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Top fades in fantasy football rankings vs. ADP

Dec 13, 2020; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry (22) runs the ball past Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Sidney Jones (35) during the second quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Comparing PFF’s fantasy rankings to average draft position (ADP) is a tried and true approach for identifying fades in 2021 fantasy football drafts. Avoiding a select few players at inflated ADPs ensures you are not overinvesting in specific players. You want your opponents to overpay, so you can continue to scoop up value as the draft progresses.

My PFF fantasy PPR rankings and tiers are a great place to get a sense of my feelings on certain players, as it dives into the players I'm lower on versus their current ADP in the first 10 rounds of 12-team fantasy drafts. Pair this with my newly released perfect draft strategy guide 2.0 to build a juggernaut fantasy squad.

 


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ROUND 1

RB Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans | ADP 4, MY RANK 7

Henry’s 2020 campaign was epic — 20.9 fantasy points per game (third), 17.3 expected fantasy points per game (sixth) and over 2,000 yards rushing yards — but it seems extremely unlikely he will be able to duplicate his efforts in 2021.  

The concern with him is that he could fall victim to touchdown regression — Henry scored 10 rushing touchdowns over expectation in his last two seasons.

And, of course, even a back as great as Henry is unlikely to rip off another 2,000-yard season. Of the seven running backs who have rushed for 2,000 yards, the best fantasy finish the following season was RB5. Five finished as top-12 running backs, leaving just two that failed to return RB1 status.

Henry’s unicorn season was in 2020 and chasing that with a top-five selection will leave some managers with regret when he fails to accomplish what he did a season ago. Everything went his way, and he still only finished as the RB3  — leaving little margin for error in 2021. 

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