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DFS Data Dive: Hunting Week 4's best stacks

Seattle, Washington, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) runs for yards after the catch against the Seattle Seahawks during the first quarter at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

  • High-upside RB-DST stack for Week 2: Stacking lower-cost running backs — such as Khalil Herbert and Jamaal Williams — with their respective defenses is the play this week.
  • Best Value Week 2 DFS three-player stack: The QB-WR-TE stack to own this week is adding Kyle Pitts to the Mariota-London combination detailed above.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below are harnessing the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have actually happened over the past several years and thereby points to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.

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QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
ATL CLV 11.3 Marcus Mariota QB 19.9 5,600 18.4 7,300
ATL CLV 11.3 Drake London WR 14.5 6,100 11.3 6,300
BLT BUF 9.7 Lamar Jackson QB 22.7 8,300 21.3 8,800
BLT BUF 9.7 Rashod Bateman WR 11.6 5,600 9.2 6,600
GB NE 7.8 Aaron Rodgers QB 22.7 6,300 21.3 7,400
GB NE 7.8 Allen Lazard WR 13.5 6,200 10.9 6,000
BUF BLT 7.4 Josh Allen QB 27.3 8,400 25.3 8,900
BUF BLT 7.4 Stefon Diggs WR 19.4 8,400 15.2 8,700
NYJ PIT 6.4 Zach Wilson QB 14.8 5,200 13.9 6,500
NYJ PIT 6.4 Garrett Wilson WR 9.6 5,400 7.7 6,100
LV DEN 6.2 Derek Carr QB 19.3 5,800 17.8 7,200
LV DEN 6.2 Davante Adams WR 17.7 8,300 13.8 7,900
DET SEA 4.8 Jared Goff QB 19.6 5,900 18.5 7,600
DET SEA 4.8 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 16.7 7,700 13.0 8,000
PHI JAX 4.6 Jalen Hurts QB 25.2 8,200 23.6 8,600
PHI JAX 4.6 A.J. Brown WR 16.7 7,400 13.4 8,300
LAC HST 4.0 Justin Herbert QB 24.3 7,100 22.7 8,000
LAC HST 4.0 Keenan Allen WR 12.9 6,500 10.1 7,300
DAL WAS 4.0 Dak Prescott QB 20.1 6,400 18.7 7,000
DAL WAS 4.0 CeeDee Lamb WR 16.1 6,700 12.9 6,800
SEA DET 3.6 Geno Smith QB 20.1 5,400 18.5 6,600
SEA DET 3.6 D.K. Metcalf WR 17.5 6,800 13.9 7,100
WAS DAL 3.5 Carson Wentz QB 16.2 6,000 15.1 6,900
WAS DAL 3.5 Curtis Samuel WR 13.2 5,700 10.4 6,200
NYG CHI 3.3 Daniel Jones QB 19.8 5,400 18.6 7,000
NYG CHI 3.3 Richie James Jr. WR 13.1 4,000 10.5 5,500
IND TEN 3.3 Matt Ryan QB 19.0 5,600 17.5 6,700
IND TEN 3.3 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 15.4 7,200 12.1 7,500
ARZ CAR 3.3 Kyler Murray QB 21.4 7,600 20.3 7,800
ARZ CAR 3.3 Marquise Brown WR 14.1 6,900 11.1 7,700
NE GB 3.1 Brian Hoyer QB 14.5 5,100 13.5 6,300
NE GB 3.1 Jakobi Meyers WR 11.0 4,800 8.4 6,000
CHI NYG 3.0 Justin Fields QB 16.4 5,300 15.4 6,700
CHI NYG 3.0 Darnell Mooney WR 10.3 5,000 8.2 5,800
TEN IND 2.6 Ryan Tannehill QB 18.9 5,500 17.9 6,800
TEN IND 2.6 Treylon Burks WR 10.7 4,700 8.6 5,700
PIT NYJ 2.2 Mitchell Trubisky QB 19.3 5,100 18.2 6,500
PIT NYJ 2.2 Diontae Johnson WR 14.4 6,000 11.1 7,000
JAX PHI 2.0 Trevor Lawrence QB 16.9 5,700 15.8 7,500
JAX PHI 2.0 Christian Kirk WR 13.2 6,600 10.5 7,600
CAR ARZ 1.6 Baker Mayfield QB 16.7 5,200 15.6 6,600
CAR ARZ 1.6 D.J. Moore WR 14.5 5,300 11.5 6,100
DEN LV 1.6 Russell Wilson QB 18.5 6,700 17.5 7,100
DEN LV 1.6 Courtland Sutton WR 13.3 6,400 10.6 6,800
CLV ATL 1.5 Jacoby Brissett QB 20.2 5,500 19.0 6,800
CLV ATL 1.5 Amari Cooper WR 14.7 6,300 11.6 7,500
HST LAC 1.2 Davis Mills QB 18.9 5,000 17.4 6,400
HST LAC 1.2 Brandin Cooks WR 18.6 5,800 14.4 6,400

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players

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