• Best Bet: Jets Over 5.5 wins -160. A $20 bet could return $32.50 at BetMGM.
• Best Bet: Jets to make the playoffs +700. A $20 bet could return $160 at DraftKings.
• In hindsight, the 2021 New York Jets had a lot to overcome: A new coach, a new quarterback, an injury to a 2020 draft pick at a premium position in Mekhi Becton, another injury to prize 2021 free agent addition Carl Lawson, and a tough division consisting of three teams that ended up with winning records.
• This season comes with much higher expectations, as the Jets picked up four players in the top 36 of this April’s draft. Becton is injured again, but they replaced him with veteran Duane Brown. The roster appears more competent than it has in a while. But a preseason injury to Zach Wilson — less severe than originally thought — illuminates just how fragile this team’s straits are, as the men in green need a significant bump from the player who finished last year with 0.1 WAR.
|1||Sun, Sep 11||vs Baltimore|
|2||Sun, Sep 18||@ Cleveland|
|3||Sun, Sep 25||vs Cincinnati|
|4||Sun, Oct 2||@ Pittsburgh|
|5||Sun, Oct 9||vs Miami|
|6||Sun, Oct 16||@ Green Bay|
|7||Sun, Oct 23||@ Denver|
|8||Sun, Oct 30||vs New England|
|9||Sun, Nov 6||vs Buffalo|
|11||Sun, Nov 20||@ New England|
|12||Sun, Nov 27||vs Chicago|
|13||Sun, Dec 4||@ Minnesota|
|14||Sun, Dec 11||@ Buffalo|
|15||Sun, Dec 18||vs Detroit|
|16||Thu, Dec 22||vs Jacksonville|
|17||Sat, Jan 1||@ Seattle|
|18||Sat, Jan 8||@ Miami|
Win Total: 5.5 (-160 over, +130 under (43.5%))
We make the Jets a 6.4-win team per our simulation, with a 63.1% chance of going over 5.5 wins and a 36.9% chance of going under. Thus, there is a small edge on betting the juiced over on 5.5 wins. If you get a book that offers over 6 wins, the price would have to be -130 or better to make a wager.
Best Bet: Jets Over 5.5 wins is positive EV. A $20 bet could return $32.50 at BetMGM.
Make Playoffs: +700 yes, -1100 no
BREAKEVEN % yes: 12.5%
BREAKEVEN % no: 84.6%
We make the Jets a 14.5% chance to make the playoffs, which just like the win total, gives rise to an edge. At 7/1 you’re getting a pretty massive payoff if they were to sneak in, which is a good thing in exchange for tying up money that long.
Best Bet: Jets to make playoffs +700. A $20 bet could return $160 at DraftKings.
AFC East Title: +2200
We make the Jets a 4.5% proposition to win the AFC East, which is right around on market. They have to leapfrog three teams with 2021 winning records to do this, which is a bit of a stretch.
BREAKEVEN %: 4.3%
Best Bet: Avoid
Super Bowl: +15000
BREAKEVEN %: 0.7%
We make the Jets a 0.2% proposition to win the Super Bowl. The path to the playoffs in the AFC is only surpassed in difficulty by what the path to the Super Bowl will be for teams in that conference.
Best Bet: Avoid
Garrett Wilson +1800 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
BREAKEVEN %: 5.6%
The current state of the Jets from a betting standpoint can be painted pretty clearly with a look into the fact that they have two legitimate candidates for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Wilson was taken higher than Breece Hall, but the ex-Buckeyes receiver requires a decent amount in the way of development from Wilson to be considered a candidate for this award. At shorter odds than the Jets’ division futures, it might not be worth the payout to make this bet.
Breece Hall +1000 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
BREAKEVEN %: 9.1%
The Jets have assembled one of the more underrated offensive lines in the league, and though they don’t necessarily have the cakewalk schedule you’d like in terms of supporting a fat-tail bet on the running back position, Hall figures to be pretty good as a rookie.
Best Bet: Avoid
Breakeven % is the percentage a simulated event must occur to make it a positive EV bet.