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Fantasy and DFS enthusiasts, bettors and analysts often rely on a wide array of statistics and models to gain a competitive edge. These range from basic box score stats to advanced metrics available in PFF's Premium Stats 2.0 and models like Josh Hermsmeyer‘s Buy Low model and WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating).
There is always room for new insights and analyses to help bettors and fantasy managers refine their strategies. That’s why I developed a new metric that offers several advantages over WOPR. Click here for an in-depth explanation of the model, my process and its advantages.
Quick Refresher
Using a Predicted Targets model, in conjunction with route-level PFF data, we can create two very stable and predictive metrics: Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards.
We can combine these and create a Predicted WOPR metric that is both more stable and predictive than Actual WOPR.
PWOPR = (1.5 * Share of Predicted Targets) + (.7 * Share of Predicted Air Yards)
Furthermore, we can compare this to the players’ Actual WOPR and Actual Fantasy Points to predict potential breakout players in upcoming weeks.
From the 2019-2024 seasons: Roughly 35% of players that appear on this list will score a TD in the following week. That is a raw 12.4% increase from a random player with above a median WOPR. Below is last week’s data.
Week 3 Recap
This was a true boom-or-bust week for the model. Tre Tucker and A.J. Brown highlight what the model framework is capable of, while Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel show that game script is still incredibly important.
- Emeka Egbuka: WR23 scoring 14.5 PPR points.
- D.K. Metcalf: WR30 scoring a TD with 12.2 PPR points.
- A.J. Brown: WR5. The Eagles were finally forced to pass the ball, and Brown was rewarded with 22.9 PPR points.
- Alec Pierce: Pierce has been shining each week in his PWOPR, dominating the Share of Predicted Air Yards and competing with Michael Pittman Jr. for Share of Predicted Targets. There is a case to be made that Pierce is the Colts’ WR1 when healthy. Pierce exited the game in the third quarter on a catch that would have put him in the 100-yard territory if not for the injury, finishing as WR34 with 10.7 PPR points
- Ladd McConkey: WR44 scoring 8.1 PPR points. Each week of the season, McConkey has finished with fewer receiving yards than the week before. That trend will not continue forever, and he gets an awesome matchup this week versus the New York Giants.
- Tre Tucker: The overall WR1 with eight receptions, 145 receiving yards and three touchdowns. This might just be the model’s greatest pick ever, scoring 40.9 PPR points.
- Deebo Samuel: WR66 scoring 4.9 PPR points.
- Cooper Kupp: WR64 scoring 5.1 PPR points.
- Kyle Pitts: TE18 scoring 7.9 PPR points, but going over his yards prop for the week.
Potential Breakouts: Week 4
As a quick refresher on how regression-to-the-mean models work: A player’s fantasy points per game (FPpG) are projected based on their three-week PWOPR average (explained more here). For this week’s projections, only two weeks of 2025 data is available and is used accordingly.
PWOPR is significantly more stable than FPpG and serves as a stronger indicator of future performance. To help identify potential breakout candidates, the residual is calculated by subtracting a player’s predicted FPpG from their actual FPpG. Players with a strong PWOPR and a residual of -3.0 or lower are included on this list. Players remain on the list until one of the following conditions is met:
- They fulfill their PWOPR potential with a big game
- Their PWOPR decreases to match their expected FPpG
This week is headlined by a trio of duos in different underperforming passing attacks. I will discuss every player on this list:
Garrett Wilson is obviously the best receiving option on his team, but I am not quite sure people understand just how much better he is. In 2025, Wilson has secured a 76.3 PFF receiving grade; the next-closest Jets receiver with at least five targets has a 54.7 mark. This puts him in a tier of his own when the Jets are forced to pass the ball.
With Justin Fields potentially returning as the starter this week, the Jets’ passing attack becomes questionable. Even while losing by 27 to Buffalo, Fields only registered 11 attempts at the start of the fourth quarter before he was injured. In a shootout with the Steelers, Fields only attempted 22 passes. Fields has shown the ability to pass for 275-plus yards in the past, but the Jets seem uniquely determined to not throw the ball when Fields is at quarterback.
Even with a low-pass-attempt team, the matchup this week is ideal for Wilson. Per the PFF Premium matchups tool, Wilson has one of the best matchups of the week. Wilson’s biggest obstacle will be a run-heavy Dolphins team, facing off against one of the worst run defenses in the league (fifth-worst team PFF run-defense grade).
Chris Olave leads the NFL in targets with 36 and has a 71.7 PFF receiving grade. Additionally, the Saints’ offense has not been as bad as most thought it would be heading into the season. Per Timo Riske’s weekly statistical review, the Saints are an average passing offense, far above their pre-season expectation of being a bottom offense in the league. If this level of passing efficiency continues, Olave should have some big games heading his way.
The Saints are 16.5-point underdogs this week against the Bills and should be in a position to air it out from the beginning of the game. Olave doesn’t have quite the pure WR/CB matchup that Wilson does, but the former should see significantly more volume.
The Bills have an average coverage unit (57.5 team PFF coverage grade) and play a ton of zone coverage, preventing single coverage to develop in most situations. The good news for Olave is that he is one of the few receivers in the NFL whose THREAT increases in non-single coverage situations, going from a base rate of 28.7% to 32.0%.
A.J. Brown/DeVonta Smith: Jalen Hurts recorded 17 passing yards in the first half against the Rams; in the second half, when the Eagles were finally forced to throw the ball, he tallied 209 yards. This model looks back over the last three weeks, and in general, the Eagles have not been passing the ball — causing Brown’s and Smith’s projections to far exceed their actual production. These are two elite wideouts that, when the Eagles pass the ball, they will be very successful.
The Eagles are 3.5-point favorites against a Buccaneers team with a better offensive and defensive strength (per Timo Riske’s weekly review mentioned earlier). This could absolutely be a spot where Brown and Smith both have great games. Tampa fields the fourth-best team PFF run-defense grade, which could funnel Philly into a passing attack.
Justin Jefferson/Jalen Nailor: J.J. McCarthy has only one quarter graded above a 70.0, highlighting inconsistent decision-making. Justin Jefferson holds the seventh-best PWOPR in the NFL while having the 25th most fantasy points. As Judah Fortgang mentioned on the PFF betting podcast last week, Carson Wentz might be a massive upgrade over McCarthy. We did not get to see that last week, as the Vikings routed the Bengals very quickly. On the other hand, Nailor will likely lose snaps to Jordan Addison this week as he comes back from suspension, but Nailor should still get valuable deep routes and occasional targets.
The Vikings draw the Steelers this week, who have the 10th-worst team PFF coverage grade and fourth-best team pass rush grade — but get quick pressure at the 13th-best rate. It is hard to tell just how much of an upgrade Wentz is over McCarthy at this point, but I do believe Wentz will be able to support this Vikings’ passing attack better.
Drake London/Darnell Mooney: The Falcons’ offense did not look great last week, putting up 0 points against the Panthers — who have the ninth-worst total PFF grade in the NFL. Penix has been PFF’s second-worst-graded QB in the NFL and is only one of two healthy starting quarterbacks with zero big-time throws this season. Dalton Wasserman spoke about this in the PFF Week 3 review show: The Falcons’ offense is incredibly stale and predictable. Atlanta has made some offensive staff changes, which hopefully means the team is willing to shake things up in its offensive playcalling.
As for this week, the Falcons have an awesome passing matchup against the Commanders, who possess the worst team PFF coverage grade in the NFL. The Commanders run the fifth-most Cover 1 in the NFL, where both London and Mooney thrive. London sees a THREAT increase from 25.7% when not facing Cover 1 to 30% in Cover 1 situations, while Mooney experiences an increase from 19% when not facing Cover 1 to 23.8% when facing Cover 1. This could not be a better bounce-back spot for a passing attack, although Penix’s PFF grade goes from 75.5 when not facing Cover 1 to 60.9 when facing Cover 1.
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