- The underrated Josh Allen: The Jacksonville Jaguars’ top edge defender checks all the boxes to push for EDGE1 this coming season.
- Don’t forget about Dre: San Francisco 49ers’ linebacker Dre Greenlaw doesn’t get the recognition of his partner Fred Warner but has just as good of a shot to be LB1 this season.
- A top-three option in my ranks going outside the top-10 at his position: Washington Commanders safety Kamren Curl has S1 potential for 2023 but can be had much later in drafts.
Estimated reading time: 13 minutes
Each year, there are players that come out of nowhere to deliver huge fantasy seasons, especially in IDP leagues given the relative instability of NFL defenses. With that in mind, let’s focus on some of the darkhorse options that have the best shot to be the next IDPs to surprise fantasy managers in 2023.
These darkhorse options are all going outside of the top 10 at their position according to ADP collected by The IDP Show from IDP-only drafts that have been taking place regularly throughout this entire offseason.
IDP scoring (PFF-preferred):
| Position | Solo TKLs | Assists | Sacks | TFLs | QB Hits | PBUs |
| DE/DI | 2.5 | 1.25 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| LB | 1.5 | 0.75 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| CB/S | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Edge defender
Before locking in our choice for the dark horse EDGE1 for 2023, it’s going to be important to look back at the past couple of seasons to see the anatomy of what made up each of the past EDGE1 finishers in IDP.
| Season | ED1 | Points per game | Sacks | Tackles | QB hits |
| 2022 | Maxx Crosby | 18.8 | 12.5 | 88 | 35 |
| 2021 | T.J. Watt | 23.1 | 22.5 | 64 | 39 |
- Both Watt and Crosby hit double-digit sacks and over 35 QB hits, putting them among the league's most productive pass-rushers. Watt, specifically, had an exceptional 2021 season in converting sacks, which goes a very long way for fantasy points.
- Tackle production was also especially important with both players ranking inside the top 10 at their position in total tackles, with Crosby leading the position in 2022.
| Season | ED1 | Pass-rush grade | Pressure rate | Win rate |
| 2022 | Maxx Crosby | 83.5 | 13.2% | 15.6% |
| 2021 | T.J. Watt | 90.6 | 15.8% | 15.8% |
- To become the most productive pass rushers in the league, the underlying pass-rush metrics have to be exceptional for the position as well.
- Both players finished inside the top 10 in PFF pass-rush grade in their EDGE1 seasons.
- Both were well above average in terms of pressure rate and win rate in each season as well (min. 250 pass-rush snaps).
2023 Darkhorse EDGE1: Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
Already have a subscription? Log In
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.