Fantasy Football: What should we expect from first-round running backs?

• Touted runners all produce close to RB2 productivity: The average fantasy finish for a first-round rookie running back is the RB18 with 970 rushing yards, seven rush touchdowns, 42 catches for 329 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving scores.

• Year 2 becomes much more volatile: Certain players were significantly better, while others saw their production dip in a big way.

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Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes

Last time, we looked at what we can reasonably expect from first overall quarterbacks in fantasy football. We concluded that, on the whole, a low-end QB2 in superflex formats sees those players creep up to mid-QB2s by their second year.

This time around, we’re looking at running backs. The discourse over running backs drafted in the top 10 is currently being played out with the Las Vegas Raiders and Ashton Jeanty. Although that's a real life draft problem, it’s a different story in fantasy football. Such a high pick being spent on a running back means they’re probably getting a bellcow load, and their pre-draft process has probably been filled with comparisons to whatever generational running back you want.

That type of draft label sets the bar high and almost certainly means highly drafted rookie runners will be drafted in the top five of dynasty rookie drafts, and probably won’t get past Round 3 or 4 in other formats.

For the purposes of this exercise, we’re going to look at running backs selected in the first round of the NFL draft, specifically how their rookie seasons played out and what they did in Year 2. Why the first round? Well, the debate over if you should spend your top pick on a player at a position which often bears fruit with mid- and late-round picks is an endless one. If a back is selected with one of those first 32 picks, it immediately skyrockets their fantasy draft stock.

We’re also going to look at what they did after their rookie contract. Running back is the most volatile position in fantasy football, and nowhere is it more important than dynasty to know when to get off a back. Wait a year late and forget about it, and the value of your running back crashes harder than a toddler after too much birthday cake.

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Since the 2015 NFL Draft, 16 running backs have been taken in the first round. In order of draft, they are: Todd Gurley II, Melvin Gordon III, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel, Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton.

Not including Jeanty and Hampton — as their rookie seasons are still currently playing out — and Etienne will also be a non-applicable member — as he spent the entirety of his rookie season out injured — of the 13 other running backs, eight of them had at least 200 regular season carries in their maiden NFL campaign. Four of those nine players topped the 250 carry mark.

Don’t be fooled, though. This level of volume doesn’t indicate an elite rushing offense, much like a toddler’s crayon mural doesn’t make them the next Picasso.

For example, during Gurley’s 2015 rookie season, the former Georgia Bulldog had 229 of the then-St. Louis Rams’ 441 rushing attempts (15th in the NFL that season), but the offense as a whole had a -0.071 rushing EPA per play mark (15th in 2015). Similarly, the Pittsburgh Steelers logged bottom-10 numbers in 2021— Harris’ rookie campaign — in both EPA per play (-0.075, 22nd) and in rushing attempts (420, 27th). The Steelers’ 60.2 PFF run-blocking grade that season also made it a bottom-10 unit in the NFL, and Harris’ 913 yards after contact were the third-most behind only Jonathan Taylor and Nick Chubb.

When it comes to catches, nine of the 13 backs tallied at least 30 catches during their rookie campaign, with five of those nine grabbing an impressive 50 passes. With standard PPR scoring, that’s an extra 50 points across the season just from catching passes. With modern backs being asked to be an increasing Swiss army knife in an offense, it pays dividends not to rely solely on rushing volume to rack up points.

Here are the stats and fantasy football finishes for those 16 rookie runners:

Player	RB Finish	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Receptions	Rec. Yds	Rec. TDs
Todd Gurley	RB9	1,106	10	21	188	0
Melvin Gordon	RB43	641	0	33	132	0
Ezekiel Elliott	RB2	1,631	15	32	363	1
Leonard Fournette	RB10	1,040	9	36	302	1
Christian McCaffrey	RB9	435	2	80	651	5
Saquon Barkley	RB1	1,307	11	91	721	4
Rashaad Penny	RB68	448	2	9	75	0
Sony Michel	RB34	931	6	7	50	0
Josh Jacobs	RB21	1,150	7	20	166	0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB22	803	4	36	297	1
Najee Harris	RB3	1,200	7	74	467	3
Bijan Robinson	RB8	969	4	58	487	4
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB9	945	10	52	316	1

Based on these numbers, the average fantasy finish for a first-round rookie running back is the RB18 with 970 rushing yards, seven rush touchdowns, 42 catches for 329 receiving yards and 1.5 receiving scores. It makes for comfortable mid-RB2 territory.

However, if we narrow the sample size to backs selected in the top 10 of the NFL draft (Gurley, Elliott, Fournette, McCaffrey, Barkley, Robinson) the average finish is the RB6 with 1,081 rush yards, 8.5 rush touchdowns, 53 catches for 452 receiving yards and 2.5 receiving touchdowns. Those averages make for a league-winning back. 

If you take this average and project both Jeanty and Hampton’s finishes based on what they’ve produced so far, the results are thus:

• Jeanty’s 17 game projection: 1,031 rush yards, 7.5 rush TDs, 42 catches, 257 receiving yards, 5.5 receiving TDs. 248.8 PPR points (enough for RB11 in 2024)
• Hampton’s 17 game projection: 1,067 rush yards, 6.8 rush TDs, 68 catches, 462 receiving yards. 261.7 PPR points (enough for RB10 in 2024).

Jeanty may have disappointed relative to expectations so far this season — a large part of that could be a Raiders offense that many were sneakily high on being dire through the first half of the campaign. But based on his projections, he’s a low-end RB1 for fantasy managers.

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So, how did these rookie backs build on their inaugural NFL season?

Player	RB Finish	Rushing Yards	Rushing TDs	Receptions	Rec. Yds	Rec. TDs
Todd Gurley	RB15	885	6	43	327	0
Melvin Gordon	RB7	997	10	41	419	2
Ezekiel Elliott	RB12	983	7	26	269	2
Leonard Fournette	RB41	439	5	22	185	1
Christian McCaffrey	RB2	1,098	7	108	874	6
Saquon Barkley	RB10	1,003	6	52	438	2
Rashaad Penny	RB58	370	3	8	83	1
Sony Michel	RB31	912	7	12	94	0
Josh Jacobs	RB8	1,065	12	33	238	0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	RB44	517	4	19	129	2
Najee Harris	RB14	1,038	7	41	229	3
Bijan Robinson	RB3	1,456	14	61	431	1
Jahmyr Gibbs	RB1	1,412	16	52	517	4

This averages out at 937 rushing yards, eight rushing scores, 40 catches for 326 yards and two receiving touchdowns. It gives for an average standard PPR fantasy score of 225.14 points across the season, which would have ranked as the RB18 in 2024. 

Taken as a whole, there is very little change across the board when it comes to the averages. Yet, within these numbers are swings wilder than a rookie golfer.

Gordon was the highest riser of the group across multiple categories, jumping 36 spots in overall finish. The Wisconsin product improved on his rookie rushing touchdown total of zero to 10, and added an extra 227 receiving yards onto his rookie receiving production. Meanwhile, Fournette tumbled 31 places in the overall running back year-end fantasy ranking, while Barkley’s air production dipped significantly, being 39 catches and 283 yards worse off in his second season. Elsewhere, McCaffrey picked up his rushing production by over 600 yards, while Elliott’s dipped by over 600.

It’s very much a juxtaposition, but overall, the numbers remain consistent. But when looking at the means by which those consistent results arrive, it is a cacophony of huge peaks and troughs across the board, giving further evidence to the volatility of the position. If you’re a rebuilding team in a dynasty format, your wisest move is always moving off a running back having or coming off an outstanding season. Sure, they may recapture that output again in a year or two years, but the odds dictate that you’ll leave value on the table chasing another RB1 finish — especially for backs selected in the back end of the first round.

Another set of variables in the volatility of the position from a real life and fantasy standpoint are contracts and age. Derrick Henry was a point of perplexity for many fantasy general managers over the offseason. On the one hand, he doesn’t adhere to the same biology as us mere mortals and gets stronger with age. On the other hand, his massive workload — 325 carries in 2024, second-most behind Barkley and his fourth season of over 300 carries — and the fact that Father Time has a perfect record meant Henry stockholders had — perhaps for the first time — a touch of anxiety over his output. Meanwhile, buyers weren’t willing to sink extensive draft capital into a player who, based on the evidence that has gone before him, is closer to the cliff edge with each passing year.

Running backs receiving big-money contracts seems in vogue again, as is the position as a whole. But there are still teams willing to let backs walk, or reduce the snaps of high-priced runners if an unassuming and cheaper player further down the depth chart makes waves. In a league where funds have to be carefully allocated and every position is becoming more expensive, cash has to be saved somewhere — and running backs are often at the forefront of an organization’s financial pruning.

Take Elliott, for example. In 2019, the Dallas Cowboys inked him to a massive six-year, $90 million contract. Elliott galloped for 1,357 yards that season and 12 rushing scores. His 82.8 PFF rushing grade was the highest of his career and fourth-highest in the NFL that season.

But, 2019 was perhaps Elliott’s last great fantasy season (he finished as the RB3). His 2020 and 2021 fantasy output was still very good: He finished as the RB9 and RB7, respectively, but his yards per carry were slowly starting to tick down — 4.0 in 2020 and 4.2 in 2021, compared to 4.5 in 2019. On top of that, his carries were declining — 244 in 2020, 237 in 2021 — and his explosive runs (runs of 15 or more yards) plummeted from 12 in 2019 to five in 2020 and six in 2021.

This is all to say that Elliott’s contract gave dynasty owners some security that he was not going to get cut anytime soon, it couldn’t guarantee that his production would become more and more touchdown-dependent. Given touchdowns are themselves a fluctuating variable, it created a situation as stable as a house of cards being built in a wind tunnel.

Gurley is another cautionary tale — perhaps more so, as lingering knee issues were always bubbling under the surface of the former Rams runner. Gurley converted a 1,300-plus-yard and double-digit touchdown 2017 campaign into a four-year, $67.5 million contract heading into the 2018 season.

Much like Elliott, Gurley justified the contract in a huge way in Year 1, slashing, gashing and dashing his way to over 1,800 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. And, much like Elliott, Gurley finished as the RB3 in fantasy following that extension. Also, much like Elliott, Gurley’s production across the board fell, and his fantasy output became increasingly propped up by touchdowns.

In 2019, Gurley concluded as the RB14, but his 12 touchdowns dragged him to that finish. That season, he didn’t top 100 rushing yards once, and had seven games of under 50 rushing yards. But in four of those, he scored at least one touchdown — saving what would have been a disastrous fantasy day.

Fantasy football is all about timing, and rarely do you get it absolutely perfect. But in a world of imperfections, you want to be a year early getting out on a player rather than a year late.

Using premium fantasy draft capital on a running back who has had premium real life draft capital invested into them can get huge returns right out of the gate — as those selected in the top 10 since 2015 illustrate. Where it gets dicey is when looking at those backs picked toward the tail end of the first round, and when it comes time for backs to reup.

In the game of chicken with running back production and value, sell while those players are still coming off eye-popping numbers. Sure, they may put up a year extra of elite production — maybe even solid RB2 fantasy numbers two years removed from you getting off that particular bandwagon. But, you’ll breathe a sigh of relief when your league mate slides into your DMs trying to flip him back to you for back up tight ends and late-round picks just so they don’t have to deal with the headache anymore.