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Examining Joe Burrow's 2020 NFL season passing yardage props

After four years of disappointment, things are optimistic in PFF’s hometown of Cincinnati. A.J. Green returns from injury and joins a pretty solid stable of receivers in Tyler Boyd, John Ross and second-round pick Tee Higgins. The defense acquired three new starters in the secondary, along with D.J. Reader in free agency to go with Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins up front. The team's 2019 first-round pick, Jonah Williams, is poised to play his first snap in 2020 after being out for all of last season, adding some punch to what was one of the worst offensive lines in football.  

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The real reason for optimism, though, is the drafting of LSU quarterback Joe Burrow with the first pick in April’s draft. The most valuable player in the PFF College era, Burrow joins Zac Taylor’s second season at the helm. As we discussed during our AFC North preview on the PFF Forecast last week, given the new seven-team playoff format, the Bengals could contend for a playoff spot sooner rather than later.  

Where I want to go in this article, though, is to Joe Burrow’s passing yardage prop. At Caesars, it’s currently at 3746.5 yards (-110 to both the over and the under). This appears to be a pretty good number, as our fantasy projection has him at 3734 yards, good for 10th in the NFL. If I had to bet this prop, I would probably go under.  But here are a few reasons for both sides.

Reasons to Like the Over

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