• WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs vs. CB Michael Davis, Los Angeles Chargers: Rice gets a high-ceiling breakout opportunity against Los Angeles’ lacking cornerbacks.

• WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CB Jeff Okudah, Atlanta Falcons: Godwin contends with Okudah’s air-tight coverage in Week 7.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players who should either be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 7.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders vs. CB Adoree’ Jackson, New York Giants

Terry McLaurin (71.4 PFF receiving grade) reclaimed his role as Washington's offensive focal point, dominating via first-read targets while earning a season-high 12 targets against the Atlanta Falcons (72.0 PFF coverage grade). He enters a Week 7 shadow-coverage matchup against injured (neck) and struggling No. 1 cornerback Adoree’ Jackson (37.0 PFF coverage grade).

McLaurin earned a 50.0% first-read target rate in Week 6, ranking first among 71 NFL wide receivers with at least 15 first-read-target snaps. He turned the opportunities into two missed tackles forced (tied for fourth), two explosive pass plays (tied for eighth) and 2.95 yards per route run (14th). Crucially, six of his 10 first-read targets came via high–value throws over the middle.

Head coach Ron Rivera similarly featured McLaurin in the team’s narrow 34-31 Week 4 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles (64.0 PFF coverage grade) where McLaurin again excelled, turning a 25.0% first-rate target rate into two explosive pass plays and 2.25 yards per route run on 10 total targets.

Washington has scored 24 or more points in three of six games this year, two of which occurred in conjunction with McLaurin’s featured role. The positive outcome should yield a hefty first-read-target workload against New York in Week 7.

New York head coach Brian Daboll tasked Jackson with shadowing San Francisco 49ers No. 1 wide receiver Deebo Samuel (79.1 PFF receiving grade) in Week 3 and Seattle Seahawks nominal No. 1 wide receiver Tyler Lockett (74.1 PFF receiving grade) and stuck his 2022 No. 1 cornerback Fabian Moreau (37.1 PFF coverage grade) on McLaurin in Weeks 13 and 15 last year.

The table below ranks in parentheses Jackson’s perimeter wide receiver coverage data among 64 NFL cornerbacks with at least 50 perimeter coverage snaps.

McLaurin will take limited repetitions against newly installed slot cornerback Cor’Dale Flott (68.2 PFF slot coverage grade), whose 77.8% catch rate allowed to opposing slot receivers ties for 27th among 38 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 25 slot coverage snaps. Flott’s inviting rate results from battles against mildly productive opponents: Miami Dolphins slot receiver Braxton Berrios (70.5 PFF receiving grade) and Seattle Seahawks slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (55.8 PFF receiving grade).

McLaurin is a borderline WR1/2.

WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs vs. CB Michael Davis, Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid has quietly groomed second-round rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice (81.0 PFF receiving grade) for the No. 1 role, and de facto X-wide receiver Justin Watson’s (65.1 PFF receiving grade) Week 6 elbow dislocation creates an opportunity. Rice is startable as a points-per-reception WR2.

The game’s 48.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 7’s second highest. FanDuel implies Kansas City to score 27.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Kansas City a 24.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, fifth best on the week.

Rice transitioned from a 57.7% pre-snap alignment slot rate in Weeks 1-5 to a 33.3% rate across all three pre-snap positions following Watson’s injury. Fantasy managers should expect similarly diverse pre-snap alignments this week, with special attention paid to No. 2 perimeter cornerback Michael Davis (28.8 PFF perimeter wide receiver coverage grade).

Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 50 perimeter coverage snaps, Davis ranks outside the top 50 in targeted rate (36.5%), catch rate allowed (71.4%), yards allowed per coverage snap (3.27) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.3%). No. 1 cornerback Asante Samuel Jr.‘s (81.6 PFF perimeter wide receiver coverage grade) respective 30.4%, 64.3%, 2.46 and 4.3% rates rank 29th or worse.

Among 34 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 30 slot coverage snaps, Ja’Sir Taylor’s (33.7 PFF slot coverage grade) 1.63 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks 20th and his 5.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks 29th.

Rice has quietly amassed 18 first-read targets, trailing only tight end Travis Kelce’s (89.1 PFF receiving grade) 30 among Kansas City pass-catchers.

The keys to Rice’s impending successes are his first-read, over-the-middle targets. Among 24 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 such receiving snaps and 15 such targets, Rice’s 57.7% first-read, over-the-middle target rate ranks first, his 5.77 yards per route run and 7.7 yards after the catch per reception rank third, his three missed tackles forced ties for eighth and his four explosive pass plays ties for No. 12.

Rice is quietly a top-24 PPR wide receiver in Week 7.

WR Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints vs. CB Tre Herndon, Jacksonville Jaguars

New Orleans wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (70.1 PFF offense data) runs routes at a 42.3% pre-snap alignment slot plurality, giving him frequent access to Jacksonville slot cornerback Tre Herndon (69.5 PFF coverage grade). Shaheed is startable as a PPR WR3 with long-touchdown upside.

As detailed in “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Jacksonville’s defense struggles to contain downfield wide receivers, allowing 13.83 yards per coverage snap on 15-plus-yard wide receiver targets. The secondary devastatingly lost perimeter cornerback Tyson Campbell (69.1 PFF coverage grade) to a Week 6 hamstring strain, increasing Shaheed’s already strong odds of ripping off explosive pass plays.

New Orleans quarterback Derek Carr’s (65.2 PFF passing grade) continues to push the ball further downfield each week, indicating his Week 3 AC joint sprain is successfully rehabilitating.

The table below ranks in parentheses Shaheed’s receiving data among 65 NFL wide receivers with at least 150 receiving snaps.

Among 45 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 first-read-target receiving snaps on throws 15-plus yards downfield, Shaheed’s 5.89 yards per route run ranks 10th and his six explosive pass plays ties for 15th.

The table below ranks in parentheses Herndon’s slot coverage data among 38 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 25 slot coverage snaps.

The stage is set for Shaheed to repeatedly rip off chunk gains as a PPR WR3 with top-23 upside.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. CB Jeff Okudah, Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay wide receiver Chris Godwin (82.0 PFF receiving grade) has produced just two games with 60 or more receiving yards, and both outings coincide with No. 1 wide receiver Mike Evans’ (76.1 PFF receiving grade) initial hamstring strain (Week 4) and his first game back (Week 6) following the team’s Week 5 bye. Godwin now faces Atlanta cornerback Jeff Okudah (67.2 PFF coverage grade), whose post-foot injury performance in Weeks 3-6 hovers near league-best levels. Godwin is just a PPR WR4.

The game’s 38.5-point FanDuel over/under is the second lowest on the week, and Tampa Bay is implied to score just 20.5 points.

Godwin’s 36 targets tie for No. 34 among NFL wide receivers and Weeks 4 and 6 are the only contests where he led Evans in first-read target rate.

Godwin has failed to earn eight or more targets in four of five games, and that is unlikely to change against Atlanta. As discussed in “QB Matchups, Streamer of the Week, Rankings and More,” Atlanta effectively limits opponents to just 62.2 offensive plays per game, the third fewest among NFL teams.

Tampa Bay asks Godwin to run routes on the perimeter at a 69.2% rate, priming him for a long day against Okudah and fellow perimeter cornerback A.J. Terrell (63.6 PFF coverage grade). Terrell’s Week 4 shadow assignment against Jacksonville Jaguars No. 1 wide receiver Calvin Ridley (65.3 PFF receiving grade) points toward a potential one-on-one matchup between Terrell and Evans, though the battle would fall well short of a 100.0% snap rate.

As detailed in the aforementioned quarterback matchups article, “Among 69 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 90 perimeter-coverage snaps [Okduah’s] 33.3% catch rate ranks No. 3 and his 0.56 yards allowed per coverage snap rank No. 5. …Terrell’s 0.84 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks No. 18 and his 1.7% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks No. 17.”

The matchup renders Godwin just a PPR WR4.

WR Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals vs. CB Tre Brown, Seattle Seahawks

Seattle’s secondary recently played at full strength for the first time this season, limiting Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (66.5 PFF passing grade) to just 185 passing yards, two touchdowns and one interception in Week 6. Arizona rookie wide receiver Michael Wilson (71.1 PFF receiving grade) should be left out of Week 7 lineups.

FanDuel implies Arizona to score just 18.5 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Arizona a 0.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating.

Wilson runs routes at a 31.5% wide-left rate, 28.3% slot rate and a 40.2% wide-right rate. Seattle's No. 2 cornerback Tre Brown (83.2 PFF coverage grade) will be his primary coverage defender but Wilson will take ample snaps against No. 1 cornerback Tariq Woolen (64.7 PFF coverage grade), slot cornerback Devon Witherspoon (76.6 PFF coverage grade) and safety/slot defensive back Jamal Adams (68.5 PFF coverage grade).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Wilson a poor 21.8 receiving matchup advantage rating against Brown.

Brown produced a 0.0% catch rate allowed against Cincinnati Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase (86.1 PFF receiving grade) and Tee Higgins (56.2 PFF receiving grade) on a combined 16 snaps. Adams impressively limited Cincinnati slot receivers to a 50.0% catch rate and 0.71 yards per coverage snap.

Among 64 NFL perimeter cornerbacks with at least 50 coverage snaps, Woolen’s 1.39 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks 12th and his 1.5% explosive pass plays allowed rate ranks fifth.

Witherspoon is emerging as an elite slot cornerback. Among 38 NFL slot cornerbacks with at least 25 slot coverage snaps, he ranks top 10 across the board in targeted rate (15.6%, ninth), catch rate allowed (60.0%, sixth), yards allowed per coverage snap (0.53, second) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (0.0%, tied for first).

Wilson succeeded (26.6 PPR points, WR6) in his Week 4 featured role (20.7% first-read target rate) but has since been scaled back to just a 10.9% first-read target rate in Weeks 5-6.

Wilson’s inconsistent usage bodes poorly for this matchup.

WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos vs. CB Rasul Douglas, Green Bay Packers

Denver X-wide receiver Courtland Sutton (69.3 PFF offense grade) continues to underwhelm while electric rookie Marvin Mims Jr. (78.5 PFF receiving grade) looms behind him. Sutton faces Green Bay’s now-healthy perimeter cornerback tandem, Rasul Douglas (83.7 PFF defense grade) and Jaire Alexander (66.3 PFF coverage grade). Sutton is not startable in 12-team leagues.

FanDuel implies Denver to score 21.75 points.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Sutton to face Douglas and Alexander on 15 receiving snaps apiece, giving him a poor 11.9 and a below-average 30.6 receiving matchup advantage rating, respectively. Sutton’s 46.8% pre-snap alignment wide-left plurality most closely aligns with Douglas’ 61.5% defensive-right pre-snap alignment rate.

The table below ranks in parentheses Sutton’s receiving data among 65 NFL wide receivers with at least 150 receiving snaps.

The table below ranks in parentheses Douglas’ coverage data among 69 NFL cornerbacks with at least 135 coverage snaps.

Sutton is a PPR WR4 at best in Week 7.