- The Cowboys face an uphill battle on the ground: The Eagles hold the advantage on both sides of the ball in the rushing department, and now Dallas won't have star edge defender Micah Parsons to help stanch the bleeding.
- Consider a same-game parlay built around Saquon Barkley: The Eagles running back tends to get off to quick starts while handling plenty of volume, giving value to the over on his carries total and the over on his first-quarter rushing yards total.
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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-8) [Total: 47.5]
Game Overview
Football is BACK. To kick off the 2025 NFL season, the Dallas Cowboys head to Lincoln Financial Field to take on the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles in the first of many division matchups in Week 1.
The Eagles hoisted the Lombardi to close out the 2024 campaign and also stood atop the NFL betting landscape with their 14-7 record against the spread, tying for the best cover rate (66.7%) in the league. While that is strong on the surface, context matters in these situations. Philadelphia struggled to cover when favored by a touchdown or more, finishing with a 2-4 record.
To bring these trends full circle, the only team the Eagles covered against when laying seven or more points was the Cowboys — albeit, without Dak Prescott. Still, Dallas struggled to cover spreads regardless of who was under center. Prescott himself went just 3-5 against the spread before going down, with Dallas going on to finish 7-10.
Although the Cowboys should be thrilled to have their franchise quarterback back in action, they do so while waving goodbye to the leader of their defense and one of the best pass rushers in the NFL, Micah Parsons. Even in limited games last season, Parsons was the driving force behind the Cowboys' fourth-ranked team PFF pass-rushing grade (79.1).
To make matters worse, the Cowboys' defense was already among the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The unit tied for 30th in PFF run-defense grade (48.0) and ranked last in EPA per rush allowed in 2024. Needless to say, that is a death sentence against the Eagles.
But it wasn’t just stopping the run that gave Dallas trouble last season. The offense often failed to establish the ground game, placing 31st and 32nd in PFF rushing grade (60.7) and EPA per rush, respectively. While the Cowboys swapped out their backfield personnel, opting to roll with Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue and draft guard Tyler Booker in the first round, the rushing projections don’t appear much improved.
That puts even more pressure on Prescott to carry the load in the passing game, which presents another challenge. The Eagles produced a league-leading 92.8 team PFF coverage grade in 2024. While their defense may be trotting out two new starters in the secondary, they return two of the 10 highest-graded cornerbacks from last season in Cooper DeJean (84.2) and Quinyon Mitchell (78.8), as well as the highest-graded coverage linebacker in the league in Zack Baun (90.9).
Best Bet: Same-Game Parlay (+650)
- Under 47.5 total points (-110)
- Saquon Barkley 20+ carries (+109)
- Saquon Barkley 25+ first-quarter rushing yards (+135)
Given Dallas’ track record in the run game on both sides of the ball, the Eagles will likely have little issue controlling this game on the ground. While the Eagles may be capable of putting up 40 points themselves, they are equally capable of holding this iteration of the Cowboys to seven or fewer, as they did twice last season. In those games, the teams totaled 40 and 48 points, just barely scraping past the over in Week 17.
Barkley and his road-grading offensive line will play their part to control this game on the ground from the opening whistle. Dallas has no answer for that. Barkley is comfortable with that sort of volume, having gone over 20 carries in 13 of his 20 games last season.
Barkley was also explosive in the first quarter down the stretch last season. Across his final eight games, he racked up 25 or more first-quarter yards in six outings, including a massive 109-yard opening frame against the Commanders in Week 16.
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