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2020 NFL Receiving Props: Why the Kenny Golladay OVER is a bet to back

As we turn the calendar toward July, the degenerate juices are starting to flow. And while Week 1 (and beyond) lines have been up since the NFL schedule was released a couple of months ago, the real value in the marketplace is in the props market. I’ve written about the following props already this offseason:

Lamar Jackson rushing yardage prop

Tom Brady passing yardage prop

Derrick Henry rushing yardage prop

Joe Burrow passing yardage prop

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Most of these props show value on the under, if anything. Today I want to talk about a player for which we are bullish relative to the market — Detroit Lions wide receiver Kenny Golladay. His current price is 1099.5 yards, juiced at -110 to both the over and the under. Our current fantasy projections for Golladay have him at 1406.1 receiving yards on 83.7 receptions, which would indicate that there’s some value on the over here. Let’s talk about why.

Golladay’s Depth of Target is Conducive to High Yardage Totals

Despite having to play half of the season with Jeff Driskel and David Blough, Golladay generated 1,190 receiving yards on 65 catches. His average depth of target was over 16 yards, and a big fraction of both his targets and routes were down the field.  

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