- Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers: Both teams field beatable run defenses.
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders: The Raiders’ soft run defense could allow the 49ers to employ a split backfield.
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens: Jacksonville will run out the clock on Thursday night.
Games featuring two high-powered offenses and/or defensive disadvantages can create favorable fantasy football matchups that increase a given player’s potential fantasy-scoring output. Identifying these ahead of time gives fantasy managers an edge over the competition. The article below breaks down three running game matchups to target in Week 9.
Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
Both the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers field beatable run defenses. Denver misses tackles and gives up explosive plays voluminously. Carolina allows opponents to run the ball efficiently.
Broncos and Panthers rushing data among NFL offenses
| Metric | Denver Broncos | Carolina Panthers |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 57.6 (T-No. 30) | 84.6 (No. 7) |
| EPA Per Run Play | -0.055 (No. 19) | 0.003 (No. 10) |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate | 37.9% (No. 27) | 44.2% (No. 10) |
| Rush Att. | 196 (No. 19) | 169 (No. 30) |
| Neutral Game Run Play Rate | 36.8% (No. 29) | 34.5% (No. 31) |
| Run Play Rate Winning By 4.0-plus Points | 50.5% (No. 12) | 47.1% (No. 20) |
| Explosive Run Plays | 14 (T-No. 25) | 18 (T-No. 19) |
Broncos rookie running back Jonah Coleman handled 15-of-22 backfield touches (68.2%) in Week 8. He has earned a 60.7 PFF rushing grade this season and can be treated as an RB2 moving forward.
Broncos and Panthers run-defense data among NFL defenses
| Metric | Denver Broncos | Carolina Panthers |
| PFF Run-Defense Grade | 57.0 (No. 26) | 57.6 (No. 23) |
| EPA Allowed Per Run Play | -0.067 (No. 17) | 41.5% (No. 17 |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate Allowed | 39.7% (No. 9) | 41.5% (No. 17) |
| Missed Tackles | 71 (No. 32) | 29 (T-No. 13) |
| Run-Play Rate Faced | 36.8% (No. 24) | 40.1% (No. 14) |
| Yards Allowed Per Run Play | 4.4 (No. 23) | 4.8 (No. 28) |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 1,023 (No. 28) | 985 (T-No. 24) |
| Explosive Run Plays Allowed | 28 (T-No. 29) | 23 (T-No. 20) |
Both run games should play effectively this week.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
San Francisco 49ers starting running back Christian McCaffrey entered the team’s Week 8 bye with a hamstring strain. 49ers backup running back Kaelon Black accordingly handled 13-of-28 positional touches (46.4%) in Week 7, and could receive a similar workload again this week if the 49ers wish to ease McCaffrey back into action. McCaffrey has recorded a 75.9 PFF rushing grade this season, while Black has played to a 65.0 PFF rushing grade.
PFF scores and schedule implies the 49ers will score 30.75 points as 9.5-point road favorites, signalling a run-heavy game script.
49ers rushing data among NFL offenses
| Metric | Data | Rank |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 76.8 | No. 13 |
| EPA Per Run Play | 0.046 | No. 3 |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate | 50.5% | No. 1 |
| Rush Att. | 191 | T-No. 23 |
| Neutral Game Run Play Rate | 46.3% | No. 6 |
| Run Play Rate Winning By 4.0-plus Points | 47.5% | No. 16 |
| Explosive Run Plays | 26 | T-No. 6 |
The Raiders field one of the NFL's worst run defenses.
Raiders run-defense data among NFL defenses
| Metric | Data | Rank |
| PFF Run-Defense Grade | 55.1 | No. 27 |
| EPA Allowed Per Run Play | -0.036 | No. 26 |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate Allowed | 45.1% | No. 30 |
| Missed Tackles | 34 | T-No. 20 |
| Run-Play Rate Faced | 41.8% | No. 9 |
| Yards Allowed Per Run Play | 5.1 | No. 32 |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 1,166 | No. 31 |
| Explosive Run Plays Allowed | 32 | No. 31 |
Both 49ers running backs could play productively this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens
Jacksonville Jaguars No. 1 running back Bhayshul Tuten (foot/ankle) is ailing, and the team has no reason to play him in an expectedly lopsided victory over the injury-devastated Baltimore Ravens.
Jaguars No. 2 running back Chris Rodriguez (hand) is practicing in a limited capacity through two Week 9 practices and tentatively projects as the team’s lead rusher. Jaguars No. 3 running back and passing game specialist LeQuint Allen could warrant RB4/flex treatment. Tuten has secured a 91.2 PFF rushing grade this season, ahead of Rodriguez (79.3). Meanwhile, Allen has notched a 49.1 PFF receiving grade.
PFF scores and schedule implies the Jaguars will score 25.0 points as 9.5-point road favorites, signalling an extremely run-oriented game plan.
Jaguars rushing data among NFL offenses
| Metric | Data | Rank |
| PFF Rushing Grade | 88.5 | No. 4 |
| EPA Per Run Play | 0.006 | No. 9 |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate | 45.7% | No. 7 |
| Rush Att. | 200 | No. 15 |
| Neutral Game Run Play Rate | 39.9% | No. 25 |
| Run Play Rate Winning By 4.0-plus Points | 51.3% | No. 9 |
| Explosive Run Plays | 20 | T-No. 26 |
The Ravens will start injured No. 3 quarterback Joe Fagnano (ankle) in Week 9’s Thursday night game. He finished with a 48.6 PFF passing grade via 40 offensive snaps in Week 8.
Jacksonville’s defense/special teams (D/ST) unit and ground game will thrive in a clock-killing, ball-control game environment. The Jaguars’ elite defense allows the third-lowest EPA per play (-0.087).
Ravens run-defense data among NFL defenses
| Metric | Data | Rank |
| PFF Run-Defense Grade | 69.0 | No. 6 |
| EPA Allowed Per Run Play | -0.057 | No. 20 |
| Positive EPA Rushing Rate Allowed | 43.0% | No. 22 |
| Missed Tackles | 34 | T-No. 20 |
| Run-Play Rate Faced | 38.4% | No. 18 |
| Yards Allowed Per Run Play | 3.8 | No. 7 |
| Rushing Yards Allowed | 822 | No. 15 |
| Explosive Run Plays Allowed | 17 | T-No. 8 |
The Jaguars’ rushing attack will play very productively on Thursday night.
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