• Why I love T.J. Edwards for 2023: Edwards heads to a new team this season and while he isn’t often drafted this way in IDP fantasy football leagues, he should be the top Chicago Bears linebacker to target this season.
• Breakout time for Kyle Hamilton: The Baltimore Ravens’ 2022 first-round pick is primed for a bigger role in 2023 that should lead to ideal IDP production for the position.
• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!
Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
The fantasy season can be a grueling journey of avoiding inefficiencies and injuries en route to an eventual championship, so it’s often difficult to enjoy our favorite players while they’re grinding away fantasy points for us on a weekly basis.
With that in mind, this may be the last chance we get before Week 1 to be entirely positive about our most rostered players for the year, so listed below are players that I have ranked higher than consensus, and are also among the most rostered players on my many fantasy rosters.
LB T.J. Edwards, Chicago Bears
My Rank: LB5
- Edwards landed on a new team this offseason, going from Philadelphia to Chicago, but is expected to continue in an every-down role that should be prosperous for IDP.
- Tremaine Edmunds was the bigger linebacker signed by the Bears this offseason and boasts former first-round draft capital while signing the larger contract as well.
- However, Edwards has been the more effective IDP since he became an every-down starter in the middle of the 2021 season.
- Edwards has finished among the top-five players at his position in tackles versus expected in each of the past two seasons and has been one of the most consistent IDP producers every week that he’s in the lineup.
- He has also consistently improved his overall game, recently posting a career-high 84.8 overall grade and a 79.7 coverage grade in 2022.
- Edwards should once again be in a great position to produce consistently strong production in Chicago, as he’s been among the best linebackers in the league at being first to the ball, earning an 11.8% first contact rate (16th).
- Edwards is often the second Bears linebacker drafted in IDP drafts this offseason, which just makes him an even better value for those who are able to get him later than Edmunds.
- Edwards’ history of strong production and ability to put up numbers that push for his position lead make him a strong candidate for another great season on a new team in 2023.
LB Denzel Perryman, Houston Texans
My rank: LB29
- Perryman has been flying under the radar in IDP drafts this season, and the only reason he doesn’t come in ranked higher than LB29 in my rankings is that you can draft him outside of the top 30 IDP linebackers consistently.
- Perryman played just 555 defensive snaps in 2022, as missed time caused him to start the year as the Raiders’ LB2 behind Divine Deablo.
- That 2022 Las Vegas Raiders’ defense under Patrick Graham was also much different than what he played in during the 2021 season, when he finished sixth in the NFL in total tackles.
- Not only was Perryman not playing the every-down role needed for high-end IDP production, but when he was on the field, he was also spending more time rushing that passer than he ever had in his career (66 pass-rush attempts), which hindered his overall tackle production.
- Despite the poor scheme fit, there were still plenty of hints that Perryman was still one of the best tacklers in the NFL.
- Perryman ranked top-10 at his position in both first contact rate (12.5%) and amount of tackles that went for a loss or no gain (2.4%).
- Perryman heads to a new defense this year in Houston, led by former linebacker-turned-head coach DeMeco Ryans, to play in a scheme that should be much better suited for his talent and IDP production.
- Perryman appears locked in as a starting linebacker in 2023, which should create a near-every-down role in what is expected to be one of the most tackle-friendly defenses for linebackers.
- Should Perryman maintain an every-down role this season, he should have no problem getting back in league-leading territory for tackles in 2023.
Honorable mentions (LB): Dre Greenlaw (LB7), Ernest Jones (LB6), De’Vondre Campbell (LB13), Jamin Davis (LB23)
EDGE Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
My rank: ED9
- Allen was my top darkhorse pick to finish as the leading scorer for his position this season, as he is often not drafted inside the top 10 at his position despite checking all the right boxes to do so.
- Allen doesn’t have the history of high-end sack production that IDP managers are looking for when drafting their first player at the position, but it’s important to keep in mind that sack totals are wildly unstable year-to-year, so focusing on the metrics that create sacks are much more important as a predictive measure.
- Allen has just one (of four) seasons with double-digit sacks, so he gets ignored among the top edge defenders drafted a lot of the time, but all of his pass-rush metrics point toward him being a much better rusher than his sack totals would suggest.
- In 2022, Allen set a new career-high in pass-rush grade (79.4), win rate (17.5%) and pressure rate (14.8%) — all much more stable numbers to rely on than sacks.
- He has also seen his playing time increase every year that he’s been in the league, recently playing 77% of the team’s defensive snaps, which isn’t expected to change in 2023.
- As a result of being on the field so often, Allen has also created a nice production floor for himself, producing 129 total tackles over the last two seasons, which ranks inside the top five at his position.
- There are a number of players who are in for positive regression in terms of sack totals, including Jaelan Phillips, and Allen certainly fits that bill as well.
- Allen should continue to be a reliable weekly starting IDP with more upside than fantasy managers may realize.
DT Javon Hargrave, San Francisco 49ers
My rank: DT2
- For a player who has proven to be among the best pass-rushers at his position over the last few years, he continues to be ignored in a lot of drafts among the rest of the defensive tackles, often getting drafted outside the top five to eight players at his position.
- For IDP managers playing in DT-required formats that are watching Aaron Donald, Christian Wilkins, Quinnen Williams and others fly off the board, Hargrave has been a safe fall-back plan with as much upside as any of them.
- In 2022, Hargrave earned the third-highest pass-rush grade at his position (90.8) while posting 11 total sacks, 16 QB hits and 60 total tackles.
- In 2021, he earned the second-highest pass-rush grade (91.5) in the league, which led to 7.5 total sacks and 63 total tackles.
- Hargrave heads to a new team in San Francisco, which just paid him a significant amount of money this offseason, so the 49ers are going to plan on getting their money’s worth by leaning on him to be the top player on the interior of the defensive line.
- Hargrave should push for double-digit sacks in 2023 once again, which isn’t something that many defensive interior players are in the running for, so that alone should make him a highly-coveted IDP defensive tackle.
- He’s a great DT1 to target in drafts that fantasy managers won’t have to spend high draft capital on.
Honorable mentions (DL): Jaelan Phillips (ED7), Za’Darius Smith (ED14), Kwity Paye (ED29), Odafe Oweh (ED31), Leonard Williams (DT12), Christian Barmore (DT19)
S Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens
My rank: S2
- Hamilton played a limited role as a rookie, mostly designated to the slot in sub-packages while Marcus Williams and Chuck Clark held down the starting safety roles.
- While playing just 53% of the team’s defensive snaps in 2022, Hamilton still managed 62 total tackles and posted some of the top grades at his position, including an 82.3 overall grade (fifth).
- With Chuck Clark’s departure, Hamilton is expected to step into a starting role in 2023 and get the ideal IDP usage to deliver elite fantasy production thanks to his high-end tackling and play-making abilities.
- Hamilton offers everything IDP managers could ask for when it comes to potential usage, as he should be the clear option to rotate down toward the line of scrimmage, get the occasional pass-rush attempts and always be on the field to optimize his opportunities, not unlike consensus S1 Derwin James.
- Hamilton also earned a top-10 mark in first contact rate (9.85%) last season, showcasing his nose for the ball and the necessary instincts to be a consistently high tackler on a weekly basis.
- Hamilton should have the potential to add sacks and other big plays as well this season on a larger workload as he checks all the boxes for a potential top-five IDP safety in 2023.
S Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns
My rank: S8
- Delpit’s first year as a full-time NFL starter resulted in 105 total tackles in 2022, which was a top-10 mark among safeties.
- Delpit was able to accomplish this as the primary safety to rotate toward the line of scrimmage and play in the box for the Browns last season and should do so once again in 2023.
- The good thing about Jim Schwartz coming over as the Browns’ new defensive coordinator is that when we last saw Schwartz’s defense in the NFL (2021), he deployed one of the highest rates of single-high coverages in the league (66.4%), which favors Delpit’s chances of playing more box snaps in 2023.
- With the Browns having a lot of instability at the linebacker position again this season, Delpit figures to support that position a lot this coming season which should allow him to once again clear triple-digit tackles.
- He has been a great value going well after a large chunk of safeties drafted in IDP leagues this year and should have no problem filling a starting spot on fantasy rosters on a weekly basis.
Honorable mentions (DB): Kamren Curl (S3), Kyle Dugger (S6), Ryan Neal (S10), Julian Blackmon (S18), Nate Hobbs (CB2), Kyler Gordon (CB5)
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.