Comparing PFF’s fantasy rankings to ADP is a tried and true approach for finding value and fades in 2021 fantasy football drafts. Targeting a select few players at or ahead of ADP allows us to build roster construction around players we have ranked higher than the consensus. Of course, the same goes for fading players we're lower on, allowing our opponents to overpay for them.
My PFF fantasy PPR rankings and tiers are a great place to get a sense of my feelings on certain players. But this article will dive even further into the players I'm higher and lower on than versus their current ADP range on Fantrax and Underdog Fantasy.
VALUE: DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS (MY RANK: QB20 | ADP: QB23-27)
Stop sleeping on Daniel Jones and the New York Giants offense. There is nowhere to go but up after the team passed for just 12 touchdowns last season, tying the New England Patriots for worst in the league. This was the seventh-worst TD output among all NFL teams since 2011.
Still, this historically bad season is unlikely to repeat. Jones threw 24 touchdown passes in only 12 games in 2019 and has a revamped supporting cast that now includes Kenny Golladay, Saquon Barkley, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, Darius Slayton and Kadarius Toney.
Among 25 offenses that have passed for 15 or fewer touchdowns since 2011, 22 (88%) saw their passing touchdowns increase by an average of 83% (10 passing touchdowns) the following season. There's nowhere to go but up here.
Fantasy gamers should be salivating over Jones’ upside. Throughout his brief NFL career, Jones has rarely ever had his full array of offensive personnel available at the same time. Now he has a top-12 set of skill players in the league.
In 10 games played with Barkley, Jones has averaged 23 fantasy points per game. That falls to 14 points her game with his RB1. In five games with Shepard before Jones’ injury in 2020, the Giants QB averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game. That rate fell to 11.2 fantasy points per game without Shepard.
And let’s not overlook the addition of Golladay, who just so happens to lead all wide receivers in fantasy points per touch (2.98) since 2019.
It’s all about chasing upside when selecting quarterbacks in the later rounds — and no quarterback in this range has a higher proven fantasy ceiling than Jones. He’s already shown us the elite upside, having scored 26-plus points four times in 2019. And his rushing ability offers a raised floor compared to what the poor 2020 numbers show. Before his hamstring injury in Week 12, Jones ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards (403) and seventh in rushing attempts (4.5 per game).
Jones' situation isn't without its blemishes, including a questionable offensive coordinator, PFF’s 32nd-ranked offensive line and a brutal two-game schedule to open the year. But that’s all baked into his dirt-cheap ADP. All things being considered, Jones is the perfect late-round quarterback.
FADE: PATRICK MAHOMES II, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (MY RANK: QB1 | ADP: QB1)