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DFS data dive: The highest fantasy football ceilings of Week 4

Seattle, Washington, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Marcus Mariota (1) passes against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the slate's highest scorer. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.

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QUARTERBACKS

Highest % Player Team Opponent DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
9.8 Lamar Jackson BLT BUF 22.7 8,300 21.3 8,800
9.7 Josh Allen BUF BLT 27.3 8,400 25.3 8,900
8.1 Jalen Hurts PHI JAX 25.2 8,200 23.6 8,600
6.3 Justin Herbert LAC HST 24.3 7,100 22.7 8,000
5.6 Jacoby Brissett CLV ATL 20.2 5,500 19.0 6,800
5.5 Aaron Rodgers GB NE 22.7 6,300 21.3 7,400
5.4 Marcus Mariota ATL CLV 19.9 5,600 18.4 7,300
5.3 Jared Goff DET SEA 19.6 5,900 18.5 7,600
4.7 Zach Wilson NYJ PIT 14.8 5,200 13.9 6,500
4.7 Derek Carr LV DEN 19.3 5,800 17.8 7,200
4.1 Matt Ryan IND TEN 19.0 5,600 17.5 6,700
4.0 Geno Smith SEA DET 20.1 5,400 18.5 6,600
3.9 Ryan Tannehill TEN IND 18.9 5,500 17.9 6,800
3.3 Daniel Jones NYG CHI 19.8 5,400 18.6 7,000
3.0 Russell Wilson DEN LV 18.5 6,700 17.5 7,100
2.8 Kyler Murray ARZ CAR 21.4 7,600 20.3 7,800
2.7 Davis Mills HST LAC 18.9 5,000 17.4 6,400
2.7 Carson Wentz WAS DAL 16.2 6,000 15.1 6,900
2.7 Mitchell Trubisky PIT NYJ 19.3 5,100 18.2 6,500
2.1 Baker Mayfield CAR ARZ 16.7 5,200 15.6 6,600
2.0 Justin Fields CHI NYG 16.4 5,300 15.4 6,700
1.8 Dak Prescott DAL WAS 20.1 6,400 18.7 7,000
1.6 Trevor Lawrence JAX PHI 16.9 5,700 15.8 7,500
0.5 Brian Hoyer NE GB 14.5 5,100 13.5 6,300

RUNNING BACKS

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