• Bet Colts WR Michael Pittman o5.5 receptions vs Steelers: Teams are throwing 1.5% more than expected against the Steelers (4th), who have allowed the second-most receiving yards and 10th-most catches.
• Tee Higgins (9 catches), Stefon Diggs (8), Amari Cooper (7), Tyreek Hill (7) have all preyed on Pittsburgh's secondary this season.
• Bet Steelers RB Najee Harris u85.5 rush/rec. yards: 30th among 36 qualifiers in rushing yards over expected (RYOE), Harris is averaging less than 60 yards from scrimmage — well below this number.
Last updated: Nov. 28, 2:40 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 3 mins
Here are PFF staff best bets in Pittsburgh Steelers–Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39.5) on “Monday Night Football” in Week 12:
Ben Brown: Colts WR Michael Pittman — Longest Reception Over 23.5 yards (-109)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -120
• He’s started to receive WR1-type usage, closing in on the 30% target share threshold for first-read throws. The concern with this bet is his aDot is among the lowest in the NFL. Thankfully, Pittsburgh not only is poor in coverage — the Steelers see the fourth-highest aDot and allow the third-most yards per attempt. Even if Pittman doesn’t get a deep shot downfield, his ability to make defenders miss after the catch should be on full display and will lead to an easy cash of his over prop early on in this matchup.
Arjun Menon: Colts WR Michael Pittman — Over 5.5 Receptions (-105 BetMGM)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to -120
Tej Seth: Steelers RB Najee Harris — Under 85.5 Rush/Rec. yards (-115 BetMGM)
Bet Gameplan: Playable to 83.5
Tommy Jurgens: Colts -2.5 (-115 BetMGM)
• For all of Indianapolis’ faults, the defense (No. 12 in PFF grading) is not one of them. The team has tempered better offenses than the Steelers’, and expectations should be low for Pickett. It’s hard to win in the NFL. It’s even harder on the road, and with a rookie QB. This is a great number to get behind the Colts.
PFF staff best bets are 91-93-2 entering MNF in Week 12.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.