- Starts of the Week, not sit-your-studs: This is a list of players poised to beat expectations, with my confidence tag at the end of each outlook. Use them to win close decisions, not to bench superstars.
- Courtland Sutton has a mismatch: Dallas has allowed nearly 70% of contested targets to be caught, and Sutton ranks top 10 in both contested catches and 15-plus-yard receptions. With a clear matchup advantage, he’s a confident WR2 play.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Quarterbacks
Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is likely missing Week 8 due to a high ankle sprain, and Andy Dalton will step into his place. Dalton gets a favorable matchup this week, as he faces a Buffalo Bills defense that is allowing 17.7 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The game script should demand high-volume throwing to be able to keep up with a high-powered Bills offense. If you need a streamer, Andy Dalton is a good option in week 8.
Confidence Level: Upside 1-week streamer
Michael Penix Jr, Atlanta Falcons
It has been an up-and-down season for Michael Penix Jr, and if he is healthy, this matchup profiles as one of the up weeks. The Miami defense has allowed 1,519 yards through the air this season, not to mention an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
WR1 Drake London also has a good matchup against the Dolphins’ defensive back room, according to the PFF Matchup tool. With the Dolphins ranking 30th in team PFF coverage grade this season, it could be a big day for the whole passing offense.
Confidence Level: Upside QB1
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Speaking of secondaries that have been torched this season, the Cowboys’ defense has allowed 1,938 yards through the air (1st) and 16 touchdowns (2nd).
The Cowboys’ 16th-graded pass rush unit now faces PFF’s top-graded pass-blocking offensive line in the Broncos. There are mismatches all over the place in this matchup. With the way Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense are playing, this game has shootout written all over it, with Bo Nix and the Denver receivers reaping the benefits.
Confidence Level: Top-10 upside
Wide Receivers
Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots
Over the last two weeks, Kayshon Boutte has averaged 19.9 PPR points and carved out a much larger role in New England’s offense. This week, he draws a Cleveland defense surrendering 15-plus PPR per game to opposing wide receivers, which lines up well with his recent usage and production. If his role holds, Boutte profiles as a high-upside flex this week. Stream with confidence.
Confidence Level: High-End Flex play
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Similar to the reasoning for Bo Nix being a start this week, Courtland Sutton has a mismatch all over the field against the Dallas secondary.
The Dallas defense is currently allowing nearly 70% of contested targets to be caught this season, and Courtland Sutton is currently sixth in the NFL in contested catches. Pair that with the fact that he is currently ninth in the NFL in receptions of 15-plus yards (9), and that the Cowboys’ defense has given up 38 explosive receptions this season (8th-most).
Fire up Courtland Sutton with confidence. I also like Troy Franklin as an upside Flex this week.
Confidence Level: High-End WR2
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
McMillan has a great matchup this week against the Bills' defense, although he will not have his quarterback, Bryce Young at the helm.
However, even with Dalton in at quarterback, McMillan has tremendous potential this week. The Bills‘ offense should be able to score frequently against the Panthers' defense — which, while the unit is trending up, is not at the level to stop an offense like Buffalo quite yet. If Dalton locks onto McMillan, he could have a field day against the Bills' secondary.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
The Saints lost Kendre Miller last week for the season, who was eating more and more into Alvin Kamara’s snap share. Without Miller, it is now down to Kamara and rookie Devin Neal.
Kamara, one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, faces a Buccaneers defense this week that has yielded the most receiving yards to running backs in the NFL this season (422). The Bucs should jump out to an early lead in this game, and the Saints will be forced to throw the ball, with a lot of those short targets going to Alvin Kamara out of the backfield.
Confidence Level: High-End RB2
Breece Hall, New York Jets
With question marks at quarterback heading into this week, the Jets are going to need to lean on the run game, and this is the matchup to do it. I highlighted the Bengals as a defense to attack for running backs this week in my bye week survival guide, and Breece Hall should dominate.
Bengals run defense this season
- 855 yards allowed
- 6 TDs
- 545 yards allowed after contact
Bengals' pass defense against RBs this season:
- 310 yards allowed (4th most)
- 4 TDs (1st)
Based on the stats and how I believe the game script will be played out for the Jets, Breece Hall should have a field day.
Confidence Level: High-End RB1
Tyler Allegeier, Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr is a quarterback start, and backup running back Tyler Allegier is a running back start this week for the Falcons. I expect this offense to be firing on all cylinders.
The Dolphins have allowed the most rushing yards (898) and five touchdowns on the ground to running backs this season. I believe Atlanta’s passing game will shine early, and that the Falcons will get out to a big lead in this game — and then lean on the running game. The Dolphins' run defense, which is the 24th-graded unit in the NFL. will not be able to hold up against the two-headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegeier. Both of the Falcons’ backs are startable this week.
Confidence Level: Upside Flex play
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