leagues. PFF premium stats offers proprietary data that goes well beyond the box score, including routes run for every player on the depth chart.

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Targeting players who are running a high percentage of routes is a good strategy for identifying breakout performances in the weekly fantasy football rankings, DFS targets and the best waiver wire pickups. This weekly report will look at the previous week's rate of routes run per dropback compared to larger samples to find sleeper running backs, wide receivers and tight ends who are garnering more or less opportunities in the passing game heading into Week 14.

Last week's article highlighted the likes of David Montgomery, Elijah Moore, Josh Jacobs, Van Jefferson Jr., Javonte Williams, Logan Thomas and Elijah Mitchell as players whose receiving usage was likely to transform into fantasy production sooner than later.

This data does not include the Monday Night Football game between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Rate of routes run per dropback | Week 13
Player Routes run % of routes run per dropback
Mike Williams 43 100%
Cooper Kupp 41 100%
Michael Pittman Jr. 25 100%
Diontae Johnson 34 100%
Ja'Marr Chase 50 100%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 45 98%
Tyreek Hill 34 97%
Mike Evans 50 96%
Tee Higgins 48 96%
Michael Gallup 45 96%
Justin Jefferson 45 96%
CeeDee Lamb 45 96%
Hunter Renfrow 43 96%
D.K. Metcalf 43 96%
Marvin Jones Jr. 34 94%
Chris Godwin 49 94%
Darnell Mooney 47 94%
Courtland Sutton 46 94%
Trent Sherfield 30 94%
Brandon Aiyuk 30 94%
K.J. Osborn 44 94%
Tyler Lockett 42 93%
Marquise Brown 45 92%
Laquon Treadwell 33 92%
Breshad Perriman 47 90%
Van Jefferson 37 90%

Amon-Ra St. Brown caught the game-winning touchdown from Jared Goff to get the Detroit Lions their first win of the season. The slot receiver hauled in 10 of his team-leading 12 targets, which bodes well for him next week. Denver Broncos slot cornerback Kyle Fuller is PFF’s second-worst graded CB (40.6) through 12 weeks.

Look for ASB to be Goff’s favorite target after he ran a route on a team-high 98% of his dropbacks in Week 13. His target share has risen by 11% from Weeks 10-13 — the highest increase of any WR from the previous four-week period.

With Adam Thielen sidelined due to an ankle injury, K.J. Osborn ran a route on 96% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks and caught four of seven targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. Add the second-year wideout off the waiver wire as a bye week fill-in on a short week — the Vikings play the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night.

Trent Sherfield isn’t dead yet. Jauan Jennings was the favorite to see more work in the 49ers passing game with Deebo Samuel sidelined heading into Week 13, but Jennings played behind Sherfield and was out-targeted four to one.

Laquon Treadwell owns a 21% target share over the last two weeks. The former first-round pick has emerged as the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver and could be useful in extremely deep formats in a plus-matchup versus the Tennessee Titans. The Titans rank last in fantasy points per game allowed to WRs this season. Treadwell is just $3,400 on DraftKings for Week 14.

Breshad Perriman has taken over the No. 3 wide receiver role in Tampa Bay. The journeymen wideout ran a route on a whopping 90% of Tom Brady’s dropbacks and saw three targets, relegating both Tyler Johnson and Scotty Miller to bench duties.

Add Perriman as a stash in case anything should happen to Chris Godwin or Mike Evans.

Take any all wide passing numbers from Monday night with a grain of salt. Under extremely windy conditions, rookie quarterback Mac Jones attempted just three passes. Nelson Agholor led the team with three routes run.

Rate of routes run per dropback | Last four weeks

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