NFL Betting 101: Creating the Perfect Parlay, including best Week 11 parlay bets

Denver, Colorado, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) carries the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Week 11 anytime TD parlay (+863): Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson and Stefon Diggs: Fields is on fire heading to Hot ‘Lanta's poor defense, while Jackson and Diggs are in prime positions to snap scoring skids.

• Parlays combine multiple legs in one wager, in which each leg must win to return a profit.

Week 11 ATS parlay (+581): Ravens -13 vs CAR, Colts +7 vs PHI, Commanders -3 vs HOU: No faith in Baker Mayfield, but plenty in Jonathan Taylor and Washington's determined ground game against sieve-like run defenses.

Last updated: Nov. 18, 11:30 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 7 mins


Creating the perfect parlay can win a lot of money — even with a small wager. 

In this article, we’ll build excellent parlays readers can wager on every week of the NFL season and continue to explain parlays in detail.


The Green Bay Packers lost Thursday night at home to the Tennessee Titans, kicking off Week 11 of the NFL season, and now we venture into the Sunday slate. We're looking at three parlays using different sportsbooks, focusing on point spreads, anytime touchdowns, and player props. 

Point Spread Parlay

Baltimore Ravens -13 vs Carolina Panthers 

• A Big Spread, But No Trust In Mayfield: P.J. Walker is out this week, and Baker Mayfield is starting. Out on the road, the Panthers will want to run the ball with D'Onta Foreman, but they’ll be met by a solid run defense unit (14th in run defense grade) that allows only 92 rushing yards per game. Mayfield completes just 56.6% of his passes and has a 53.9 passing grade this season. He also has six turnover-worthy plays on 173 attempts. There could be some garbage-time scoring from the Panthers and Mayfield, which could lead to a backdoor cover, but the Ravens should snuff out most of Carolina's best scoring opportunities.

Indianapolis Colts +7 vs Philadelphia Eagles

Colts Run To The Cover: There’s the Jeff Saturday chatter, but the Colts demonstrated the ability to run the ball again in Week 10 with Jonathan Taylor. He had 147 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown. The Eagles have allowed nearly 155 rushing yards per game over their past three games. The Colts are touchdown dogs at home, and if their offensive line can run block the same way it did against the Las Vegas Raiders (four players with grades of 67.3 or higher on starting offensive line) and control the clock, they should keep this one close and cover.

Washington Commanders -3 @ Houston Texans

Heinicke Gets The Nod To Start: Taylor Heinicke is far from an elite starting quarterback (48.2 passing grade and 6.9% turnover-worthy play percentage), but the Commanders are 3-1 with him as the starter. Their only loss was by 3 to the Vikings. Against the Eagles, the Commanders pounded the rock with Brian Robinson Jr., and they should do the same against the Texans, who allow over 180 rushing yards per game and have a run defense grade of 37.6 as a team. The Commanders also have capable pass rushers in Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen to push against the left side of the Texans offensive line. The Texans have scored 20 points just once in their past five games. 

DRAFTKINGS BUILD (+581)

Ravens -13

Colts +7

Commanders -3

Anytime TD Parlay

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears 

• Fields Is Unstoppable: The Falcons have a 60.8 team run defense grade, have allowed over 160 rushing yards per game over their past three games, and 127.6 at home. Justin Fields has a 91.7 rushing grade this season, with five of his six touchdowns over his previous four games. Averaging nearly nine designed runs per game over that span, there’s no indication of Fields slowing down or this offense going away from his elite rushing skillset. 

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns

• Diggs Breaks Touchdown Slump: Stefon Diggs hasn’t scored since Week 8, but in the Week 10 OT thriller against the Minnesota Vikings, he saw 16 targets while Josh Allen battles through his elbow injury. Diggs has commanded double-digit targets in all but three games this year, going over 100 yards in all three games. This week against the Browns, Diggs will match up outside with former first-rounders Denzel Ward (50.5 coverage grade) and Greg Newsome II (62.7 coverage grade). Ward and Newsome II have allowed a 66.7% and a 69.2% reception rate, respectively. They’ve allowed only three touchdowns this season, but the Browns' pass rush may have more trouble than usual getting to Allen, which will magnify the poor play of their corners.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers

• Lacking Weapons, Jackson Runs: At home and nearly a two-touchdown favorite, the Ravens project to be in control of this game, which always bodes well for anyone running the ball. Against the Saints, Lamar Jackson posted a season-high 11 designed runs, totaling 82 yards. Tight end Mark Andrews looks ready to return this week, but he’s only one receiving threat. With the rest of Baltimore's pass-catching corps still ailing, look for Jackson to showcase his rushing ability here and find the endzone for the first time since Week 3. The Panthers cannot stop the run lately, allowing 182 rushing yards per game over their past three. 

DRAFTKINGS BUILD (+863)

Justin Fields TD Scorer (+100)

Stefon Diggs TD Scorer (+105)

Lamar Jackson (+135)

Other Play Prop Parlays

Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers

• Mayfield’s Gotta Throw One… Right?!: The Panthers are close to two-touchdown underdogs on the road against the Ravens, who rank 16th in coverage grade and allow close to 270 passing yards per game at home. Their defense is much better equipped against the run, the Panthers’ main component of their offense. For Mayfield, he has a history against the Ravens from his years with the Browns, and he has receivers in D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall, both more than competent to catch at least one touchdown in garbage time. 

New Orleans Saints vs. Los Angeles Rams

• Allen Robinson’s the New No. 1: Cooper Kupp was placed this week on injured reserve, and now it’s time for Allen Robinson to step up. It’s been a rough go this season for Robinson. Still, he’s had a slight uptick in involvement over the past few weeks, averaging six targets over his previous three games. The Rams take on the Saints this week, who are still without cornerback Marshon Lattimore. Robinson will match up against Paulson Adebo (35.7 coverage grade) and Alontae Taylor (43.3 coverage grade). Robinson profiles more as a No. 1 option than Van Jefferson or Ben Skowronek

Indianapolis Colts vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• Taylor Is Heating Up: The Eagles signed Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh ahead of this matchup. These are valuable pieces to help assist in the run game, which will be needed against the Colts and Jonathan Taylor. It’s been a less-than-stellar year for Taylor, but over his past three games, he’s averaged no less than 4.8 yards per carry and went for nearly seven per tote against the Raiders. The key to beating the Eagles is running the ball and controlling the clock. Based on volume alone, Taylor should easily clear 85.5 rushing yards. 

BETMGM BUILD (+506)

• Baker Mayfield o0.5 Passing TDs (-130)

• Allen Robinson o48.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

• Jonathan Taylor o85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)


What Is A Parlay?

A parlay is a type of sports bet where one wagers on multiple games on one ticket. A bettor needs each game, or leg, in the parlay to result in a win for the parlay wager to be successful. A parlay requires a minimum of two legs but can go as high as 15 or more, depending on the online sportsbook. 

It’s hard enough to win a single bet, so with a parlay and multiple legs, bettors receive odds that not only take into account the individual legs’ odds, they account for the additional risk for each leg added. 

Here’s an example of a parlay, courtesy of BetMGM: 

• Buccaneers -13 (-105)

• Jets +1 (-110)

• Patriots -8 (-110)

While each leg has -110 odds, the parlay odds on this are +568. 

So, at +568, if you wager $100 on this parlay and win, you’ll receive $568 in profit. 

To show the value, let’s say you had a budget of $100 and wagered $33 each on the three legs above. 

If you did this, you’d win $33 on each -110 leg and $34.43 on the -105 leg, resulting in just over $100 in profit instead of the $611. 

Same Game Parlays

Since sports betting became possible in May 2018, when the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act was overturned, sportsbooks have found ways to get creative to attract new players. Among the more popular attractions are Same Game Parlays, where you can parlay together multiple bets from a single game. 

In the past, this wasn’t possible. Still, this type of wager allows players to have more upside, especially as correlated parlays, hopefully. 

Here’s an example of a Same Game Parlay, using the Buccaneers at Panthers game from Week 7 of the 2022-23 NFL season:

• Buccaneers -12.5 (-120)

• Chris Godwin Any Time TD (+150)

• Panthers Under 10.5 Points (+110)

• Parlay Odds: +475

Concentrating on one game allows for more focused analysis and, as mentioned, building correlated parlays.

Correlated parlays are when the legs are tied together, which, by being in the same game, calls for that. So, if you think the Buccaneers will win easily and the Panthers won’t score, you can bet on the Buccaneers’ point spread, the under on the Panthers’ points, and pick a player on the Buccaneers to score a touchdown, as an example. 

Teasers

One specific type of parlay, a teaser allows bettors to manipulate point spreads or totals that could bridge the gap of making a bet tolerable while sacrificing odds.

Bettors choose from 6-, 6.5-, or 7-point teasers in the NFL.

Let’s use the parlay above with a six-point teaser. 

• Buccaneers -13 (-105) turns into Buccaneers -7

• Jets +1 (-110) turns into Jets +7

• Patriots -8 (-110) turns into Patriots -2

Original odds: +611

Six-point teaser odds: +160

The odds are reduced drastically with the point spreads changing by six points in favor of the bettors' wager. 

Round Robin

To participate in a Round Robin wager, a bettor's parlay must have three or more legs. 

The three legs are necessary because a Round Robin wager takes the legs a bettor chooses and creates as many parlays as possible.

With a three-leg parlay, bettors have three two-leg parlays to wager on. This allows a bettor to diversify the wagers across multiple formations of the original parlay.

However, a bettor must pick an amount to wager per Round Robin choice. 

 

Betting Featured Tools
  • PFF's Best Bets Tool reveals the bets PFF's data and algorithms give the biggest edge to within spread, total, player prop, and moneyline markets.

    Available with

  • PFF's Player Props Tool reveals betting opportunities within player prop markets.

    Available with

  • Power Rankings are PFF’s NFL power ratings based on weekly player grades in each facet of play. These power rankings are adjusted based on coach, quarterback and the market each season.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NFL game.

    Available with

  • PFF predictions and real time spread, moneyline and over/under lines for each NCAA game.

    Available with

Subscriptions

Unlock the 2023 Fantasy Draft Kit, with League Sync, Live Draft Assistant, PFF Grades & Data Platform that powers all 32 Pro Teams

$31 Draft Kit Fee + $8.99/mo
OR
$89.88/yr + FREE Draft Kit