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NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football: Buy Low & Sell High Targets Based on High-Value Opportunities

November 28, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) runs against San Francisco 49ers outside linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (51) during the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by routes run and high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from last week saw healthy doses of end-zone targets, air yards, routes run, deep targets and goal-line carries.

Tee Higgins and Brandin Cooks were overdue to score based on their previous opportunity volume inside the red zone. Both hit paydirt in Week 13. Trust the process.

To find Week 13’s version of Higgins or Cooks in the fantasy football rankings or as a waiver wire pickup, fantasy managers can leverage PFF’s fantasy stats tool to identify the players who saw the most high-value opportunities but failed to cash in.


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These guys are the perfect “buy-low” candidates and will soon exceed fantasy expectations for weekly fantasy matchups, large-field DFS contests or player props.

END-ZONE TARGETS

Most end-zone targets | Week 12
Player End-zone targets End-zone touchdowns
Justin Jefferson 3 0
Jared Cook 2 1
Adam Thielen 2 2
Kenny Golladay 2 0
Mark Andrews 2 1
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 2 0

Justin Jefferson is just one of those wide receivers you need to play in DFS every single week. He owns a 27% target share and 48% air yards share in his last four games and is coming off three end-zone looks from quarterback Kirk Cousins in Week 12. Adam Thielen will eventually have games where he doesn't find the end zone, and those the scores will eventually find their way onto Jefferson’s stat sheet. Jefferson has a supremely favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions in Week 13.

Alexander Mattison will gobble up the majority of DFS rostership at $7,600 with Dalvin Cook out, making Jefferson the priority leverage play in GPPs at $8,200 on DraftKings.  

Mark my words: Kenny Golladay finds the end zone in Week 13. The Giants big-bodied WR saw his target share increase sans Jason Garrett but went just 3-50-0 on the day. Golladay failed to haul in either of his end-zone targets, bringing yearlong total of targets inside the 5-yard line to seven with zero touchdowns. Only Jalen Reagor has more such targets with no scores to show. 

Look for Golladay to break his end-zone drought versus the Miami Dolphins, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs over the last four weeks. The guy is dirt cheap on DraftKings at just $5,000. 

WR Jauan Jennings looks to be the next man up with Deebo Samuel slated to miss time. The second-year wide receiver caught two of three targets for 23 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. He also caught a second end-zone look but was ruled out of bounds. Two of his three targets came inside the 5-yard line. 

Houston wide receiver Nico Collins tied Brandin Cooks with a team-leading five targets, two of which were inside the 5-yard line. The rookie now has three targets of that variety in his last two games, so I like his chances of hitting paydirt versus the Indianapolis Colts, who rank last in receiving touchdowns to WRs this season. You could do worse than $3.1K for Collins on DraftKings — his target share increased by 10% from Week 11.

Other wide receivers/tight ends who should experience positive touchdown regression based on their target volume inside the 5-yard line include Mike Williams, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Tyler Lockett, Darren Waller, Courtland Sutton, Allen Robinson and Chris Godwin

DEEP TARGETS AND AIR YARDS

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