Comparing PFF’s fantasy rankings to average draft position (ADP) is a tried and true approach for identifying fades in 2021 fantasy football drafts. Avoiding a select few players at inflated ADPs ensures you are not overinvesting in specific players. You want your opponents to overpay, so you can continue to scoop up value as the draft progresses.
My PFF fantasy PPR rankings and tiers are a great place to get a sense of my feelings on certain players, as it dives into the players I'm lower on versus their current ADP in the first 10 rounds of 12-team fantasy drafts. Pair this with my newly released perfect draft strategy guide 2.0 to build a juggernaut fantasy squad.
Click here for more PFF tools:
Fantasy Draft Kit | PFF Betting Dashboard | PFF Fantasy Rankings
PFF Fantasy Projections | NFL Premium Stats | Win Totals Tracker
ROUND 1
RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans | ADP 4, MY RANK 7
Henry’s 2020 campaign was epic — 20.9 fantasy points per game (third), 17.3 expected fantasy points per game (sixth) and over 2,000 yards rushing yards — but it seems extremely unlikely he will be able to duplicate his efforts in 2021.
The concern with him is that he could fall victim to touchdown regression — Henry scored 10 rushing touchdowns over expectation in his last two seasons.
And, of course, even a back as great as Henry is unlikely to rip off another 2,000-yard season. Of the seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards, the best fantasy finish the following season was RB5. Five finished as top-12 running backs, leaving just two that failed to return RB1 status.
Henry’s unicorn season was in 2020 and chasing that with a top-five selection will leave some managers with regret when he fails to accomplish what he did a season ago. Everything went his way, and he still only finished as the RB3 — leaving little margin for error in 2021.
Already have a subscription? Log In
DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32
Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.