NFL News & Analysis

NFL Week 14 Playoff Picture: It's now or never for the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2T9PEC0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks out to his receivers during an NFL football game against the Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Zach Bolinger)

The Buccaneers need a Week 14 win: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 52% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 14 win against the Atlanta Falcons, but their chances will fall to just 8% with a loss.

• The Ravens are out in front in a loaded AFC: The Baltimore Ravens have a 40% chance of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's model.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 14

Current AFC playoff standings
  1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
  2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
  6. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
  7. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
Current NFC playoff standings
  1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
  3. Detroit Lions (9-3)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
  5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
  6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
  7. Green Bay Packers (6-6)

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as three new NFC teams (Lions, Falcons and Packers) to the playoffs.

PFF's power rankings tool includes strength of schedule metrics, projected win totals, playoff and Super Bowl projections and more. Subscribe today to get full access!

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.




Team Chances with win Chances with loss Leverage
Atlanta Falcons 84% 34% 50%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 52% 8% 44%
Cleveland Browns 79% 39% 40%
Seattle Seahawks 59% 22% 37%
Indianapolis Colts 81% 44% 37%
Houston Texans 73% 40% 33%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

Baltimore Ravens 40% Philadelphia Eagles 55%
Miami Dolphins 27% San Francisco 49ers 34%
Kansas City Chiefs 22% Dallas Cowboys 7%
Jacksonville Jaguars 9% Detroit Lions 4%
Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

Here are the chances for each division to pull it off:

North 41% 31%
East 0% 2%
South 24% 0%
West 0% 3%

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

PFF's customizable mock draft simulator gives you the opportunity to be the GM for any team in the 2024 NFL Draft — click here to start drafting!
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit