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Week 13 DraftKings Monday Night Football Showdown: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) runs with the ball while Tennessee Titans cornerback Janoris Jenkins (20) defends during the second half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The changing DFS and fantasy football landscape is shifting toward single-game contests. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the biggest is their Showdown Captain Mode format. The format blends the ease of focusing on a single game with the ability to differentiate yourself from the competition by choosing six players.

The biggest wrinkle of the format is the ability to choose one captain (CPT), who costs and is scored at 1.5 times the standard values. The CPT designation opens up another layer of strategy while exponentially increasing the number of possible lineup combinations, which is important for reducing duplicate winners and split prizes. I wrote a primer on playing this format, with details on historical positional trends and salary usage.


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This season, I will analyze all of the NFL’s “island” games (TNF, SNF and MNF) and playoff matchups, utilizing PFF’s weekly projections, current betting lines, and millions of simulated historical combinations to identify the best and worst values for an upcoming matchup.

There are five main components to this Week 13 Showdown slate analysis that you’ll find below:

  • A breakdown of methodology and the most similar historical matchup to Buffalo BillsNew England Patriots as an illustration of the matching process: 2017 Week 16 Detroit LionsCincinnati Bengals, featuring Matthew Stafford as Josh Allen and Andy Dalton playing Mac Jones‘ role.
  • Optimal lineup allocations (CPT and total roster) for both teams are based on the results of similar historical matchups.
  • Comparison of player ownership projections for FLEX and CPT produced by a model trained on 2018-2021 Showdown contest results to optimal allocations.
  • Recent CPT ownership trends are illustrated for both starting lineups.
  • A table showing the most common players on optimal lineups for each player. This allows you to see which other players are commonly found on the same optimal lineups as a player you’re interested in rostering.
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METHODOLOGY

To analyze this specific Showdown slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014 to 2021 and found the closest analogies to this contest according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under and average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I won’t detail every matchup that falls into the top 100 for this game, but for illustration purposes, let’s look at the most similar matchup:

Historical Current
Player Pos Team Player Pos Team
Matthew Stafford QB DET Josh Allen QB BUF
Theo Riddick RB DET Matt Breida RB BUF
Marvin Jones Jr. WR DET Stefon Diggs WR BUF
Eric Ebron TE DET Dawson Knox TE BUF
Andy Dalton QB CIN Mac Jones QB NE
Joe Mixon RB CIN Damien Harris RB NE
A.J. Green WR CIN Kendrick Bourne WR NE
Tyler Kroft TE CIN Hunter Henry TE NE

The spread and over/under are similar in these matchups (Lions -3 43.5 O/U versus this matchup at Bills -3, 41 O/U). All the players aren’t perfect matches, but that’s why we use 100 similar matchups and not just the single most similar.

The optimal roster for that historical matchup, assuming positional salaries equaled what they are for this showdown slate, would have been:

Player Team Position Roster Position Fantasy Pts
Giovani Bernard CIN RB CPT 32.8
Eric Ebron DET TE FLEX 19.3
Randy Bullock CIN K FLEX 16.0
A.J. Green CIN WR FLEX 14.1
Andy Dalton CIN QB FLEX 12.4
Matthew Stafford DET QB FLEX 11.8

 

For this game and 99 other similar matchups, I calculated every possible combination that fits with Showdown rules (one CPT, at least one offensive player from each team) and would fall under the $50K salary threshold, assuming the salaries for the historical similar matchups are the same as those for this contest.

CHOOSING THE RIGHT CAPTAIN

The most unique part of the format, and therefore the biggest opportunity for a competitive advantage, is choosing your CPT. Should you always choose a QB who typically has the highest absolute fantasy scoring? Are defenses and kickers viable options? RB versus WR?

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