- Dallas Goedert‘s 2025 touchdown total may be a mirage: The 31-year-old found the end zone 11 times but has been far less efficient.
- Hunter Henry faces stiffer target competition: With A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs now in New England, Henry may not be thrown the ball as much by Drake Maye.
- Dalton Kincaid hasn't turned into a consistent fantasy option: Kincaid graded out highly but doesn't seem to be a regular end-zone weapon.
Touchdowns can cover up a lot in fantasy football. That is especially true at tight end, where the difference between a weekly starter and a fringe option often comes down to whether a player finds the end zone.
The problem, of course, is that touchdowns are one of the least stable year-to-year fantasy metrics. When a tight end’s value is built more on scoring efficiency than consistent volume, yardage or underlying usage, fantasy managers should be careful about paying for last year’s production.
These three tight ends all delivered useful fantasy moments in 2025, but their touchdown-driven profiles make them risky bets at cost heading into 2026.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Goedert ended as the TE7 in PPR leagues, but that finish looks a lot shakier once his touchdown total is put into context.
Goedert produced 591 receiving yards, which ranked just 14th among tight ends. That put him behind both George Kittle and Brock Bowers, despite the fact that Kittle missed six games and Bowers missed five. Goedert’s fantasy value was driven largely by his 11 touchdowns, which tied Trey McBride for the most at the position.
That level of scoring was also a major outlier for Goedert. His 11 touchdowns in 2025 were more than he scored over the previous three seasons combined, when he totaled eight. Betting on that kind of touchdown production to repeat is dangerous, especially when the rest of the profile does not point to an ascending player.
Goedert is also showing signs of decline. His 1.37 yards per route run in 2025 was the second-lowest mark of his career. His 66.8 PFF grade was a slight improvement from his 65.7 mark in 2024, but it remained a considerable step down from his career-best 88.9 grade in 2021 and his 73.3 grade in 2023.
The Eagles also reshaped their receiving corps this offseason. Philadelphia traded A.J. Brown, added Makai Lemon in the draft and acquired Dontayvion Wicks from the Green Bay Packers. Goedert now has more competition for targets, and he also has others vying for his own snaps after the Eagles selected Eli Stowers with the 54th overall pick. Stowers is expected to be the long-term answer at the tight end position, which could push Goedert into a reduced role sooner rather than later.
Goedert was a fantasy TE1 in 2025, but his production was heavily tied to an unsustainable touchdown spike. With declining efficiency, added target options and a potential successor already on the roster, he profiles as a tight end likely to tumble down the fantasy rankings in 2026.
Hunter Henry, New England Patriots
Henry finished as the TE9 in 2025, which marked an impressive season for the veteran tight end. He scored seven touchdowns, the third-highest single-season total of his career, while also setting a career high with 768 receiving yards. His 80.4 PFF receiving grade was also the third-best mark of his pro tenure.
Henry remains a very good real-life tight end, and his 2025 season should not be dismissed. The issue is whether fantasy managers should expect him to repeat that production in 2026.
The Patriots added serious firepower this offseason. A.J. Brown arrived in New England and immediately projects to dominate the target share. The team also signed Romeo Doubs to a significant free-agent contract after he left Green Bay. Those additions dramatically change the target environment around Henry.
In 2025, Henry benefited from being one of the most trusted receiving options in the Patriots’ offense. That path is much more crowded now. Brown is the clear focal point of the passing game, while Doubs gives New England another established wide receiver who can command looks from Drake Maye
Even if Henry continues to play efficient football, the arrival of Brown and Doubs makes it much harder to project the same combination of volume, red-zone usage and touchdown opportunity.
Henry should remain valuable to the Patriots as a reliable veteran presence, but fantasy managers should separate real-life value from fantasy value. After a TE9 finish, he is a prime candidate to take a step back in 2026.
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Kincaid concluded as the TE19 in 2025, which was already a disappointing result for a player viewed as an explosive pass-catching option in a Buffalo Bills offense that needed a primary weapon to emerge for Josh Allen.
His fantasy finish would have looked even worse without his five touchdowns. Three of those scores came within the first month of the season, and his overall yardage total failed to inspire much confidence. Kincaid finished with 571 receiving yards, one fewer than Cade Otton — who is not known for his receiving chops.
There are still reasons to believe in Kincaid as a talent. He earned an 81.9 PFF receiving grade in 2025, by far the best mark of his career. He also set career highs with 14.6 yards per catch and 2.79 yards per route run. Those are strong efficiency numbers, and they show that Kincaid can be dangerous when given opportunities.
The problem is that efficiency does not always equal fantasy reliability. Kincaid may be settling into more of an explosive seam-stretching role than a true volume-based fantasy profile. That can make him worthwhile to the Bills while still leaving fantasy managers frustrated on a weekly basis.
He also did not dominate high-value looks near the goal line. Kincaid saw just 11 red-zone targets last season, tied for 26th among qualifying tight ends. Meanwhile, teammate Dawson Knox led the Buffalo tight end room with 17.
The Bills also traded for D.J. Moore this offseason to address their need for an alpha receiver. That move gives Allen a proven wide receiver target and likely pushes Kincaid further away from the type of consistent volume fantasy managers were hoping for when he entered the league.
With James Cook and Allen also heavily involved in the run game, it is fair to question whether Kincaid will get enough big-time opportunities to make a major fantasy leap.
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