• A healthy Anthony Richardson could provide a big boost to the Indianapolis Colts offense: Richardson’s encouraging production and dual-threat ability stood out in limited action as a rookie.
• A very promising season from an undrafted rookie linebacker: Ivan Pace played incredibly well for the Minnesota Vikings as a rookie, despite only starting a handful of games, but could see a larger role in 2024.
• Year 3 is where a former first-overall pick should start to shine: Jacksonville’s Travon Walker started to show signs of improvement in Year 2 and looks set to continue that trend heading into 2024.
Estimated reading time: 16 minutes
For all but four teams, attention has now turned to the 2024 NFL season. And while that means an offseason of team building, we can also look ahead to players already on the roster who have a chance to break out next year.
Here is a potential breakout candidate for each team in the NFL for 2024.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
Arizona Cardinals: WR Michael Wilson
Arizona’s Day 2 wide receiver from the 2023 class averaged about 32 routes per game across 13 appearances this season, delivering three touchdowns, which was tied for second-most on the team, and 565 yards — the third-most. Wilson should expect to play a larger role in 2024 with Marquise Brown scheduled to become a free agent and the team continuing to rebuild and focus on younger/cheaper assets.
Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Arnold Ebiketie
The Falcons spent a second-round pick on Ebiketie in 2022 and while he hasn’t played a starting role just yet in the NFL, he has shown signs of improvement, specifically as a pass-rusher over the past two years. Ebiketie earned a 70.1 PFF pass-rush grade, came up with six sacks and finished with a strong 16.6% pressure rate in 2023. He did this on just 175 pass-rush snaps across 17 games, and with another year in Atlanta, should see an increased role in 2024.
Baltimore Ravens: LB Trenton Simpson
The Ravens are currently on pace to lose about 56% of their defensive linebacker snaps with both Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison slated to hit free agency, which should allow Simpson to earn more looks in 2024. Simpson was a third-round pick out of Clemson this past year and only played 49 defensive snaps as a rookie. His most significant playing time came in Week 18, when he earned an impressive 80.3 PFF defensive grade and 78.0 PFF coverage grade, coming up with five tackles and a sack.
Buffalo Bills: WR Khalil Shakir
Shakir is coming off a sophomore year where he increased his playing time and production but still didn’t become a fixture of the Buffalo offense until the latter portion of the year, including the playoffs. Shakir caught a touchdown in back-to-back playoff games, drawing 11 targets across those two games. On the year, he earned strong PFF grades across the board, including a 76.9 PFF receiving grade while totaling 49 receptions for 686 yards and four touchdowns with just one drop. This upcoming should be an opportunity for him to be the team’s full-time slot receiver after an encouraging second season.
Carolina Panthers: QB Bryce Young
It has to be Young. There isn’t another option at this point considering the very underwhelming rookie season from the 2023 first overall pick. Young threw for 11 touchdowns and 2,877 yards, earning just a 52.6 PFF passing grade (40th) while adding 10 interceptions across 16 games. Young was coming off a 2022 season at Alabama where he earned a 91.3 PFF passing grade — the highest mark among the 2023 rookie class. He was arguably the most accurate quarterback of the class, posting one of the best touchdown touchdown-to-interception ratios. The hope is that another year in the league and more emphasis on his supporting cast in 2024 should help Young get back on track in Year 2.
Cincinnati Bengals: S Jordan Battle
Battle was one of the highest-graded college safeties heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, and while he fell to the third round and didn’t get a starting job until Week 11 of his rookie season, all of those strong metrics remained. Battle earned top-10 marks at his position, both overall (82.5) and in run defense (81.3), while also adding a 76.4 PFF coverage grade (17th). He should be locked in as a full-time starter to kick off 2024 and continue his impressive play for the Bengals.
Chicago Bears: CB Kyler Gordon
Gordon improved greatly from Year 1 to Year 2, seeing an increase in his overall PFF grade (65.6) and PFF coverage grade (68.2), specifically. Gordon worked exclusively as the team’s nickel corner in 2023. In his rookie year, he was asked to play a combination of outside and in the slot, which hurt his overall performance. A second-round pick in 2022, having a full year to hone his craft in the slot should allow Gordon to get more comfortable and improve once again in Year 3 for a true breakout season.
Cleveland Browns: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Depending on how you look at it, Owusu-Koramoah could arguably have been considered a breakout this year, however, the team didn’t truly trust in him as their consistent lead linebacker until about Week 10. Owusu-Koramoah was averaging just 65% of the team’s defensive snaps prior to that point, and 86% after that. Owusu-Koramoah finished as the 20th highest-graded linebacker on the year and showed plenty of potential down the stretch that he could be an impact player for years to come, along with more playing time.
Dallas Cowboys: DI Osa Odighizuwa
Odighizuwa managed just three sacks on the year — all within the first two weeks of the season — and has never finished with more than four in a year. However, he also finished as the 15th-highest-graded interior defensive lineman (81.4) with the 12th-best PFF pass-rush grade (80.0). He should deliver even bigger sack numbers in future seasons as long as he continues to produce the strong underlying metrics that he has continued to build upon in his NFL career.
Denver Broncos: EDGE Baron Browning
Browning missed the first six weeks of the year and didn’t become a true starter for the Broncos until Week 8, when he delivered a six-pressure, two-sack game against the Kansas City Chiefs. This past season was just his second year playing as a full-time edge defender, and he improved his overall grade (74.5), run defense grade (80.7) and pass-rush grade (74.7) dramatically from his first year in that role. Browning should see plenty of opportunities to contribute again in 2023 and build upon his newfound skillset as an NFL edge.
Detroit Lions: S Ifeatu Melifonwu
Melifonwu, much like a few others previously mentioned, did not get a full-time starting gig until later in the year, but once he did, he flashed a lot of potential as a young player on the verge of breaking out. Melifonwu took over for Tracy Walker as the Lions’ starting safety in Week 14, and from that point on, including the playoffs (divisional round), he was the seventh-highest graded safety in the league (80.3). Melifonwu’s big play ability and strong coverage metrics are some of the more encouraging among this year’s defensive rookie class.
Green Bay Packers: OT Rasheed Walker
With David Bakhtiari’s consistent string of injuries and missed time, Walker stepped up in a big way this past season and figures to do so again in 2024 with the team likely to move on from Bakhtiari. Walker’s first year as an NFL starter earned him a respectable 66.3 overall PFF grade with his strength coming as a pass blocker. Offensive line is a difficult position to acclimate to the competition of the NFL, but Walker posting a strong 74.7 PFF pass-blocking grade (22nd) is an encouraging sign that he can build upon that in Year 2 as a starter.
Houston Texans: TE Brevin Jordan
Jordan didn’t get a ton of opportunities this season, but when he did, he was able to step up and post some inspiring numbers, including 1.89 yards per route run, which was tied for the sixth-most among tight ends who had run at least 150 routes (including through Divisional round). Jordan earned the fourth-highest receiving grade on the team, ahead of Dalton Schultz — a pending free agent — and could find himself in a larger role in 2024.
Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson
Richardson dealt with a lot of injuries in just four appearances this season before being shut down for the remainder of his rookie year before Week 5. However, during those four appearances, Richardson threw for three touchdowns, rushed for four more and threw just one interception in his limited playing time. He displayed a lot of the true dual-threat ability that he was drafted for and if he can avoid injuries, he should be able to deliver on a much larger scale in Year 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars: EDGE Travon Walker
Walker hasn’t yet delivered the high-end pass-rush metrics that most would expect from a former first-overall pick, but this was always the most likely case for Walker, who was very much touted as a work in progress as a pass-rusher. The positives through his first two seasons come from him still finding ways to win and produce strong pressure and sack numbers, greatly increasing his totals from his rookie to sophomore season. Walker’s 59 total pressures ranked tied for 22nd at his position, which he was able to turn into 10 sacks. Edge rushers typically start to hit their stride in Year 3 and beyond, and Walker at least appears to be heading in the right direction.
Kansas City Chiefs: LB Leo Chenal
Chenal has spent the last two seasons lower on the Chiefs depth chart, playing fewer than 500 defensive snaps in each year, while quietly producing strong grades and effective play. With both Willie Gay and Drue Tranquill pending free agents, there could be an opportunity for Chenal to see a larger role in 2024. Chenal ranked among the top-20 linebackers in overall grade (76.5) and run-defense grade (79.2) during the regular season and an increase in snaps next season could allow him to be a nice secondary linebacker option next to Nick Bolton in the starting lineup.
Las Vegas Raiders: EDGE Malcolm Koonce
Koonce went on an incredible run in the back half of the year, producing 38 pressures, eight sacks and an 83.4 PFF pass-rush grade, which ranked among the top 15 at his position from Weeks 9-18. Koonce earned himself a larger role for 2024, and with 2023 eighth-overall pick Tyree Wilson still a work in progress, Koonce should be expected to play a large part in the Raiders defense next season.
Los Angeles Chargers: EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu
Tuilpulotu’s rookie season was a pleasant surprise as the second-round pick posted 34 defensive stops and earned the fourth-highest PFF run-defense grade at his position (88.4) — which was better than any of his three years at USC. Tuipulotu also delivered 4.5 sacks and a 61.1 PFF pass-rush grade, leaving room to grow as he continues to play a large role in 2024.
Los Angeles Rams: CB Quentin Lake
Lake didn’t emerge on the Rams defense as a consistent contributor until about Week 6 of his second year in the league, where he began fulfilling the nickel corner duties for the defense. Lake struggled throughout this first year as a starter but eventually started to play better and increase his playing time, ultimately leading to a strong 70.0 overall PFF grade, 77.2 PFF run-defense grade and 66.6 PFF coverage grade, including the playoffs. The 2022 sixth-round pick appeared to perform well enough to potentially hold down that starting job for 2024.
Miami Dolphins: RB De’Von Achane
There’s an argument to be made that Achane’s rookie season was a breakout after posting over 800 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns. However, Achane did this on just 119 offensive snaps (49th) across 11 games in the regular season while also playing behind Raheem Mostert. Mostert is still scheduled to be with the team in 2023 but will be 32 years old and could handle a lighter workload, especially considering how efficient Achane was with his touches. A larger workload and a full season could equal a true breakout season for the 2023 third-round pick, even if he doesn’t maintain his historic 7.9 yards per carry.
Minnesota Vikings: LB Ivan Pace Jr.
Pace finished among the top-10 defensive rookies in overall PFF grade (77.2), pass-rush grade (78.0) and coverage grade (77.7). He did this in what was mostly a part-time role, though he did get the lead role when Jordan Hicks was on injured reserve, but for most of the year, he was limited to being the secondary linebacker in Brian Flores’ defense. Due to Hicks being a pending free agent and Pace showing such promise as a rookie, 2024 could be an even bigger year for the undrafted linebacker out of Cincinnati.
New England Patriots: CB Christian Gonzalez
Gonzalez’s rookie season was off to a hot start, earning a 79.3 PFF coverage grade and an 80.8 overall PFF grade through the first four weeks of the year before suffering a torn labrum that ended his season during Week 4. Gonzalez was the 17th overall pick of the Patriots in 2023 and immediately stepped into a starting role where he was targeted 24 times, allowed a 66.7% reception rate (no touchdowns) and came up with an interception on 127 coverage snaps.
New Orleans Saints: WR A.T. Perry
The Saints are slated to lose their second and third leading wide receivers in offensive snaps, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed, in free agency this offseason, and for a team with one of the worst cap situations in the league, it could rely on Perry for a larger role. Perry ran just over 200 routes on the year but managed four touchdowns and 246 yards. His 20.5 yards per reception led the team while his four receiving touchdowns tied for the second-most.
New York Giants: WR Wan’Dale Robinson
After tearing his ACL in his rookie season, Robinson returned as a more stable part of the Giants offense in 2023. His 76 targets tied for the team lead with Darius Slayton despite appearing in two fewer games, and he finished with the fourth-highest catch rate (78.9%) among the league’s wide receivers (min. 20% of targets). The Giants currently have five pending free agents at the position heading into the 2024 offseason, which could allow Robinson to contribute even further in Year 3.
New York Jets: EDGE Will McDonald IV
The Jets have been loading up on highly drafted edge defenders over the past couple of seasons, so much so that McDonald, a first-round pick in 2023, rarely saw the field. With just 99 NFL pass-rush snaps to his name, he was at least able to deliver 12 total pressures and three sacks. The Jets could be losing both Carl Lawson and Bryce Huff this offseason, which would allow McDonald to move up the depth chart and prove why he was such a highly-drafted pass rusher out of Iowa State.
Philadelphia Eagles: LB Nakobe Dean
This past season was supposed to be the breakout one for Nakobe Dean, but unfortunately, injuries derailed that opportunity and kept him off the field for the majority of the year. Dean played just 182 defensive snaps and earned a very strong 80.2 PFF run-defense grade to go along with an 89.2 PFF tackling grade. He didn’t miss a tackle — something that other Eagles defenders struggled with this past season. Once healthy, Dean should step right back into a starting role and deliver the quality linebacker play that Philadelphia was searching for this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Broderick Jones
The first-round pick out of Georgia undoubtedly struggled as a rookie, as he was thrown into the fire as a starter and posted just a 47.6 PFF pass-blocking grade. This was an area of strength for Jones in his final season with Georgia, as he earned an 84.9 PFF pass-blocking grade while not allowing a single sack and just nine pressures in 2022. Acclimating to the NFL is rarely easy for offensive linemen, but Jones has the potential to develop and improve in Year 2, as he will very likely be relied upon again as a starter.
San Francisco 49ers: S Ji’Ayir Brown
Brown was a third-round pick for the 49ers in 2023 and started just five regular season games while serving mostly as a backup to Tashaun Gipson and Talanoa Hufanga at the start of the year. With the 33-year-old Gipson slated to hit free agency this offseason, 2024 should be an opportunity for Brown to be a Week 1 starter. In the 2023 regular season, Brown earned a strong 77.9 overall PFF grade (14th), 77.5 PFF run-defense grade (18th), and a 74.5 PFF coverage grade (21st).
Seattle Seahawks: OT Charles Cross
Cross — a 2022 top-10 pick — is heading into Year 3 in the NFL and while his grades thus far haven’t been amazing, this is to be expected for young offensive linemen early in their NFL careers. Cross did slightly improve his overall PFF grade from 2022 (63.1) to 2023 (67.6), which included an also improved 69.7 PFF pass-blocking grade that ranked 32nd among qualifying offensive tackles. It wasn’t until his third year at Mississippi State that he also saw a significant improvement in his overall performance, and he’s trending in the right direction in the NFL as well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: LB SirVocea Dennis
Perhaps this is a really deep sleeper pick for a breakout player in Tampa Bay, but the Buccaneers are more than likely going to be without Devin White, who played over 900 defensive snaps for the team this past season and is set to hit free agency in 2024. And depending on if Lavonte David wants to sign another one-year deal with the team, it’s possible that he could also be gone, leaving a massive hole at linebacker. While Dennis was a fifth-round pick in 2023, he also earned elite PFF run-defense grades in his final college season (92.1), which could be a strength for the team to lean on even if it wants to use him as a sub-package option. He only played 104 defensive snaps as a rookie, with his best PFF grade coming in coverage (72.6) — something that wasn’t necessarily a strength for him in college, so that is somewhat encouraging to see.
Tennessee Titans: HB Tyjae Spears
Derrick Henry’s time in Tennessee appears to be over. This comes at a good time for Spears, who shined in limited action as a rookie, which includes a 76.8 PFF offensive grade (18th), 74.6 PFF receiving grade (eighth) and 77.3 PFF rushing grade (26th). Depending on what the team does to address the position, Spears could emerge as more than just a receiving down back and earn more carries based on his strong play in Year 1. He managed double-digit carries just once in 2023, racking up 74 rushing yards on 16 attempts for a strong 72.4 rushing grade.
Washington Commanders: EDGE KJ Henry
The Commanders traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat mid-season, and they are slated to lose both Casey Toohill and James Smith-Williams to free agency, leaving a once stellar edge group rather barren. Henry — a fifth-round pick out of Clemson — will be one of the remaining names this offseason and while he didn’t get a ton of opportunity as a rookie, his final year at Clemson was encouraging, where he posted an 84.0 pass-rush grade, 53 pressures and five sacks. Henry could be called upon to play a much larger role in 2024 for the Commanders.
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