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Hermsmeyer: Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Week 14

Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle (17) reacts after making a catch during the second quarter against the Houston Texans at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

  • Brown on the Milly Maker winning lineup: A.J. Brown was the skeleton key in Week 13 for cashing in the Milly Maker.
  • McLaurin's big week: Terry “F1” McLaurin had a spike game, going off for 24.5 points.
  • Waddle returns to the buy-low candidate list: Jaylen Waddle tops the list this week.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes


Week 13 Review

Week 13 was dominated by Philadelphia Eagles receivers. A.J. Brown topped the buy low last week after a string of weeks in which the Eagles went run-heavy, which made some analysts start to worry about how the loss of tight end Dallas Goedert may have neutered their air attack. The model still pointed toward a spike game, and even the revenge game narrative was in play, but Brown ended up being rostered more than 20 percentage points less than last week’s hero, Garrett Wilson. Those who moved off the chalk and did roster Brown made money, as the top-four cashing lineups in the Milly Maker all had him in their lineup. This marks the eighth time in 12 runs in 2022 that a player on the buy low ended up in a winning lineup.

Brown’s teammate DeVonta Smith also had a great outing (and was also on the Milly-winning lineup) while Terry McLaurin came through like a boss.

Here are the full results from Week 13, with players who beat their consensus projections in bold:  

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