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Examining Derrick Henry's 2020 NFL season rushing props

The Tennessee Titans took the NFL by storm in the second half of the 2019 campaign, finishing the regular season with seven wins in their last 10 games and building a 10-point lead in the AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium. Ryan Tannehill’s career rebirth under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith was the biggest reason, as the quarterback finished first in the league in yards per pass attempt and PFF grade while earning more than two wins above replacement. 

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Rushing champion Derrick Henry tagged along, racking up 1,540 yards in 15 games, with more than 1,200 coming after contact. His current rushing prop at Caesars is 1199.5 (-110 to the over, -110 to the under). Taking a look at our fantasy projections, this looks a little bit short, as we have Henry projected to rush for more than 1,350 yards on just under 300 carries — both league highs for the position. With Henry on the franchise tag for the 2020 season and relatively little in the way of competition for carries in Tennessee, I’m inclined to like the over here. However, here are a few things to consider before making a wager:

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