2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: Tyreek Hill remains a safe early pick

2M1HPM0 Inglewood, California, USA. 11th Dec, 2022. Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill (10) carries the ball for a touchdown after recovering a fumble during the first half of an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers in Inglewood, California. Mandatory Photo Credit : Charles Baus/CSM/Alamy Live News

Tyreek Hill has been an elite fantasy receiver: Hill has the third-most receiving yards, touchdowns, and PPR points for wide receivers over the last three seasons.

Tua Tagovailoa’s health will be a key for Hill: Tagovailoa missed five games with multiple concussions over the 2022 season, which hurt Hill’s production.

The only thing stopping Hill’s production is the Miami Dolphins: Hill didn’t run as many routes as other elite receivers due to the Dolphins' wide receiver rotation, and that’s unlikely to change this season.

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The fantasy football outlook series takes an in-depth look at a single player’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season.

Want to know where you should draft Tyreek Hill? Click here for Nathan Jahnke's top 300 fantasy football rankings

Last updated: 7:15 a.m. Monday, July 10

Player Outlook

Hill was the most efficient wide receiver in fantasy football last season, and he can build on his success in 2023.

  • Hill produced a 31.3% target rate, leading to a catch on 22.3% of his routes. Those both ranked first out of 73 wide receivers with at least 345 routes last season.
  • All of those receptions helped him average just more than 100 receiving yards per game, which ranked second best among wide receivers.
  • This allowed Hill to lead all wide receivers in fantasy points per route, regardless of the scoring system.
  • The one low spot for him statistically was touchdowns; he caught seven, tying him for 12th.
  • Touchdowns typically haven’t been a problem for Hill, and he could have more next season. His 0.65 receiving touchdowns per game over the past five seasons ranks second best for wide receivers with at least 40 games.
  • Hill was one of the best deep threats in NFL history while he was with the Kansas City Chiefs, and he remained an excellent deep option in Miami.
  • His 2.2 deep targets, 1.1 deep receptions and 39.4 deep receiving yards per game were all the most for wide receivers last season.
  • Hill averaged 2.235 targets on deep passes per game last year, which is tied for first out of 143 wide receivers with at least 10 games since 2022.

Competition for Touches

The Dolphins made some minor changes to their offense which shouldn’t have a major impact on Hill.

  • Jaylen Waddle was Hill’s biggest competition for touches last season, and that will remain true this season. But they proved they can coexist.
  • Waddle’s 0.49 receiving fantasy points per route run in PPR formats ranked eighth last season.
  • He averaged a ridiculous 18.1 yards per reception thanks to 72.0% of his receptions going for at least 10 yards. Those statistics both ranked first among wide receivers with at least 345 routes last season.
  • Miami lost its third and fourth leaders in routes run and targets this offseason. Wide receiver Trent Sherfield and tight end Mike Gesicki both left for division rivals.
  • The Dolphins added wide receivers Braxton Berrios and Chosen Anderson. Both fit the mold of players who will be asked to make catches, and then make a play.
  • Berrios is averaging 0.92 yards after the catch per route run over the past three seasons, which ranks 10th out of 130 wide receivers with at least 460 receiving pass routes in the span.
  • Anderson brings 2.374 receiving yards after contact per reception, which ranks 15th out of 63 wide receivers with at least 1480 receiving pass routes over the past five seasons.
  • The biggest concern for Hill’s fantasy potential is how the Dolphins rotate their wide receivers. Hill played every game in 2022 but ranked only 32nd in number of routes run.
  • Hill was on the field for just 76.1% of offensive snaps. That included 84.2% of pass plays and 59.4% of run plays.
  • For comparison, Justin Jefferson was on the field for 94.4% of the Minnesota Vikings’ pass plays and Ja’Marr Chase was on the field for 98.8% of the Cincinnati Bengals’ pass plays in games for which he was healthy.
  • This helped Hill stay efficient because he was more rested compared to other elite wide receivers.
  • This makes it less likely he sees significant regression in his quality of play, but it also puts a ceiling on his potential.
  • Given that the Dolphins limited Jaylen Waddle’s playing time in a similar way and added two veteran receivers, it seems unlikely the team changes its philosophy.

Impact of Teammates

Hill’s production will partially rely on Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy all season.

  • Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks in passing yards per attempt (8.9), touchdowns per completions (0.97) and fantasy points per attempt (0.585) in 2022.
  • If quarterbacks were judged only by passing for fantasy points, he would be a clear top-10 option.
  • Whenever Tagovailoa missed time last season, it hurt Hill’s production.
  • He still produced a high targets-per-route-run figure, at 27.0%, but his yards per route run fell to 2.08 and he didn’t score a touchdown in the five games Tagovailoa missed, including the playoffs.
  • In comparison, his targets per route figure with Tagovailoa was 33.2% with 3.51 yards per route run.
  • Miami made a change at backup quarterback by replacing Teddy Bridgewater with Mike White.
  • It’s worth noting Bridgewater has a 74.6 PFF overall grade over the past two seasons compared to White's 57.4 mark.
  • 2022 seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson played 211 snaps last season and earned a 58.6 overall grade.

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Bottom Line

Hill is a relatively safe first-round option in most league formats.

  • How the Dolphins use Hill and their other receivers will limit Hill’s upside. That might only stop him from being WR1. His talent should propel him to another top-10 season regardless.
  • Injuries to Tua Tagovailoa or to Hill himself might be the only things that could stop Hill from reaching those heights.

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