• QB Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots — 200+ passing yards: The receiving options are a concern for the Patriots, with Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne out, but DeVante Parker returned with a solid game last week. And despite giving up very few points overall, the Steelers defense has given up plenty of receiving yards against a relatively weak schedule.
• WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers — Over 38.5 receiving yards: New England has played Cover 1 on almost 30% of coverage snaps over the last six weeks, one of the highest rates in the league, and George Pickens has earned significantly better PFF receiving grades against Cover 1 than he has against any other type of coverage.
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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes
GAME OVERVIEW
If ever there was a game we could have flexed out of prime time, a showdown between Mitchell Trubisky and Bailey Zappe would be it — but here we are.
Despite going into this game with their backup quarterback, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-point favorites over the 2-10 New England Patriots.
The Patriots are the lowest-scoring team in football. Things have gotten so bad that they have gone 0-3 over a three-game stretch where they've conceded just 26 points.
With running back Rhamondre Stevenson nursing an ankle injury, the Pats are now missing their two best playmakers from this season, as wide receiver Demario Douglas is still trying to recover from a concussion.
The 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers are riding their luck this year and are one of only five teams that have scored less than 200 points, with the other four teams struggling at 4-8 or worse.
Pittsburgh has a points differential of -37, and yet, somehow, they are in playoff contention. The fans were given false hope when the Steelers beat the Bengals and racked up 400 yards of offense for the first time in years a week after offensive coordinator Matt Canada was fired. A week later, they put up just 247 yards of offense and were beaten soundly by the 2-10 Arizona Cardinals.
The total for this game is 29.5… for an NFL game.
QB Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots: 200+ Passing Yards (+270 FanDuel)
The betting market — and likely everyone covering this game — will tell you that this will be an offensive horror show, but I feel like the market is taking too firm a stance on certain players.
Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe is one of them. I am not particularly interested in taking his passing yards line, which is in the 154- to 156-yard range, because there has been a substantial variance in his play at the play-by-play level. I think the range of outcomes is wider than the market gives him credit for. So, I think he has some upside, and there is better value in higher-variance lines than in his baseline numbers.
The receiving options are a concern for the Patriots, with Demario Douglas and Kendrick Bourne out, but DeVante Parker returned with a solid game last week. And despite giving up very few points overall, the Steelers defense has given up plenty of receiving yards against a relatively weak schedule.
I would expect some extra resistance with Minkah Fitzpatrick back on the field, but even with Fitzpatrick playing early in the season, the Steelers still allowed the seventh-most yards per coverage snap.
Rhamondre Stevenson‘s absence can contribute to a larger passing volume, too.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-109 Caesars)
The Patriots' defense is very similar to the Steelers' in that it limits points allowed, but the yardage totals do not match.
Since Week 8, no team in the NFL has allowed more personnel-adjusted yards per coverage snap to opposing outside wide receivers. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both enjoyed 100-plus-yard games against the Pats in Week 8. Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Byron Pringle all recorded 50-plus receiving yards against them in Week 9. Michael Pittman Jr. caught eight passes for 84 yards in Week 10. Jalin Hyatt surpassed 100 yards in Week 12, and Quentin Johnston had the best game of his young career against New England in Week 13, catching five passes for 52 yards.
New England has played Cover 1 on almost 30% of coverage snaps over the last six weeks, one of the highest rates in the league, and George Pickens has earned significantly better PFF receiving grades against Cover 1 than he has against any other type of coverage.
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