• Trade: Minnesota Vikings make a big move to get an extra first-round pick
• The next move: Three teams could partner with the Vikings to trade up even further in the 2024 NFL Draft.
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NFL free agency is where the fun really begins, even from an NFL draft perspective. There’s all sorts of speculation on what teams will do – who will get aggressive, who might trade down, what kind of players they will target — but until we see what unfolds in free agency, it’s just a guessing game.
Now, we have a pretty good idea of what the Minnesota Vikings are doing, and that hint comes in the form of a trade that they made with the Houston Texans after the new league year began. In it, the Vikings sent pick No. 42 in the second round, No. 188 in the sixth round and a second-round pick in 2025 to the Texans for their No. 23 pick in the first round and No. 232 pick in the seventh round.
The Texans get good flexibility for not just this year but obviously next year as well. They now have two second-round picks, a third-round pick and two fourth-round picks this year to continue to build the core of their roster after a strong free agency. That, plus an additional second-round pick in 2025 should help improve the outlook of that draft plan.
Though Minnesota is in a bit of a rebuilding phase after Kirk Cousins‘ departure, there aren’t many who believe this trade will be their last. Instead, this felt like a move from a chess master to set up a bigger move for a checkmate.
Ultimately, I believe the Vikings acquired the No. 23 overall pick to offer a package of first-round picks to either the New England Patriots at No. 3, Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 or Los Angeles Chargers at No. 5 to draft a quarterback this year.
The Patriots should be the primary target. We assume two quarterbacks will already be off the board by the time New England is on the clock, and if you’re Minnesota, you’d want to control as much as possible. Three years ago the 49ers traded up from pick No. 12 to No. 3 (for presumably the third quarterback in the class), giving up that No. 12 pick, a third-round pick and two more first-round picks — one in 2022 and one in 2023. With two first-round picks this year, Minnesota could offer those two to avoid giving up a first-rounder from a future year.
The Cardinals and Chargers will ask for something similar, but I think Minnesota's two first-round picks this year could be enough with another pick or two sprinkled in there. The Cardinals already have an additional first-round pick this year, so they might ask for a 2025 first-rounder anyway, but the Chargers – given that Harbaugh wants to get his guys in there – could be swayed with the two first-rounders and another top-100 pick.
Now, if Minnesota does trade up into the top three picks, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy are the two names I have heard linked with the Vikings. The stand-out trait for both of these quarterbacks (over the likes of Jayden Daniels) is their experience and success throwing over the middle. With a two-year sample size (2022 and 2023), Maye earned a 93.3 PFF passing grade with 110 attempts, six big-time throws and 14 touchdowns between the numbers from 10-20 yards out. McCarthy earned a 92.0 PFF passing grade after attempting 70 passes to that area of the field with two big-time throws and seven touchdowns.
As for the Vikings, not counting passes behind the line of scrimmage, the most passes they attempted last season came over the middle of the field between the numbers from 0-10 yards down the field (167 attempts). The second most came over the middle between the numbers from 10-20 yards (80 attempts). This is an offense that likes to target the middle of opposing defense, which Maye and McCarthy do well.
It was headline-filled free agency week for both contract and draft reasons. From a draft perspective, the Vikings will now be the team we monitor closely to see if they change up the draft order again with a big trade before draft weekend.
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